Why all 14 NFL playoff teams won't win Super Bowl 59, from a Chiefs collapse to Lions' injury woes

14 teams have arrived in the 2025 NFL Playoffs with dreams of a championship parade rolling through the streets of their home towns. 13 will have the opportunity to day-drink alongside throngs of screaming fans cruelly ripped from them.

While the regular season suggests a Detroit Lions-Kansas City Chiefs clash for Super Bowl 59, everyone is vulnerable -- especially in a league where a dozen teams have to fight their way up from the Wild Card round. There isn't a team without a fatal flaw, and even if that doesn't dim the lights on their season, cruel bounces and poorly timed mistakes can unravel a year's worth of hard work in a matter of seconds.

Let's talk about what could keep all 14 of this year's playoff teams from hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy in February, from the Chiefs' tendency to play with fire to Detroit's terrible injury luck.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens' belief in their "road dog" mentality is all well and good but their likely playoff path couldn't be more daunting. In order to capture the third Super Bowl victory in franchise history, Baltimore is presented with a path that may feature its most-hated division rival (Pittsburgh), followed by visits to Buffalo and Kansas City against the NFL's other two best players.

That is essentially asking for perfection from a flawed team with two playoff wins in the Lamar Jackson era. Speaking of Jackson, as a passer, the reigning MVP has sparkled during the regular season in his career and usually wilted in the playoffs. In six career postseason games, Jackson averages a 75.7 passer rating, nearly two interceptions, and a completion percentage of less than 60 percent. Another massive dropoff in production from Jackson in this fashion would almost certainly mean another unceremonious Ravens exit.

Buffalo Bills

As explosive as the Bills' offense is, it's not as highly rated as a Ravens they'll likely face in the Divisional Round. Get past Baltimore and a likely date with a Chiefs team beginning to fire on all offensive cylinders awaits. Kansas City has been the terminus of Buffalo's Super Bowl hopes three of the last four seasons.

As good as that defense can be, it's relying on a combination of young players and aging veterans to level up after a good-not-great regular season. The Bills have given up at least 35 points three times this season and 400 yards four times, all against fellow playoff teams. Another collapse could prove too much for Allen to fire back from.

Denver Broncos

Nix is a great story. He's one of the bigger reasons the Broncos were able to return to the NFL's second season. When all is said and done, his rookie campaign might be remembered as one of the better iterations in league history.

But that's the rub. Nix is still a rookie at the helm of a still-developing offense playing second fiddle to a defense with no discernible flaws. Most disconcertingly, Nix's over-conservative tendencies -- despite throwing 29 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions, he averaged just 6.7 yards per pass attempt (a concerning number when you consider it's inflated by 67 deep throws, second only to Josh Allen amongst NFL QBs) -- will not fly against better defenses playing up tighter on the Broncos.

On top of an offense constructed around Nix getting the ball quickly out of his hand, Denver also lacks the firepower of the other AFC contenders. Receiver Courtland Sutton projects as more of a No. 2 in a more talented offense. Marvin Mims Jr. is a fun deep threat, a good toy to have, but he doesn't do much else yet. You can stash him away in the chest most days if he isn't running straight and fast. The Broncos are on the right path to contention, but they're probably a year away from seriously threatening the AFC's hierarchy.

Detroit Lions

The Lions' defensive injury situation seems a lot better after turning Sam Darnold into a pumpkin and with an additional week to rest, but the other NFC heavyweights likely won't be so kind. There is a realistic situation where Detroit has to face down Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay, Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley behind an elite offensive line, and one of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Lamar Jackson en route to the Super Bowl.

No matter the Lions' belief, cohesion, and connectiveness, that is A LOT to ask for a shorthanded unit in successive weeks. It'll require some timely playmaking Detroit has proven capable of but it might ultimately be too much to ask in the crucible of sudden-death football in the winter.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers' record against fellow playoff teams is 2-5. Those two wins came against a not-yet-fully-formed Los Angeles Rams in the midst of a 1-4 start and the Houston Texans, who may be 2025's weakest qualifier. They were a blocked field goal away from going 0-6 against NFC North opponents, which features two teams they could see in the postseason and, importantly, a very bad Chicago Bears team.

Jordan Love hasn't yet cleaned up his worst habits and is liable to throw an ill-conceived pass from a bad situation that changes the flow of the game or eliminates his team's comeback chances (see last season's come-from-ahead Divisional Round loss to the 49ers). As good as Edgerrin Cooper has been, the team's off-ball linebackers have been vulnerable to the pass and could get carved up against dynamic tight ends… in a playoff race that includes players like T.J. Hockenson, Sam LaPorta, Dallas Goedert and a still-somehow-soul-crushing Zach Ertz.

Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud regressed from the soaring heights he enjoyed in 2023, and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik's nothing scheme has done little to help him. Without Diggs and Dell in the fold, the Texans' offense itself is one-dimensional, predictable, and easy to gameplan for.

Houston's defense is solid (sixth in EPA and yards allowed) but will be tested against more balanced AFC powers who can grind and wait them out. By virtue of winning the lowly AFC South, the Texans have more of a pity playoff berth than anything else.

Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City's 15-2 record comes on the strength of an 11-0 record in one possession games. The last team to be this prodigiously good in close games was the 2022 Minnesota Vikings... who promptly lost their playoff opener to Daniel Jones and the New York Giants. There's a bit more assurance here considering this is a Patrick Mahomes operation, but it's fair to wonder if the Chiefs will finally get burned after playing with fire one too many times.

While the offense has clicked lately and will benefit from a healthy Hollywood Brown in the lineup, it's not the death machine it once was. Mahomes's average target distance is a career low 6.2 yards downfield and his 3,945 passing yards are also a career worst. Travis Kelce's 6.2 yards per target are by far the lowest of his career. If Kansas City needs late game magic and big chunk plays it's in good hands -- but the team's passing attack clearly isn't as consistently dangerous as it was in prior Super Bowl runs.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have been punching above their weight class all season. Justin Herbert has been wonderful, but what happens when he needs to rely on Quentin Johnston or Will Dissly to beat tight coverage on third down? What happens when the AFC's elite quarterbacks decide to pick on Kristian Fulton, then use his targets as a decoy to keep Derwin James from wrecking plays?

Los Angeles has the foundation to build a mansion, but is missing some key material. It's 2-5 against fellow playoff opponents in 2024. The only two wins came against the AFC's seventh seed, a Denver Broncos team with rookie Bo Nix at quarterback. This has been a great revival, but the leap from "also ran" to "world champion" may be too much for even Jim Harbaugh and Herbert to conquer in one season.

Los Angeles Rams

There's no need to sugarcoat it. The savvy Rams need not fear any of their potential playoff opponents, including the 14-win Minnesota team visiting Los Angeles on Monday night. But by starting from the No. 4 seed, this top-heavy roster's road to New Orleans may force them to run through the top three teams in the NFC just to get to the Super Bowl -- including games in front of rabid fans in Philadelphia and Detroit.

The Rams have the mettle to rattle off consecutive wins against such a murderer's row of competition. But at a certain point, their massive deficit in the trenches -- especially against the Lions and Eagles -- could come back to haunt them. Winter football is won by bullying people up front. The Rams are a "prettier" team built on skill and flash. They can't get thrown off their game (or out of rhythm) in advance of an intimidating path to Super Bowl 59.

Minnesota Vikings

Was Week 18 merely the function of an incredible Aaron Glenn Detroit Lions defense? Or is Sam Darnold showing cracks of regression? We've seen him backslide before, but never after such a long period of stellar play. That's the sword dangling over the Vikings' heads; no one will feel safe until the Lombardi Trophy is in their hands.

Furthermore, how long can Brian Flores's blitz-heavy aggression pay off? There's more to Minnesota's brilliance than just sending the farm -- the team's stunts and simulated pressure are a nightmare for any quarterback to sort. But it relies heavily on steady play from a secondary made up of old guys flying high once more (Harrison Smith, Stephon Gilmore) or young-ish defensive backs putting in some of their finest work (Byron Murphy, Cam Bynum). One misplaced cog threatens the whole machine. That could be all it takes to end a brilliant season in the Twin Cities.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles' wealth of resources aside, the Jalen Hurts of it all threatens to derail this entire operation. In the years since his Super Bowl 57 performance with nearly 400 all-purpose yards and four touchdowns, Hurts has vacillated between electric dynamo and a perplexing enigma. At times, when out of rhythm, Hurts can't hit the broad side of a barn with a pass when you take away his legs.

By virtue of his supporting cast and a coaching staff that at least understands how to put him in position to succeed, Hurts has a high floor for his success. He more or less has to simply show up and the Eagles will probably be OK.

The question is whether that will happen against an NFC gauntlet featuring some of the game's brightest defensive minds like Minnesota's Brian Flores and Detroit's Aaron Glenn. Once one of football's most promising talents under center, Hurts has lost the benefit of the doubt. He needs a sterling postseason to reassume any logical faith.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Since Week 15, only one quarterback in the league has been more damaging to his offense than Russell Wilson: Cleveland Browns third-stringer Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

Pittsburgh's defense is loaded with big names but given up at least 24 points five of the last seven weeks (in part due to an offense that hasn't had a turnover-free game since before Halloween). You can win a Super Bowl with a mediocre quarterback and a great defense. Can you get beyond the Divisional Round with a bad quarterback and a good defense?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

As good as the Buccaneers are on offense, they are the inverse on defense. Seriously, it's stunning how a team coached by Todd Bowles seemed completely incapable of getting consistent stops when it mattered. Tampa Bay was just 18th in total defense, 17th in defensive EPA per play, and 16th in scoring defense this season. Some of these are roster deficiencies -- the Buccaneers do not have the same elite pass rush that won them Super Bowl 55.

Some of these are technical, borne of a passive defensive scheme that lets quarterbacks and runners alike get way too comfortable before tearing the Buccaneers apart. Vita Vea can't swallow offensive lines by himself every play, dearest readers. A championship-caliber offense might be enough to carry Tampa Bay to a Super Bowl ... but only depending on the matchups it sees along the way.

Washington Commanders

The Commanders' defense is a below average unit and hoping Marshon Lattimore can fix it is using Twizzlers as triage stitches. Washington needs its secondary to hold up in one-on-one situations thanks to a sixth-ranked blitz rate. But even if it does there's no guarantee things will go coordinator Joe Whitt's way because the team's pressure rate doesn't even crack the top 16. While that unit can rise up in big moments it's fair to doubt a team that's given up big point totals to fellow playoff teams.

That could leave Jayden Daniels to rise up and claim his glory, but history has not been kind to rookie quarterbacks. No first year quarterback has ever made it to the Super Bowl. Only seven second-year passers have gotten there in 116 opportunities. If opponents can slow Terry McLaurin, it could be a long day. The Commanders are 3-3 when he had fewer than 60 receiving yards and 8-2 when he had more.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: Why all 14 NFL playoff teams won't win Super Bowl 59, from a Chiefs collapse to Lions' injury woes