Week 1 NFL picks against spread: Seahawks clip Packers; Raiders edge Titans
With the 2017 NFL season comes another exciting year of pigskin prognostications and football forecasts. That means 256 more regular-season chances to pick against the spread laid out by the fine folks in Vegas.
The best part about going into Week 1? Nothing is wrong yet. The worst part about going into Week 1? We've also got nothing right yet.
Hope you are ready for some pro football that actually counts. Here's how we see this weekend's full slate of games of going down.
STEELE: Week 1 NFL picks straight up
Week 1 NFL picks against the spread
Games of the Week
Seahawks at Packers (-3), Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
Eddie Lacy returning to Lambeau Field vs. replacement Ty Montgomery is the distant undercard to the passing duel between Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. The Packers quarterback found comfort against the Seahawks' defense last season, and Wilson, fully healthy, will be have his team at full speed to match. It's an opening thriller worthy of the late window with Wilson, back near his final college stomping grounds, making the big decisive play late against the weaker defense. Seahawks win 27-24.
Giants at Cowboys (-3 1/2), Sunday 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC
Even with Ezekiel Elliott in there to help Dak Prescott, this is a daunting defense for the Cowboys, as the Giants swept the season series as NFC East runners-up in 2016. This time, Eli Manning has Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram added to his receiving mix to exploit the Cowboys' downgrades in the secondary. Dak will have a solid sophomore start, but streaky Eli starts hotter with the right matchup. Giants win 24-20 in the Upset of the Week.
Rest of the Week
Raiders at Titans (-2), Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Tennessee is thought to be this year's Oakland, a successful rebuilding project-turned-AFC playoff team. But drawing the current Raiders is a difficult assignment early. The Titans will be able to move the ball well on the ground, but eventually, this turns into a shootout between young rising QBs Marcus Mariota and Derek Carr. The Raiders QB will earn his new big contract by using his more-established weapons to lead a game-winning drive late. Raiders win 31-27.
Eagles (-1) at Redskins, Sunday, 1 pm. ET, FOX
Kirk Cousins is betting on himself in what's likely his last year in Washington, while Carson Wentz is just getting warmed up, now loaded with legit outside wideouts in Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith. Wentz will spread the ball around well in his Year 2 debut. Cousins is facing a good defense that improved on every level and will rattle him more consistently. Eagles win 27-23 and cover the spread.
Falcons (-7) at Bears, Sunday 1 p.m. ET, FOX
The only way to compare Matt Ryan and Mike Glennon is their tall, lanky frames and big arms. Otherwise, Atlanta's current QB is the reigning NFL MVP, and Tampa Bay's former QB is a good early bet to lead the league in interceptions if he somehow starts ahead of Mitchell Trubisky all season. The Falcons' defense won't be thinking "28-3," but rather how much better it can be under Dan Quinn in Year 3 with so much young speed. You can bet Atlanta will pick on Chicago, taking it out on its first opponent since the Super Bowl. Falcons win 34-13 and cover the spread.
Steelers (-9) at Browns, Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
There's some positive buzz around Cleveland's offense because beyond rookie QB DeShone Kizer, players such Isaiah Crowell, Corey Coleman and Kenny Britt will make it look more respectable for Hue Jackson. Unfortunately, archrival Pittsburgh counters with Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant. The Killer Bs will roll out well after a strong offseason, and former Browns corner Joe Haden will put the finishing touches on it. Steelers win 38-21 and cover the spread in the Lock of the Week.
Ravens at Bengals (-3), Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Joe Flacco is returning from a back injury (most likely), but Baltimore's offense has been banged up everywhere throughout the preseason. Cincy is hoping Joe Mixon will provide a spark to its backfield in what sets up as a bit of an ugly defensive game. It's at home in the early window, which means Andy Dalton can do his best work. His connection to A.J. Green is the difference in a field-goal fest. Bengals win 23-19 and cover the spread.
Cardinals (-1 1/2) at Lions, Sunday 1 p.m. ET, FOX
The Leos get little respect as a returning playoff team with Jim Caldwell, but there's plenty of reason to keep respecting counterpart Bruce Arians. Detroit's defense doesn't have answers for Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald or David Johnson. Matthew Stafford faces a much trickier pressure package and secondary, especially when Ameer Abdulllah and the running game are contained. The Cards' desert drive to Ford Field is fruitful. Cardinals win 27-23 and cover the spread.
Jaguars at Texans (-5 1/2), Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
J.J. Watt already has been a big winner off the field in the wake of Hurricane Harvey, but you can bet he's been itching to get back on the field and inspire Houstonians even more. This game is all about defense, as Watt adds to a terrorizing Texans group and the Jags jump to another level. There's no way Watt lets up on Blake Bortles in the most important opener in franchise history. Texans win 23-10 and cover the spread.
Jets at Bills (-8), Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Buffalo has been breaking bad with some of the late preseason news, but it's still not close to what happened downstate with New York's AFC East fire sale. Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy up and running together are plenty to ground the Jets' defense, and Josh McCown just can't keep up against a Bills defense that will be motivated to make it a winning debut for Sean McDermott. Bills win 24-13 and cover the spread.
Colts at Rams (-3 1/2), Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Scott Tolzien vs. Jared Goff isn't a joke. It's a real Week 1 NFL QB matchup. Tolzien is filling in for Andrew Luck (shoulder) because Jacoby Brissett isn't quite ready for those duties yet. As Luck lifts a team with plenty of weaknesses, Tolzien only highlights those weaknesses. With or without Aaron Donald, it's hard to face a Wade Phillips-coached defense after a long road trip. Goff has to be better under Sean McVay and with Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Gerlad Everett now part of his support. But in this one, feeding Todd Gurley a ton will work fine vs. the Indy D. Rams win 24-17 and cover the spread.
Panthers (-5 1/2) at 49ers, Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
After the two Seans, we're up to our third rookie coach in a row as the Kyle Shanahan era kicks off in San Francisco. The talent is still lacking overall, but it's gotten some good long-term upgrades defensively (Solomon Thomas, Reuben Foster) and decent short-term upgrades offensively (Brian Hoyer, Pierre Garcon, Marquise Goodwin). The Niners will build on a feel-good offseason to show Shanahan is the answer, but the Panthers, with the defense back near elite again, Cam Newton back healthy and Christian McCaffrey back close to Stanford, are too much to handle in the end. Panthers win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
MORE: NFL predictions for 2017
Saints at Vikings (-3 1/2), Monday 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Minnesota's limited offense gets a break early to explode on New Orleans' ever-reeling defense. Sam Bradford will get big plays to both Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielien, buoyed by Adrian Peterson replacement Dalvin Cook running and catching well in his NFL debut. As for Peterson, his revenge plans will be foiled, first by not playing much as Drew Brees needs to go pass-happier again, and then by seeing the Vikings hold on late because of Cook. Vikings win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
Chargers at Broncos (-3 1/2), Monday 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
With all due respect to the Raiders with Khalil Mack and the Chiefs solid on every level, the Chargers and Broncos are set up to have the two best defenses in the AFC West. Joey Bosa and Von Miller will make sure this battle is more about them than it is about Trevor Siemian and Philip Rivers. It's a late-night, low-scoring special that pleases the "under" crowd, with Denver's home field making the slight difference. Broncos win 17-16 but fail to cover the spread.
Game of Midweek
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Chiefs at Patriots (-9), Thursday 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC
The Patriots go from digging out of a major Super Bowl hole into massive Super Bowl favorites. The Chiefs aren't the easiest opening opponent. But while their defense can cause a few snags for Tom Brady and the passing game, their own lack of offensive firepower will cost them. New England will find a way to contain Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. KC won't have the same answers for Brandin Cooks and Rob Gronkowski. Patriots win 30-17 and cover the spread.