Women's basketball AP poll, takeaways: Does South Carolina have a case for No. 1?

The conference schedule is entering its midway point as the calendar changes to February. While it's typically a good indicator of which teams will be regular season champions, it’s tougher to discern in an era of bloated conferences. Plenty of conference leaders haven’t played other teams at the top. Only one program has more than a one-game lead in the five major conferences.

The one exception is typical: Connecticut (19-2, 10-0) holds a 1.5-game edge in the Big East after its 72-61 victory at Creighton (16-4, 8-1).

The biggest game of the week between South Carolina and Tennessee on Monday highlights two programs delivering some of the tougher questions in the AP poll.

Does South Carolina have a case for No. 1?

It is hard to ignore what South Carolina has done since losing to UCLA in November. It’s near impossible to shut out what the Gamecocks have done this month alone. They absolutely have a case for No. 1, even though their one loss is to the team ranked No. 1 since Week 4.

After a 66-56 win over then-No. 5 LSU on Friday night, South Carolina is 9-1 in Quad 1 games. No other team has more than nine wins. No, they’re not undefeated. But they’re 19-1 playing the toughest schedule in the country with a lone loss to UCLA in November. In eight wins against AP-ranked opponents, their margin of victory is 23 points per game. UCLA’s is 13.6 in five wins.

South Carolina is winning SEC games by an average margin of 26.5 points (Kentucky is second at 14.7). The average margin UCLA wins by in the Big Ten is 19.8, trailing USC (22.4). Deciding between those requires the subjective measurement of which conference is better halfway into the docket.

UCLA is a fair No. 1 selection, too. The Bruins are undefeated in a power conference heading into February and that’s no easy feat. But to say they should be a consensus pick is ignoring the other spectacular performances to this point.

Are Tennessee’s close calls still top-20 worthy?

On its face, the Lady Vols resume outlines a four-loss team failing in conference play. They’re ninth in the conference standings and the only ranked team with a losing conference record.

Tennessee’s signature non-conference wins are back-to-back contests against Florida State at home in the SEC/ACC Challenge and on a neutral court over Iowa in the Champions Classic. The former is looking better every week, taking the place of the latter as the Hawkeyes skid.

They have a losing record (2-4) in Quad 1 games and are a shade over .500 vs the NET top 100, as of games through Saturday.

Yet, they’re still one of the best 20 teams in the nation, where they’ve remained in the AP poll since re-entering on Dec. 9 at No. 19. And there’s no reason to move them around much.

Their four losses are by a combined eight points to Oklahoma (one point), Vanderbilt (one), LSU (two) and Texas (four). All are top 20 in NET, led by Texas (3) and LSU (9). Unlike earlier losses to the Sooners and Commodores, Tennessee didn’t have to dig out of a hole against the Longhorns last week. The game never swayed more than six points either way and Texas scored the game’s final four points.

To be fair, the Lady Vols haven’t been able to find winning baskets in the waning minutes and that’s an issue looking toward March. Moral victories don’t mean much and head coach Kim Caldwell called her team out on close calls last week ahead of the Texas game.

Caldwell missed the loss against Texas on Thursday after giving birth to her first child earlier in the week. She said she will return to the sidelines when Tennessee hosts South Carolina on Monday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2).

Can TCU hold its double-digit leads in March?

TCU is a late-tournament caliber team through three quarters. In the fourth, it’s touch-and-go. The Horned Frogs spit up a large second-half lead for the fourth consecutive game on Sunday, letting a 22-point cushion sink to three in the final 15 seconds.

Late free throws pushed TCU (20-2, 8-1 Big 12) to its first win over Baylor since Feb. 28, 1990. Texas native Sedona Prince said snapping the 37-game losing streak was a highlight of her career having watched the great national championship Bears teams as a kid. It gives them the tiebreaker over Baylor (16-5, 6-2) for the regular season Big 12 title. Neither has played Kansas State (19-2, 7-1).

The Horned Frogs weren’t so fortunate earlier in the week when they were outscored 36-20 by Oklahoma State in the second half of a 60-59 loss to the unranked squad. Big leads disappeared last week against Central Florida (90-81 win) and Utah (81-73).

“I wish it was that easy where you go in at halftime and other teams don’t make adjustments,” TCU head coach Mark Campbell said on Sunday. “But our group is growing through that. The Oklahoma State game, the game before, I will take a lot of blame for not being able to manage the second half wisely. At the same time, we’re a new group that’s going through this journey together. The way that they managed the clock and managed the end of the game today was night and day from the Oklahoma State game.”

TCU is a vastly different team from its days of holding an emergency walk-on session to fill its roster a year ago. Fifth-year guard Hailey Van Lith improved at the point guard position, averaging a career-best 5.8 assists (17th in DI) and near a career-best scoring (18.3 ppg ranks 54th). The two-man game with the 6-foot-7 Prince is netting career efficiency numbers for the center while Madison Conner and Agnes Emma-Nnopu fuel the team’s top-10 3-point percentages.

Will Maryland injuries lead to full free fall?

Of all the teams that tumbled last week, Maryland’s free fall is the most crushing. The Terps began the week on the wrong side of a blowout to then-No. 7 Texas on national television, fell to then-No. 12 Ohio State days later and appeared back in a prime-time spot unable to keep pace with No. 1 UCLA.

The first-half performance against the nation’s best team on Sunday was valiant given their situation. Maryland (16-4, 6-3 Big Ten) is without two of its three leading scorers in Bri McDaniel and Shyanne Sellers. They are the only ones averaging double digits and they are first and second in team assists.

“We’re just trying to adapt as quickly as we can,” head coach Brenda Frese said. “You look at when you’re in this grind, and you’re literally doing one-day preps of practices, and … it’s hard. You’re doing it with limited practice time and a lot of film. So we’re trying to play to our strengths.”

McDaniel is out for the season and Sellers, named Big Ten player of the week seven days ago, is considered day-to-day. The loss shifts the Big Ten regular season odds further in the favor of UCLA (20-0, 8-0) and USC (18-1, 8-0) favor. The Los Angeles programs will host Ohio State (19-1, 8-1) next week.

Games of the week

South Carolina (19-1, 7-0 SEC) at Tennessee (15-4, 3-4 SEC), Monday at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2) — The Gamecocks are taking aim at the final gem in their midseason gauntlet.

North Carolina (18-4, 6-3 ACC) at California (18-3, 6-2), Thursday at 10 p.m. ET (ACCN) — The Bears are one of the season’s surprises shaking up the ACC after realignment, but they’ve yet to see most of the conference’s best.

Official AP rankings

1. UCLA
2. South Carolina
3. Notre Dame
4. USC
5. Texas
6. UConn
7. LSU
8. Ohio State
9. TCU
10. Duke
11. Kansas State
12. Kentucky
13. Oklahoma
14. Maryland
15. North Carolina
16. Michigan State
17. NC State
18. Tennessee
19. Cal
20. Georgia Tech
21. West Virginia
22. Alabama
23. Vanderbilt
24. Oklahoma State
25. Florida

Yahoo Sports AP ballot

1.South Carolina
2. UCLA
3. Notre Dame
4. USC
5. Texas
6. UConn
7. LSU
8. TCU
9. Kentucky
10. Ohio State
11. Kansas State
12. Duke
13. Maryland
14. North Carolina
15. Tennessee
16. Oklahoma
17. Georgia Tech
18. Michigan State
19. West Virginia
20. NC State
21. Michigan
22. Baylor
23. Vanderbilt
24. Alabama
25. Creighton