What's next for the Vikings after accidentally reliving the pain of 2022 all over again?
In the end, the Minnesota Vikings' 2024 season looked a lot like their 2022.
That year Kirk Cousins, a transplant veteran quarterback, led them to 13 wins on the back of an 11-0 record in one-score games. It all came crashing down in their first playoff game, scuttling the championship hopes of a longtime franchise that's never won a Super Bowl.
In 2024, Sam Darnold rose up from backup status and led Minnesota to 14 wins on the back of a 9-1 record in one score games. It all came crashing down in their first playoff game -- though this time the Vikings were spared the ignominy of losing to Daniel Jones in the Wild Card Round and were instead served a 27-9 beating at the hands of Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams.
The parallels aren't perfect. The 2022 team had one of the league's worst defenses while 2024's version was elite. But the result was the same -- more disappointment for a franchise that's been steeped in it since its inception. What happens now?
1. What do the Vikings have to build around in 2025?
Minnesota has a devastating core of downfield targets that can elevate any quarterback. Wideouts Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, paired with tight end T.J. Hockenson, can crush defenses at every level, breaking open games with deep balls or winding runs after the catch.
They'll be tasked with making J.J. McCarthy a viable starter at some point, though whether or not that's in 2025 will depend on what the team does with 2024 starter Sam Darnold, who took the reins when a preseason injury put the rookie on the shelf. Whomever is throwing passes will have a solid offensive line in front of him, particularly with left tackle Christian Darrisaw set to return to the lineup.
The other benefit is an aggressive defense that jumped from good to great this winter. That unit may be without coordinator Brian Flores if he takes a head coaching role as that carousel spins. Even if he doesn't, established starters like Ivan Pace Jr., Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard remain under contract along with 2024 first round pass rusher Dallas Turner.
Monday night’s loss leaves the Vikings with the 24th pick in this spring’s NFL Draft. That's one of only three picks they currently have in 2025, having traded away the rest -- mostly in the deal that netted Minnesota two first round picks (used on McCarthy and Turner) in 2024. The team's other two picks won't come until the fifth round; their own and the Detroit Lions (acquired in exchange for Za'Darius Smith). There is good news, however; losing Kirk Cousins to free agency should glean a compensatory selection at the end of the third round this April.
The Vikings will have an estimated $69.5 million in salary cap space for 2025, per Over the Cap — sixth-most in the NFL. That's a lot of cash, but Minnesota also has a lot of big name free agents to address.
2. Which players could leave the Vikings in 2025?
The following players played at least 50 percent of Minnesota's offensive or defensive snaps and will be free agents in 2025:
QB Sam Darnold
CB Byron Murphy
LT Cam Robinson
S Camryn Bynum
S Harrison Smith
CB Stephon Gilmore
RB Aaron Jones
DL Jonathan Bullard
CB Shaquill Griffin
Additionally, former Giants quarterback Daniel Jones, guard Dalton Risner and edge rusher Jihad Ward will be free agents as well.
3. Offseason priority No. 1: Who's gonna be QB1?
Sam Darnold had a meteoric rise, which meant his two starts once the calendar flipped to 2025 left a massive crater after he burned back through the atmosphere. Let's compare.
Darnold, Weeks 1-17: 68 percent completion rate, 260 passing yards per game, 8.2 yards per attempt, 36 total touchdowns, 16 turnovers, 106.4 passer rating and 106.7 expected points added (EPA) (6.7 EPA per game). The Vikings went 14-2.
Darnold, Week 18 and Wild Card Round: 53 percent completion rate, 205.5 passing yards per game, 5.1 yards per attempt, one touchdown, two turnovers, 66.4 passer rating and -42.8 EPA (-21.4 EPA per game). The Vikings went 0-2.
This was always a concern with Darnold. He shined in stretches with the New York Jets before becoming untenable. He wrapped up an otherwise unremarkable two-year stint with the Carolina Panthers on a five-game heater after replacing Baker Mayfield. He has the raw ability to be a good NFL quarterback, but no one has figured out how to unlock that over a full season or beyond.
Now he's a free agent. Other teams will be interested, in part because of how good he was for most of 2024 and also because this year's crop of free agent quarterbacks is, to use a technical term, total butt. After Darnold, the next best available veteran on the open market is... Russell Wilson? Daniel Jones? Kirk Cousins if the Atlanta Falcons release him?
McCarthy is a high value young quarterback and already on the roster, but he's more of a lottery ticket than sound investment. He was great in a run-heavy offense at Michigan but has yet to throw an NFL pass. No matter what the Vikings decide with Darnold, they'll need a steady hand to serve as his sherpa and potential fill-in to begin 2025... just like Darnold was last spring.
Minnesota won't leave free agency without a veteran quarterback. The good news is Darnold may have gotten a lot cheaper. The bad news is it's because he just helped tank the Vikings' Super Bowl hopes.
4. Offseason priority No. 2: Reinforce the secondary
Defensive coordinator Brian Flores blitzed less than he did in 2023 (40.6 percent to 48 percent) but still led the NFL. In that span, Minnesota's expected points added (EPA) per opponent dropback dropped from 0.023 (14th best in the league) to -0.035 (second best). What made this possible? Adding Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel in free agency certainly helped, but the crux was a secondary that rose to the occasion.
The Vikings relied on a combination of aging veterans and discarded starters in the secondary and thrived. Minnesota's 82.4 passer rating allowed was second only to the Detroit Lions. The team's -0.10 EPA/pass thrown was seventh best.
Harrison Smith remained a deterrent at 35 years old. Stephon Gilmore was a reliable starter at 34. Byron Murphy was a first-time Pro Bowler two seasons after the Arizona Cardinals let him leave as a free agent. Shaquill Griffin's 75.8 passer rating allowed was a career low in a year in which he played for the same team all season. Cam Bynum's 77.6 rating allowed was also a personal record.
All five of these players are free agents this spring. Smith and Gilmore could run it back or opt for retirement. Murphy and Bynum feel like they'll be priorities when it comes to general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's offseason wish list, but there's no guarantee they'll return. Griffin is a bit more volatile -- the Vikings are his fifth team in the last five seasons -- but could re-sign en route to a key depth role as well.
With extremely limited draft assets and the possibility of an offensive slump behind a first-year starter at quarterback, keeping this defense stout is a big deal. So who stays and who goes for a Minnesota roster that may be unable to keep the band together?
5. Offseason priority No. 3: Room for offensive line upgrades?
As previously mentioned, Christian Darrisaw's return from a knee injury will be a boon to his offense. He and Brian O'Neill are a reliable tackle combination that can shield McCarthy or Veteran Quarterback X from the NFC North's most dangerous edge rushers.
Things aren't as stable inside. Dalton Risner is a free agent. Pro Football Focus rated Blake Brandel 65th out of 77 qualified guards this season. The offensive line, as a whole, graded out as roughly average.
Roughly average could be the equivalent of filling up a Lamborghini with kerosene when it comes to getting the ball to Jefferson, Addison and Hockenson. Minnesota's 2.3 yards before contact on run plays this fall ranked just 23rd in the NFL. If the Vikings want to create a pathway to success like the one McCarthy had in Ann Arbor -- Michigan ran the ball 37.5 times per game and threw it 24.1 as McCarthy brought the Wolverines a national title -- upgrades need to be made inside.
Where's that going to come from? The middle rounds of the draft are a great place to start, but those picks don't exist outside of the compensatory third rounder that will clock in somewhere around pick No. 100.
Could that be enough to find a plug-and-play road grader to boost the run game? Will Adofo-Mensah trade back from No. 24 to fill his draft coffers and take a shotgun approach to reloading on both sides of the ball? Or will the Vikings use some of that cap space to throw cash at notable interior linemen like Ben Bredeson, Kevin Zeitler or, if they're really bold, Trey Smith in free agency?
This article originally appeared on For The Win: What's next for the Vikings after accidentally reliving the pain of 2022 all over again?
