UFC Saudi Arabia odds and predictions: Does Israel Adesanya still have it?

UFC spotlights the middleweight division with its first overseas trip of 2025, which features two highly intriguing bouts atop the billing at UFC Saudi Arabia, headlined by former two-time champion Israel Adesanya's return. Riding his first losing streak, "The Last Stylebender" competes in his first non-title tilt since 2019 when he meets the streaking Nassourdine Imavov. It's been a steady climb to the division's peak for France's Imavov, however Adesanya represents his highest-profile matchup to date.

The evening's other big middleweight clash carries far less stakes, but, boy, does it carry plenty of intrigue. Longtime welterweight showman and two-time Bellator title challenger Michael "Venom" Page moves up in weight with hopes to become the first blemish on Shara Magomedov's 15-0 record.

UFC's inaugural trip to Saudi Arabia in 2024 already delivered with middleweights when Robert Whittaker brutally knocked out Ikram Aliskerov, and there is potential for another exciting event on Saturday. So you know the drill — let's break down the matchups.

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

185 pounds: Israel Adesanya (-170) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (+140)

We've entered strange territory with Adesanya. Despite losing two in a row, his losses don't tell the whole story — his latest to current champion Dricus du Plessis, in particular.

By all counts, Adesanya should be slowing down at 35 years old after an extensive combat sports career across two different sports. That's simply not the case though, and he proved that in a vastly competitive clash with du Plessis — a fight he entered off his longest career layoff.

Against Imavov, Adesanya faces another striker for whom he's been studying. The ever-talented New Zealander has historically flourished in a good, old-fashioned kickboxing match, being one of MMA's all-time greats on the feet. Few fighters in the sport's history have utilized distance management as well as the former champion — just ask past rivals like Marvin Vettori or Jared Cannonier. We may as well throw out the points of success du Plessis had in their fight because they only apply to him and his own effective — but ridiculously awkward and totally unable to replicate — way. Outside of "DDP," Sean Strickland and Alex Pereira have solved the Adesanya puzzle without the aid of grappling, eliminating Adesanya's breathing space with consistent pressure and cage control.

Imavov is sneakily talented and a legitimate player in the division, but I'll admit my belief in him waned after his short-notice light heavyweight loss to Strickland in early 2023. The Frenchman has been nearly perfect since, though. Disregard the Chris Curtis no contest via accidental head clash and Imavov has won three straight with strong performances against top-10 fighters.

Adesanya won't have to worry about pressure striking to the same degree he did against Strickland or Pereira, and even when presented with an in-your-face opponent, Adesanya's counter work is arguably the nastiest of all. Still, Imavov can make the former champ uncomfortable, and he packs a handful of lethal tools in his arsenal.

This is a test for Imavov, but Adesanya is still an elite among the elite. Until we see him lose to someone who isn't championship-caliber, you can't bet against him. Imavov has the chance to get there, but he just hasn't done it yet.

Pick: Adesanya

185 pounds: Sharabutdin Magomedov (-185) vs. Michael Page (+150)

Something has to give between "MVP" and "Shara Bullet."

Several factors make this fight highly compelling, starting with the fact that neither man has truly been bested in the striking department, and that's what they are at their cores: skilled, flashy strikers. Unlike most Dagestan-born competitors, Magomedov stands out for his standup savvy, accompanied by a decent-at-best grappling game. Both fighters have pulled off some of MMA's most ridiculous highlight-reel finishes, like Magomedov's 2024 Knockout of the Year contender against Arman Petrosyan.

Between double-spinning backfists and spinning wheel kicks, nothing is off the table in this matchup. Although Page will be at a size disadvantage, he's long been a master of counter-fighting and distance management. He's a lot more similar to Adesanya than a surface-level glance would indicate, but that's more of a testament to his karate-based stance vs. Adesanya's kickboxing style.

Ultimately, Page is more tested against better competition than Magomedov and hasn't been bested in a striker's showdown aside from his 2019 loss to Douglas Lima. Age and size are against the 37-year-old though, and Page will turn Magomedov into a wrestler at some point in this one, resulting in his downfall.

Pick: Magomedov

265 pounds: Sergei Pavlovich (-325) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+260)

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik should be pretty cut-and-dried. Someone is getting knocked out, and I can't imagine it's Pavlovich.

Sure, we've seen the dynamite-fisted Russian get planted by Tom Aspinall and Alistair Overeem. But Rozenstruik had a notoriously scary rise to prominence in his own right when he burst onto the UFC scene in 2019 — then he ran face-first into Francis Ngannou's world-crushing power. Things haven't quite been the same for the fighting pride of Suriname since.

Rozenstruik, 36, had failed to string together a win streak after his 10-0 MMA start until his past two fights — forgettable wins over Tai Tuivasa and Shamil Gaziev. He's been relatively durable but hittable. Outside of Ngannou, Alexander Volkov — Pavlovich's most recent opponent — is the only other heavyweight to stop Rozenstruik with strikes. But unfortunately for "Bigi Boy," Pavlovich possesses such devastating power that it shouldn't matter.

Standing a stalky 6-foot-2 compared to Volkov's 6-foot-7, Rozenstruik will fail to replicate the rangy game plan that carried Volkov to victory against Pavlovich, leading the once-surging Russian to return to the win column in highlight-reel fashion.

Pick: Pavlovich

135 pounds: Said Nurmagomedov (-160) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (+135)

Protect your neck.

No, no, no — this isn't a GFL catchphrase; it's just another Said Nurmagomedov fight.

But that's not a bad thing! Nurmagomedov's fights — and his incredibly speedy ability to catch a choke in the blink of an eye — are always a good time. Similar to Magomedov, Nurmagomedov is one of the few Dagestan-born fighters who thrive primarily as strikers, though he still loves his guillotines and ninja chokes.

Despite my affection for Nurmagomedov's talents in the bantamweight division, I'm surprised to see him slotted as the betting favorite against the ultra-talented Vinicius Oliveira, who's been electric in every sense of the word since his UFC arrival in 2024.

"Lok Dog" is a dynamic and brutal striker who delivers damage at a more consistent clip than Nurmagomedov. Here, he'll look to chop out the legs of his equally long counterpart. As Nurmagomedov slows, thudding punch combinations will follow from Oliveira. Maybe even another flying knee lands.

This is a very winnable fight for Nurmagomedov and oddsmakers may be considering each fighter's body of work with these lines, however, Oliveira just has momentum on his side and serious skill to boot.

Pick: Oliveira

155 pounds: Fares Ziam (+115) vs. Mike Davis (-140)

Mike Davis is an absolute beast, and we're lucky to finally see him back without another long layoff.

Lightweight's "Beast Boy" may be one of the best-kept secrets in his division due to his perpetual inactivity. In 13 fights, Davis has only lost to Gilbert Burns and Sodiq Yusuff. He's stopped all but two of his opponents in his victories, and who could forget the horrific beatdown he put on Thomas Gifford? No matter how much time passes, Davis remains a violent force, and he proved that in his latest bout against Natan Levy.

Fares Ziam has been on a roll of his own lately. The Frenchman punctuated his four-fight win streak with a gnarly flying knee knockout of Matt Frevola, showing a new viciousness to his game. While he may be able to match Davis in technicality on the feet, Davis' edge in power will be the X-factor.

Even if this hits the floor, Davis also showed off in that realm against Levy, earning the win by second-round arm triangle. Simply put, Davis is just too dangerous and battle-tested.

Pick: Davis

Preliminary notes

I think Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius is a trap fight. Don't get me wrong, Jasudavicius has been exceptional on her current three-fight win streak. She's really come a long way with her overall development since Natalia Silva styled on her. But Bueno Silva has just been downgraded into obscurity since her Raquel Pennington vacant title loss.

Bueno Silva undeniably underperformed in that matchup and wasn't at her best when she joined the UFC as a flyweight, but when reexamining her latest loss to Macy Chiasson, she was very much in that fight until she suffered a nasty bout-halting cut.

One way or another, we're in for a fun fight at 125 pounds, and there should be some pretty fun grappling exchanges should the fight hit the floor.

Quick picks

Muhammad Naimov (-325) def. Kaan Ofli (+260)

Shamil Gaziev (-350) def. Thomas Peterson (+280)

Terrance McKinney (-500) def. Damir Hadzovic (+360)

Mayra Bueno Silva (+200) def. Jasmine Jasudavicius (-250)

Lucas Alexander (-120) def. Bogdan Grad (+100)

Jamal Pogues (-105) def. Hamdy Abdelwahab (-115)