Premier League title: Will Arsenal, Liverpool or Manchester City win?

The Premier League trophy, Mikel Arteta, Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola

Manchester City moved to the Premier League summit with a 5-1 win over Luton on Saturday - but where does it leave the title race for now?

With Arsenal and Liverpool still to play this weekend, City's victory means just two points separate the top three, making it the tightest title race at this stage of a season since 1998-99.

"Tomorrow they have to play, all we can do is win our games and if we cannot do it, we congratulate them," City manager Pep Guardiola told BBC Match of the Day.

Mikel Arteta's Arsenal will return to the top of the table if they beat Aston Villa at the Emirates on Sunday, but if they fail do so then a Liverpool victory over Crystal Palace at Anfield would see a third different leader this weekend.

But should they both slip up, City - with 12 days before their next league match, at Brighton - will stay top for another week at least.

Man City cement position as favourites

Opta, with its 10,000 'supercomputer' simulations, believes Manchester City's dressing room is the place to be, having made them firmer favourites for the title after Saturday's results.

Despite their rivals each having a game in hand, City are rated as having a 45.8% chance of lifting the trophy for a fourth time in a row, while Liverpool are third favourites with 24%.

Predicted Premier League final table - Opta

1. Man City


1st - 73 points

2. Arsenal


2nd - 71 points

3. Liverpool


3rd - 71 points

Data experts at Nielsen's Gracenote, with their Euro Club Index model, also position City as favourites for the title.

"Liverpool's draw at Manchester United means that they lost the favourites tag after just one week," said Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Gracenote.

"This was their fourth time as favourites to win this season's Premier League but they have not managed to remain there for more than a fortnight."

Predicted Premier League final table - Nielsen's Gracenote

1. Man City


1st - 73 points

2. Liverpool


3rd - 71 points

3. Arsenal


2nd - 71 points

Current table

Premier League

1. Man City






2. Arsenal






3. Liverpool






If teams are level after 38 games, the title will be decided on goal difference, and if still level, goals scored

What are the remaining fixtures?


Manchester City



Crystal Palace (h)

Aston Villa (h)

Fulham (a)

Wolves (a)

Everton (a)

Brighton (a)

Chelsea (h)

West Ham (a)

Nottingham Forest (a)

Tottenham (a)


Tottenham (h)

Wolves (h)

Bournemouth (h)

Aston Villa (a)

Fulham (a)

Manchester United (a)

Tottenham (a)

Wolves (h)

West Ham (h)

Everton (h)

When were the other closest three-way title races?

There have been a handful of three-way Premier League title races where the teams have been similarly close towards the end of a 38-game season.

2013-14: By as late as 6 May 2014, only two points separated Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea. City won their game in hand to leapfrog a stumbling Liverpool - characterised by Steven Gerrard's famous slip in their 2-0 defeat against Chelsea and then Crystal Palace's comeback from three goals down to draw 3-3 - and snatched the title.

2001-02: On 23 April 2002, Arsenal led Liverpool by a point with Manchester United a further point back. But Arsenal had a game in hand and were partway through a run of 11 consecutive wins. They sealed the title by beating United at Old Trafford.

1995-96: In mid-March, with eight games left, Manchester United were level on 61 points with Newcastle, and Liverpool were on 59 points in third. Despite having played two games more at the time, Sir Alex Ferguson's side saw off the challenge of Kevin Keegan's Magpies.

What happened at this stage last year?

What if the teams finish level on points?

Should there be a tie, the league is decided on goal difference, then goals scored, then most points in the head-to-head matches, then most away goals in the head-to-head record.

Whatever happens, there are certain to be plenty of twists and turns between now and the final day of the season on 19 May.