Fantasy Basketball: Explaining top performers' early struggles

THE EDGE

Welcome to The Edge.

Every week, I’m going to be digging deep into the stats to find some numbers that slip under the radar that may give you an advantage in your fantasy basketball league.

Whether that’s in making a deal with another manager or grabbing that rising prospect off the waiver wire.

What a start to the NBA season with big injuries, impactful suspensions, and of course, Twitter fights. It’s important we don’t overreact at this stage, so I’ll check out how you can get The Edge by not making a catastrophic move by digging deeper into the beginning of the year.

PJ Tucker’s shooting

When people look at the fantasy ranks after a bit over a week of action, seeing PJ Tucker at number 67 for standard scoring stands out like a sore thumb. Last season, Tucker averaged 21.53 fantasy points per game, but this year, he is way up at 30.55 per game.

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Why? For a start, he is playing almost two extra minutes per game, but that isn’t it. He has doubled his scoring average, up from 7.3 points to 14.8 points per game.

That’s a big jump, but can it be sustained. The short answer is no. The long answer is also no, but with more detail. Tucker is hitting 70 percent of his shots at the rim, 57 percent of from the left corner three and 78 percent from the right corner three.

For players attempting at least 1.5 corner threes per game, Tucker leads the league in percentage from both the right and left corner.

He might be a solid shooter, but he isn’t the best in the league. Last season, he hit only 49 percent at the rim, 34 percent from the left corner and 43 percent from the right. So, to say a regression is coming feels prescient. While he is shooting well, he has stream value, but I doubt he is a 12 team guy this season.

Luka Dončić’s free throws

Dončić was the rightful rookie of the year last season, and a great fantasy option, ranking 25th overall in standard fantasy points leagues. It could’ve been better.

He hit only 71 percent of his free throws last season and that number dipped under 70 percent after the All-Star break, which kept his overall scoring numbers down. It was doubly weird considering that in his final season at Real Madrid his hit 79 percent and 81 percent the year prior.

This year, through four games, Dončić is 24-of-32, which is 75 percent. It’s still not Europe, but prior to a couple of late misses against the Nuggets, he was 20-of-24 from the line, which was 83 percent.

Dončić is up to rank 13 in fantasy points leagues so far this season, but I don’t see any reason why he can’t stick at 75 percent, at a minimum.

Devonte’ Graham as a key member of the Hornets

So, who had Devonte’ Graham as a top 75 fantasy player this season? Not me, although, I did say I wouldn’t be surprised if he was a better point guard than Terry Rozier, but I didn’t think the Hornets would play him over the new, expensive addition.

Well, it turns out I was sort of right. You could argue, easily, that Graham is better than Rozier, but they aren’t playing Graham over him, they are playing together. Graham has jumped ahead of Dwayne Bacon and Malik Monk in terms of role and playing time, getting 29 minutes a game and 29.8 fantasy points per game as a sixth man.

It’s not just the extra minutes that are making Graham a must roster fantasy player. His per 36 fantasy points numbers have risen from 27.56 to 36.90 and that’s in large part due to his true shooting jumping from an abysmal 45.9 percent up to an unsustainable 65.6 percent. What has caused this big jump in efficiency? His free throws have gone from 76 percent to 88 percent, but it’s the three-point shooting that stands out.

He hit just 28 percent of his triples last season and now it is up to 52 percent. Is it sustainable? Of course not, but it could fall off in a larger way than expected. He is not taking any corner threes, the easiest of all threes, and instead is at 53 percent on above the break threes. This is going to fall and it could fall hard, but with how he is facilitating and generating assists, I imagine him sticking as a fantasy option.

Eric Bledsoe’s struggles

Eric Bledsoe was the 50th ranked fantasy player last season. This season, it hasn’t been as good, as he comes in at 144th in only 26 minutes a game. Why?

Well, it seems to be going under the radar, but Bledsoe wasn’t even expected to be playing at the start of the season after suffering a rib cartilage fracture. The biggest indicator that there is an issue with his body is the fact that his free throws have been horrible.

He is a career 79 percent shooter from the line but has hit just 54 percent from the stripe this season. This has pushed him outside the top 120 this season. He also is at just 36 percent from the field, down from 48 percent last season.

I think Bledsoe is a strong buy-low target as once the rib heals, the percentages should rise.

Chris Paul’s assists

Looking at Chris Paul’s assist numbers sitting at 3.6 per game is staggering. Paul’s lowest total in the last nine years is 7.9, so to say he is struggling is an understatement. So, why are they so low? The first place to look is potential assists. This tracks whether it’s just a case of his teammates not hitting the shots that would result in assists.

CP3 is averaging 9.0 potential assists this season, so he is getting assists on just 40 percent of the assist opportunities. Comparing it to last season, Paul averaged 15.6 potential assists, for a total of 8.2 assists. That’s 52.6 percent, so if the Thunder hit shots at a better level, we will see the assist rise, but the fact that Paul is averaging six fewer potential assists per game is concerning.

Is it because he isn’t passing as much? No, as he is averaging just over four fewer passes per game, down from 50.8 to 46.6. That too, means it’s a different offensive system.

Paul is still running the offence and distributing the ball, but he isn’t doing to guys in an immediate scoring position as much. I think it is due to the fact that players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dennis Schröder are working as drivers more than spot up type players.

Last season, the Rockets had James Harden drive 19.6 times per game, a huge number, but we know that those drives were coming most of the time from Harden initiating himself. Outside of Harden and Paul himself, no other member of the Rockets overaged over eight drives per game. This season, with OKC, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 17.4 drives, up from his rookie season and Schröder is averaging 13.2 drives per game. These drives reduce Paul’s assist opportunities. That differing play style is impacting Paul’s fantasy value.

I expect the assists to rise as players hit their shots more, but it is unlikely to get back to where it was in the past.

Every week, I’ll be looking at some weird trends across the NBA and seeing what they mean, so make sure you’re checking out The Edge, here every Friday.