AFL great's astonishing Geelong declaration: 'Not a threat'
The reigning AFL premiers are seemingly back on track, but there's one key stat Geelong fans should be keeping an eye on.
Reigning AFL premiers Geelong haven't exactly had the start to the 2023 season many had expected, but even few would have predicted they would be ruled out of contention after just five games. But that's exactly the conclusion AFL great David King and stats guru Daniel Hoyne have come to.
The Cats dropped their first three games of the season, becoming the first AFL team since 1976 to lose their first three games of the season after winning a grand final. Geelong have since steadied after losses to Collingwood, Carlton and the Gold Coast Suns, however some still need some convincing after wins in the last two rounds.
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Despite getting back on the winner's list, Geelong remain among the easiest teams to score against if they turn the ball over. Turnovers in their own forward 50 have been a particular pain point, with only the GWS Giants and Hawthorn conceding more points from such errors.
As a result, Hoyne said Geelong simply wouldn't be able to compete on a premiership level if they didn't address that issue and quickly. The Cats face Sydney at home on Saturday night, a chance to prove definitively that they still have the good to beat the best teams.
“Only Hawthorn and GWS have been easier to score against on turnover than what Geelong has this year and again the concern is that it is happening all over the ground – this isn’t just one area of the game,” Hoyne said on the Pure Footy show. “When Geelong turn the ball over in their forward half, there is no easier team to score against.”
Hoyne said Geelong would be 'gone' if that trend continued, saying they were 'not going to be a threat across the year' if they didn't improve. AFL great David King agreed, adding “If they stay at 16th, they probably miss the eight,".
Compared to round five last season, Geelong were ranked 7th in points conceded from turnovers - a substantially healthier figure and one ultimately reflective of their premiership ambition.
Geelong battling back after horrible start to AFL season
The Cats enjoyed a 47-point victory over West Coast in round five, helping cover the damage inflicted by their slow start to the season. That victory came at a cost however, with Rhys Stanley and Tyson Stengle both set to miss extended time through injury.
Scans have confirmed All-Australian goal-sneak Stengle fractured his left arm and ruckman Stanley fractured his right eye socket during Sunday's win at the Gather Round. Both will undergo surgery this week, with the club expecting them to be sidelined "for the medium term".
"There's not a team out there that won't have to endure these issues," Cats coach Chris Scott said after Sunday's 47-point victory. "It's part of the trick, I guess, over a long season where the competition is just so even and every game is potentially really challenging, the depth of your squad becomes a really important factor.
After starting the season 0-3, Geelong have bounced back with convincing victories over Hawthorn and the Eagles. They host Sydney at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday night in the two sides' first meeting since last year's grand final.
West Coast's injury crisis deepened at the weekend, with star veteran Elliot Yeo (groin) and first-year midfielder Elijah Hewett (ankle) both sent off for scans. Yeo, who battled osteitis pubis in 2020 and 2021, was unable to play out the loss to Geelong after injuring his groin.
With AAP
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