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Week 16 Care/Don't Care: We should hope that the Cowboys don't start over in 2025

matt harmon
Fantasy analyst
·22-min read

We will all remember the 2024 season as a lost year in Dallas. It felt like the Cowboys didn’t do enough in the offseason to make the roster talent good enough to be a real winner and we quickly found out that was the truth of the matter. Injuries to critical players, none more crucial than quarterback Dak Prescott, exposed the lack of overall depth across the roster. That essentially marked the end of the road for Dallas.

However, we shouldn’t overlook this final chapter of the season as it relates to decision-making for what’s next for this Cowboys team. When I watch this team fight to the very bitter end of the line this season, I don’t see a team that’s quit on the coaching staff. This is not a group of play-callers overmatched schematically.

Rather, we watched the Cowboys, who have every reason in the world to start letting their eyes wander toward offseason vacation plans, keep their gaze forward and put together a high-effort win against a team that controlled its own playoff destiny prior to Week 16.

After a Week 6 blowout to Detroit, I’d have told you it was inevitable the Cowboys would be careening toward an offseason rebuild. When they came out of their bye, lost two more games and put Dak Prescott on IR, I’d have been willing to lock it in that Mike McCarthy, Mike Zimmer and the entire coaching staff would be cleaned out. Now, we’re watching a team that’s won four of its last five and put an exclamation point on that stretch with an aggressive win over Tampa Bay.

On defense the last month-plus, with Micah Parsons back and fully healthy, we’re finally seeing the unit we hoped for with Zimmer at the helm. Zimmer’s defenses make you work for it up front and play with a physical edge on the back end. This win over the Bucs perfectly encapsulates why that works in the modern NFL. You’re going to give up big plays — no well-designed offense can be fully shut out in today’s game — but you have to create turnovers with chaos and beat up receivers with physicality at the catch point.

Everything I’ve seen out of the Cowboys' defense since Parsons returned makes me want to extend the Zimmer experience for at least another year.

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Offensively, Mike McCarthy gets plenty of heat and has issues as a head coach. However, he has kept his side of the ball on track with issues at premium positions. Those are issues created by injuries and how the front office left this group out to dry with a complete ambivalence to acquiring talent. Yet, the unit remains competent and capable of winning games. It’s a scheme that works, fits the highly paid quarterback and can be better expressed when the offensive line youth develops and there are real threats at pass-catcher.

Dallas runs itself like a soap opera — not my words — but the most logical next move for this team to make in January once the season wraps is its most boring path. The Cowboys' decision-makers should keep the coaching staff in place and continue to build upon the foundation of what looks like viable systems on both sides of the ball. The onus is on the front office to actually stack the deck for this roster to blend some of this high-effort late-season play with a difference-making collection of talent.

The Offensive Rookie of the Year award has been Jayden Daniels’ for quite some time. Bo Nix made it interesting for a minute and the hipsters have long wanted to make sure you acknowledge Brock Bowers’ historic rookie season.

But this award is Daniels’ to win because he is the reason the Washington Commaners are the team they are in 2024.

If you told me that Washington committed five turnovers with three lost fumbles, its leading running back amassed 24 yards on the ground and that it gave up 97 yards with a ton more added due to penalties to A.J. Brown, I’d have assumed it got blown out. For so many reasons it should have lost this Week 16 game to one of the best teams in the conference.

It didn’t … because it has Jayden Daniels.

Make no mistake, Daniels wasn’t perfectly clean in this game. Several of those turnovers were his, and one interception in particular was a pure uncut rookie error. However, you’re never out of it when you have a franchise quarterback who can attack every blade of grass.

Daniels completed seven of 13 passes over 10 air yards for a whopping 169 yards and four of his five passing touchdowns. The Eagles made mistakes on the back end but some of those coverage holes were created because Daniels, who took some lunch money on scrambles, was getting out of the pocket. The Eagles responded in kind when he was on the move and Daniels, rather than forcing the run, was more than happy to unfurl a heater down the field to a wide-open receiver. Other downfield throws on Sunday were just more in what’s becoming a long tape of perfectly placed vertical passes. His touchdown to Terry McLaurin on standout rookie Quinyon Mitchell’s coverage was a gorgeous example.

The Eagles defense has been one of the best units on either side of the ball this season. They attempted to get an edge on Daniels with an inordinate amount of blitzes for Vic Fangio’s units. Instead, Daniels carved them up on blitzes, going 10 of 15 for 173 yards. Many of those answers to the blitz were those aforementioned downfield throws.

Daniels isn’t just some cog in the machine for a Washington franchise that’s completely changed its fortunes in less than a calendar year. He is the machine.

The Seahawks' offense was haunted by all the same problems that have given them fits throughout the 2024 NFL season.

It all starts up front. The offensive line is a mess and was so often an issue before the play even began on Sunday. The front five consistently committed pre-snap and procedural penalties against the Vikings. I can’t think of a team that can less afford to be in long down-and-distance situations against the Minnesota defense than Seattle.

The Vikings blitzed Geno Smith on 35% of his dropbacks, which felt wholly unnecessary. Did they really need extra pass rushers to harass Smith behind that line? Smith finished with a 43.5% pressure rate, the fifth-highest among Week 16 quarterbacks.

Having to play in constant chaos forces Smith into a variety of difficult situations. There’s a natural volatility to Smtih’s game, and he once again exits Sunday with a few throws he will desperately want back. Putting him under constant duress only increases the likelihood that one of those mistakes ends up being back-breaking.

Smith’s second interception may not have even been his fault, as it may go down as yet another installment in what’s been a strange and ultimately disappointing season for DK Metcalf. It looked like Smith expected him to break outside and be in the vicinity of where the ball ultimately went, right into the grips of a Vikings defender. This isn’t the first time Smith has thrown a pick thanks to Metcalf's mysterious choices. For all the greatness this passing game has gotten out of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, it’s coincided with a screeching halt to Metcalf’s production. Whether Metcalf isn’t playing to his standard, JSN just out-alphas him or he just can’t get activated because the protection is a mess, his absence has been felt on downfield shots.

The running game also came to a screeching halt on Sunday. This team had gotten a strong stretch out of Zach Charbonnet the last few weeks but he was mostly absent from the game plan after getting nicked up in practice. Meanwhile, Kenneth Walker III returned and there was once again no rhythm to the ground game. That was the most disappointing development of all these considering Charbonnet’s strong play in an area of need lately.

Seattle has the makings of an interesting operation. Their ceiling is appealing, especially as JSN’s breakout has made the passing game more diverse and slightly stable. Yet, all of the same problems that have haunted this team reared their heads in Week 16. Even one would be enough to keep the unit from reaching stability. So many all combined is too much to bear.

There will be a day when Detroit needs to reckon with its injuries on defense and whether it’ll be too much to bear for this Super Bowl hopeful. Well, it was not and never was going to be this day.

The Lions jumped out to a 20-0 lead over the division-rival Bears early in the second quarter and never let up. The offense ran the day, as almost everything clicked on that side of the ball.

In the backfield, the absence of David Montgomery didn’t matter much. Jahmyr Gibbs operated in the featured role and looked the part. Gibbs was on the field for 69% of the snaps and handled 71.9% of the team carries. He didn’t need a second-fiddle, as over 52% of his carries went for five-plus yards. Gibbs was the model of efficiency. The second-year back has now accumulated 551 yards from scrimmage in four games without Montgomery.

Meanwhile, Jared Goff pitched almost nothing but heat in the passing game, especially off play-action. Per Next Gen Stats, Goff went 14 of 16 on play action for a whopping 243 yards, the most by any quarterback all season. Detroit was hunting deep shots against a Bears secondary that’s come apart at the seams and is particularly vulnerable to the downfield horizontal-breaking routes this group loves to throw.

The Lions offense was working so well Ben Johnson was even dialing up “fake fumble” shot plays in the passing game.

Considering how interested Chicago should be in hiring Johnson as its play-calling head coach next season, you almost wonder if that was a little pre-interview sizzle from the Lions offensive coordinator.

Johnson saw some good things from the other sideline, even if Detroit and its offense had so much room for error that it didn’t matter what was going on when Chicago had the ball. Detroit’s defense gave up some big plays to Caleb Williams in the passing game, allowing Rome Odunze to earn ideal positioning on vertical routes from the slot and leaving Keenan Allen suspiciously wide-open on his touchdown.

Those are inklings of future problems Detroit may need to tighten up as the postseason arrives. It just didn’t matter at all in Week 16 and, frankly, if the Lions offense can play at a near-perfect clip as they did against Chicago, they can fire themselves out of almost any hole their defense digs.

Whenever you can bet on elite players to put up elite production, you should do it. Especially when the only reason they have not been doing it during some random stretch isn’t easily discovered. That was the case with Justin Jefferson just a few weeks ago.

Take the layups when you can. A moderately well-trained chimp could have seen this coming.

The Vikings have designed one of the more pristine offenses in the NFL. Obviously, the basis of the attack will always be No. 18. Kevin O’Connell does more to put his elite wideout in favorable spots than almost any play-caller in the sport. However, Minnesota has started to layer more high-leverage looks to Jordan Addison and rely on T.J. Hockenson as a man-beater on third down. Defenses have so much to consider when this team drops back to pass.

With Sam Darnold under center, the Vikings have a fearless quarterback who still possesses some real arm talent. Even in the most challenging of circumstances, Darnold can make the route concepts come to life. As Darnold continues to gain confidence from the way this offense flows, he’s been more willing to take additional chances. You saw it on Jefferson’s second touchdown:

The Vikings are one of the stories of the season. They are a breakthrough team with one of the best coaches in football and a screaming success in the effort to reclaim Sam Darnold’s career. Minnesota has a chance to win its division if it wins next week with the Lions waiting in Week 18. It’s only right that its best player is offering up his best performances of the season right when it matters most for one of the most critical teams of the 2024 campaign.

The Buccaneers had their fate in their own hands heading into Week 16. Win their final three games and they walk into the postseason despite losing twice to their primary competition in the Atlanta Falcons. That’s all over now after losing to a Cowboys teams that’s not in contention for a postseason berth.

It’s a brutal defeat, and one that’s self-inflicted.

For much of the season, I’ve considered the Buccaneers a team that’s worthy of the postseason. Maybe they aren’t top team in the conference but they have one of the better constructed offenses across the league, a viable quarterback, an offensive line that’s painfully underrated and some legitimate skill-position talent. I wanted to see this team in the postseason. After this Week 16 loss, that faith is off the table. This team should be in the spot it currently finds itself staring down.

You’ll notice in my list of strong qualities for this team that I didn’t find a chance to mention the defense. A unit that’s been among the worst in the NFL this season reared its head in Week 16. Whatever pitch Todd Bowles has thrown on that side of the ball, he’s missed the mark more often than he’s hit. Tackling issues created multiple big plays for Dallas that kept its offense moving down the field in the first half. A unit manned by a defensive head coach just can’t be that fundamentally unsound. End of story.

The plan for CeeDee Lamb was questionable at best. Next Gen Stats notes that Lamb faced pre-snap press coverage on 64% of his routes in Week 16 and he took that iso coverage to school. Nothing about Tampa Bay’s defensive performance this season indicated that a single player could hang with Lamb in press. Turns out, that history was instructive. Lamb didn’t play a full complement of snaps after aggravating his shoulder injury and yet, his presence was predictably the difference.

Offensively, I have more of a soft spot for the Bucs. However, it’s become painfully clear that this team can no longer bear the weight of its injuries. Chris Godwin hasn’t been a part of the proceedings for quite some time, but tight end Cade Otton and Sterling Shepard have been executing a joint job to replace some percentage of his impact. That power slot role is critical to this offense’s success and why Baker Mayfield has reached new efficiency heights this year. With Otton out for the game and Shepard injured during the contest, Tampa Bay’s lack of depth becomes a critical-mass problem.

Mayfield completed 60% of his passes, threw a pick and took four brutal sacks when pass plays exceeded 2.5 seconds, per Next Gen Stats. Guys aren’t getting open fast enough in the flow of true dropback concepts. Jalen McMillan has been productive for this team but almost all of his big plays come on designed shots via motion. He doesn’t win against man coverage on his own and struggles with physical play. He’s a fine No. 3 but is overstretched as Mike Evans’ running mate against a good defense. I’m skeptical of the stability with the rookie receiver. The other players beyond these two just shouldn’t be seeing that much playing time.

Tampa Bay’s strength is its offense, and when that side of the ball continues to deal with injuries and watches some of its key players make critical mistakes, you see a team that can’t be trusted to control its own destiny. That’s right where Tampa Bay sits with two more weeks left to go in 2024.

Bryce Young’s passing box score doesn’t look like anything revelatory but this is a clear-cut situation where the stats aren’t what matters most. Young continues to stack positive performances amid some suddenly pristine vibes, and is even beginning to get some wins out of it all. The Panthers took down a Cardinals team that, at one point, was in control of its own destiny at the top of the NFC West.

I continue to be impressed with Young’s response to blitzes and pressure in key moments. Too often during his rookie season, Young never had an answer to heat. He rarely found his way to a second-reaction play and the offensive ecosystem absolutely never gave him any. Over the last month plus, those instincts have been the best part of his game.

Young scrambled four times for 69 yards against Arizona. He has such great timing for when to bail on the pass concepts and just find something on his own. We also saw some good point-guard play out of Young when the play design worked early. Per Next Gen Stats, Young was 12 of 18 for 113 of his 158 passing yards and both of his touchdowns on passes under 2.5 seconds.

Those stats in conjunction really tell the story of what Young is doing well right now and what he’s missing. When the first read isn’t there or players don’t win right away, he doesn’t really have an ace in the receiver room to just find on off-script plays. So instead, it’s been on Young to just take off and create.

Imagine the player we’ve seen play quarterback for the Panthers in the second half of the season, and some of the nice complementary young pass-catchers, with a legitimate WR1 playing X-receiver. Now, we have something to build around.

It felt all too fitting and perhaps painful that Deebo Samuel put up a vintage stat line on the day the 49ers were officially eliminated from playoff contention prior to kickoff.

Samuel had gone under 36 yards from scrimmage in his previous five games before clearing 130 and finding the end zone for the first time in months this week. Even George Kittle turned in an excellent performance, going over the century mark on the back of some beautiful downfield routes. Kittle hasn’t had anything close to the type of letdown season that Samuel has offered up, but there just haven’t been many times this season when these two have been the engine of the offense.

Most of the 49ers 2024 season has felt like the end of something, rather than the beginning.

We all know how folks can be in the final chapters of anything. We get wistful, remember the past and even do a little editorializing about the current reality of the relationship. That’s what Week 16 felt like for the 49ers. Perhaps it was even nice for a disappointed group of fans to see some of their old-guard players take flight once more in an ultimately meaningless game in a widely disappointing season.

But that’s what this game represented — more of what was, and not what’s to come for San Francisco.

The 49ers' decision-makers face a difficult offseason. Several stars are aging, cornerstone big-contract players like Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk are dealing with injury rehabs and some of the ancillary players who got unexpected playing time this year, like Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall, look solid but maybe not like future superstars. Meanwhile, Brock Purdy’s contract negotiation will hang over all of this, which may not be a simple discussion.

As the Niners brass prepare to embark on these murky waters, it sure feels like they will do it without several players who have long been considered staples of this team. No matter what happened or will take place in the next few weeks of Samuel’s last gasp, we’re at the end of a chapter.

The Cardinals were officially eliminated from playoff contention with a Rams win in New York and Arizona's own loss to the Panthers. It was fitting that it happened on a day that contained so many of the items that have made them one of the most frustrating passing attacks in the NFL this season.

We saw another rocky, mixed-bag performance from Kyler Murray. The Cardinals' quarterback will likely come away with passing stats hovering at league average when we get to the end of the season. That’s not going to be indicative of how we arrived at the destination. Murray has had some excellent moments but they’ve been too often flanked by missed opportunities or painful mistakes.

His Week 16 interception was the type of unforced error that has haunted this team all season.

Week 16’s loss also brought us more of the same in the pass catcher department. Trey McBride’s streak of no touchdown receptions continues. He’s now up to 92 catches without a receiving score. We also got more of Marvin Harrison Jr. playing losing football at the catch point, especially late in the game during crunch time. We can point out that his deployment is too static and that Murray hasn’t given him ideal targets on these back shoulder plays — I have done it and those are big parts of the story — but we also can’t shy away from the reality that this has been a massive issue for Harrison as a rookie. It’s a correctable problem but the rookie receiver will have to go all-in toward fixing it this offseason.

The Cardinals weren’t supposed to be a Super Bowl team this year. Yet, with how they sat in the driver’s seat of a mostly disappointing NFC West in the second half of the year, only to get eliminated with two games left, you have to wonder what the tenor of the building will be after Week 18.

I’m not sure if offensive coordinator Drew Petzing needs to go or if some of the issues with the unit go too deep for a change in play-caller to be the answer. However, what can’t happen is a full run-it-back approach in 2025. We need different deployments for some of the front-line players and formational layers. Otherwise, we’re trending toward “definition of insanity” territory given the results we got from the 2024 Cardinals.

Colts running back Jonathan Taylor delivered one of the best fantasy football lines of the season, scoring 39.8 points against the Titans. Taylor did it all in the ground game with 29 carries for 218 yards and three scores, with no targets on the day.

As Taylor was dominating, I can’t tell you how many times I saw something to the effect of “he’s doing all this one week after eliminating his fantasy managers last week by dropping the ball before crossing the goal-line in Denver.”

What an absolute bunch of nonsense.

Taylor made an uncharacteristic bone-headed mistake last week that cost his team. But I hate to break it to you: if you think that’s why your Taylor team lost in Round 1 of the fantasy playoffs, you’re delusional. Despite his big mistake, Taylor still escaped Week 15 with 11.6 points. If you can’t survive one of your top two backs scoring double-digits, it just might not have been in the cards for you.

Plenty of folks made it past last week with Taylor in their lineup and reaped the rewards in Week 16. His performance in this game against Tennessee is far more instructive than his gaffe last week, despite what the social media like- and repost-merchants will tell you.

The Colts season isn’t quite over but they’re a longshot for the postseason. As it winds down, these positive offensive showings will matter. I’d like to see the Colts' coaching staff and many of their young offensive players get another chance to develop in 2025.