What's next for the Texans after the Chiefs ran roughshod over C.J. Stroud?
The 2024 Houston Texans fell short of expectations. Then they exceeded them.
Houston's 10-7 record was as much a function of playing in a toothless AFC South as anything else. The Texans offense took a step backward after 2023's emergence. C.J. Stroud backslid, a robust receiving corps was waylaid by injuries and the team had exactly one regular season win over a fellow playoff team (in Week 5 over the Buffalo Bills).
They matched that total in the Wild Card Round by solidly dispatching the Los Angeles Chargers, bullying Justin Herbert into more interceptions in one afternoon (four) than he threw all season (three). Houston acquitted itself well one week later against the defending two-time world champions, but ultimately lost to the Kansas City Chiefs 23-14.
The Texans' place in the AFC South means they'll remain in contention with an eye on the postseason pretty much no matter what. Let's look at what they'll work with in 2025 -- and what needs to be fixed.
1. What do the Texans have to build around in 2025?
It starts with C.J. Stroud, who shook off some sophomore slump malaise in time to build optimism for 2025. Stroud took a step backward after 2023's rookie of the year performance, in part due to weak blocking and a string of injuries that deteriorated his wide receiver depth. His -0.07 expected points added (EPA) per dropback ranked 25th among 32 qualified quarterbacks this fall.
He was more composed in the postseason, slinging the ball efficiently and using his legs more to generate first downs. He'll have a revitalized Joe Mixon in the backfield and Nico Collins to lead his receiving corps. Tank Dell will return from a devastating knee injury at some point, hopefully as viable an inside-out target as he was before. Laremy Tunsil and Blake Fisher are at different points in their NFL careers, but should be viable starters for the foreseeable future.
While Stroud may be the most important young building block, he's not alone. Houston rose to a top 10 passing defense behind a rising secondary led by All-Pro Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre as well as a pair of 21-year-olds in Kamari Lassiter and Calen Bullock. By those powers combined, the Texans' 83.7 passer rating allowed ranked fourth in the NFL. In front of them, Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter anchored a pass rush whose 38 percent pressure rate ranked second.
Saturday's loss locks Houston into the 25th pick in this spring's NFL Draft. Even with Stroud under contract on an inexpensive rookie contract, the Texans are slated to have just an estimated $6 million in salary cap space next season -- 24th-most in the NFL, per Over the Cap. That's not much room with which to maneuver, but the good news is Houston doesn't have too many pending free agents who'll be priority re-signings this spring.
2. What players could leave the Texans in 2025?
The following players played at least 50 percent of X's offensive or defensive snaps and will be free agents in 2025:
S Eric Murray
Additionally, Stefon Diggs and Derek Barnett are both pending free agents along with starting defensive tackle Foley Fatukasi.
3. Offseason priority No. 1: Offensive line help
Behold, a brief summation of Houston's offensive struggles in 2024.
the Chiefs put Shaq Mason through hell with the simulated pressure. another big Spags playoff performance en route pic.twitter.com/1wRxKwJyuO
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) January 18, 2025
Despite having Tunsil on one edge, the Texans' 37.9 percent pressure rate allowed was a bottom-five mark. Stroud's average throw distance dropped by roughly a yard as his pressure rate rose. Mixon had a solid season even if his 2.2 yards before contact per carry was beneath the league average.
2024 second-round pick Fisher struggled in stretches at right tackle but should be better next fall. Kenyon Green failed to live up to his first round draft status at left guard. Former tackle Tytus Howard moved into that slot and was generally average. 2023 second round pick Juice Scruggs has failed to seize a starting spot. Mason is on the wrong side of 30 and played soundly below average football in 2024.
By those powers combined, Stroud was pressured on more than half his dropbacks in Kansas City. He was sacked eight times and hit 14 more.
DEFENSE WOKE UP HUNGRY TODAY 🍽️ pic.twitter.com/JGw5bKEAHF
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 18, 2025
There will be several stabilizing veteran guards and centers available on the open market this spring, including Kevin Zeitler, Ben Bredeson and Josh Myers. It will be tough to capitalize on that thanks to limited cap space, but there should be some low-cost upgrades who can help in free agency before making further moves in the draft.
4. Offseason priority No. 2: Off-ball linebackers
Henry To'oto'o allowed a 125.8 passer rating in coverage and a missed tackle rate over 10 percent, per Pro Football Reference. Christian Harris averaged a missed tackle per game and finished the regular season with a 39.1 (out of 100) PFF grade. Azeez Al-Shaair was best known in 2024 for nearly committing manslaughter on a sliding Trevor Lawrence.
All three of these guys are under contract for 2025 and both To'oto'o and Harris are both 23 years old. But help is needed for a team that got roasted by a 35-year-old Travis Kelce in what was easily his biggest game of the season (seven catches, 117 yards and a touchdown). Andy Reid saw Houston's cornerbacks, quietly whispered "nope" and attacked the middle of the field instead to great effect.
Finding linebackers who can help in coverage, fill gaps against the run and bring occasional pressure via blitz is a big ask. Big name signings fail to pan out, while discarded vets like De'Vondre Campbell and Zack Baun have gone from bit players to All-Pros in recent years.
Could someone like Christian Rozeboom bring stability to an uneven group? Would general manager Nick Caserio find a way to throw cash at a bigger name like Baun or Bobby Wagner? Either way, addressing the linebacker room would solidify the one noticeable weakness in an otherwise impressive defense.
5. Offseason priority No. 3: One more playmaker
Joe Mixon was a Pro Bowler in 2024, but he's got nearly 2,300 career touches and hasn't averaged more than 4.1 yards per carry since 2018. Dameon Pierce's 2024 suggests he may be best used as a platoon back. Dalton Schultz hasn't approached his Dallas Cowboys peak in two seasons with Houston. Nico Collins is great, but Tank Dell's knee injury could permanently affect his play and the depth chart behind him is limited.
Fixing the offensive line is the first step in reviving Stroud, but getting him another set-it-and-forget-it player alongside Collins is vital to recovering the optimism vacated as he ran for his life in 2024. Finding that player in free agency is a likely non-starter. Would Caserio re-sign Diggs at 32 years old? Would he roll the dice on another short term trade rental after a good, not great debut from his last high profile veteran acquisition?
The more likely path is to address this need at the draft. That may not be in the first round -- see priority No. 1 -- but this franchise has developed receiving talent well in recent years and could take another swing on a mid-draft pass catcher who could be a boon. How about Bowling Green tight end Harold Fannin Jr. in the second round? Actually, now that I think of that, it kinda rules.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: What's next for the Texans after the Chiefs ran roughshod over C.J. Stroud?