The WSL relegation battle, where two points separate the bottom six teams
The Women’s Super League (WSL) returns on Sunday after a fortnight of international football, with two rounds of fixtures before it takes its five-week winter break.
While the focus tends to be on the title race, there are more points between leaders Chelsea and second-placed Manchester City than between Liverpool in sixth and bottom side Crystal Palace in 12th.
Palace, West Ham United and Leicester City are all on five points, with Aston Villa and Everton on six. The league only has one relegation spot, which might make some teams feel safe, but why is it so tight at the bottom? And who is most likely to go down?
What does the narrow points gap tell us about the WSL this year?
Looking at the past four WSL seasons, teams to finish bottom have registered six, 11, 11, and 12 points. Bristol City’s tally of six points last season was the lowest total for a relegated side in the post-Covid-19 era but barring something extraordinary, that will be surpassed this year. If those in the bottom half continue to pick up points at their current rates, they would be expected to finish on around 14 points.
There are a couple of ways of interpreting this. You could argue the standard of less-established WSL teams is improving, leading to closer matches when the top teams drop points. However, Everton’s win over Liverpool is the only example of a team currently in the bottom half beating a side in the top half.
The opposite view would be that bottom-half teams are getting worse. The significant six-point gap between fifth and sixth supports this conclusion.
However, if we look at expected goal difference (xGD, an indicator of a team’s offensive and defensive performances) numbers, we can see this cluster of points is more reflective of outcomes than any real change in the quality of the sides involved.
When we look at the xGD per 90 minutes of the bottom five teams over the past five seasons, they have broadly followed the same pattern. Setting aside the occasional outlier, the trajectory across the positions is similar. The points-clustering in this season’s WSL table is not reflected in teams’ underlying performance — instead of near-identical xGDs, we see a range.
Regardless, the WSL table raises the question of whether there should be more than one relegation spot. With the league now being run by Women’s Professional Leagues Limited (WPLL), changes to the structure of the WSL and Championship are likely to be considered. Crystal Palace’s competitiveness this season supports the idea that promoted teams can hold their own in the division, and tight title races coupled with significant investment in the Championship suggests more teams in the second tier could accelerate their growth and compete in the WSL.
The excitement around a tight relegation battle could quickly dissipate if one team ends up being cut adrift at the bottom but more relegation spots would increase the jeopardy in the league. It could also encourage greater investment from teams in the WSL — at the moment, you only have to make sure you are not the worst team to maintain your status. The standards would have to rise if more teams felt threatened by relegation. The flip side is that clubs might not want to risk putting more money into their teams in case they do go down.
So who will avoid the drop?
The team that sticks out like a sore thumb in the group of teams hanging around the bottom are Aston Villa. Their xGD of +0.11 is the fourth-best in the league, superior to Manchester United and Brighton & Hove Albion. They are the only team outside the top three to have a positive one xGD. Who knows whether Villa can put together a run that helps them catch up with those sides at the top but, at the very least, they should be too good to go down, particularly as record-signing Gabi Nunes and other important players adapt.
Palace still feel like the favourites to go down. They are bottom and have the worst expected goal difference. This weekend’s meeting with West Ham could give either side crucial points. West Ham’s small squad has meant manager Rehanne Skinner tends to rely on the starting XI she picks, with only Manchester City making fewer substitutions this season. Injuries, such as the shoulder issue that caused Australia midfielder Katrina Gorry to miss the international break, could have a big impact.
That is something Everton have already needed to deal with after anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries to Spain forward Inma Gabarro and Italy midfielder Aurora Galli disrupted the start of their season. Despite this, Everton have looked the most robust against better opposition, having already picked up a point at the Emirates in a 0-0 draw against Arsenal, alongside that derby win against Liverpool.
For Leicester City, the big concern is goals. An ACL injury for their summer striker signing Noemie Mouchon was a big blow, with last season’s top scorer Jutta Rantala also absent with a knee problem. They have scored only two goals in eight WSL games and their expected goals (xG) total of 4.4 is the lowest in the division by two.
In past relegation battles, one in-form striker has made the difference. Bethany England’s arrival at Tottenham Hotspur in January 2023 was a great example. With new manager Amandine Miquel still getting to know her Leicester team, the hope is that results improve in the second half of the season. Wales forward Hannah Cain scoring the winner in their European Championship qualifier against the Republic of Ireland demonstrated that she is returning to form following her ACL injury, but they will be relying on her to start finding the back of the net.
With the league as tight as this, it only takes a couple of results to go one team’s way to change the picture entirely. It seems unlikely the relegation battle will stay this close but it looks set to be far more exciting than in years gone by.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
Crystal Palace, Leicester City, UK Women's Football
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