Women's Super League title run-in: Will Chelsea or Manchester City come out on top?
The Women's Super League title race has taken a huge swing in Manchester City's favour.
Gareth Taylor's side went six points clear of Chelsea at the top of the table and Emma Hayes' side fell at the first hurdle trying to close the gap.
After Wednesday's chaotic shock 4-3 defeat by Liverpool, Hayes conceded that the title race is now over and said "it's not to be" for Chelsea.
"Of course mathematically it's not but I think the title is done," she said.
"Our job between now and the end of the season is to keep pushing until the end but I think it will be very difficult."
Chelsea are seeking a fifth successive league title in boss Hayes' final season in charge, while City are looking to win the WSL for the first time since 2016.
Third-placed Arsenal are out of the title race after Sunday's draw with Everton.
How are things shaping up for the remaining games? Who has the tougher run-in? And who does Opta predict will win the title?
Current table
Women's Super League as of 17 April | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
1. Man City | 20 | 52 | +46 | WWWWW |
2. Chelsea | 19 | 46 | +38 | WWWWL |
3. Arsenal | 20 | 44 | +27 | LWWWD |
City overturned an early-season blip to win their past 14 WSL games, equalling the longest winning run in the competition's history.
If goal difference is level at the end of the season, the title outcome will be decided on goals scored - and City lead Chelsea 54-53 on that metric.
If teams are level on both goal difference and goals scored, the next deciding factor is the number of league wins, followed by head-to-head record against their title rivals. City would edge a head-to-head against Chelsea, having won away and drawn at home.
What are the remaining fixtures?
Chelsea | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
May | Bristol City (H) | Arsenal (H) |
Tottenham (A) | ||
Man Utd (A) | Aston Villa (A) |
Taylor's side still have to play third-placed Arsenal at home, while Chelsea face FA Cup finalists Tottenham and fifth-placed Manchester United.
What does the Opta 'supercomputer' suggest?
Predicted Women's Super League final table - Opta as of 21 April | ||
|---|---|---|
Team | % chance of winning title | Current position & points |
1. Manchester City | 90.7 | 1st - 52 points |
2. Chelsea | 9.3 | 2nd - 46 points |
Opta's 'supercomputer' prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta team rankings - based on historical and recent team performances.
These are simulated thousands of times to create the probabilities.