UFC betting: Keys to victory for Ciryl Gane vs. Francis Ngannou
On résumé alone, it’s Francis Ngannou by a landslide over Ciryl Gane. In their battle for the heavyweight title on Saturday (10 p.m. ET, ESPN+ PPV) at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California, it’s Ngannou who has the big names on his résumé.
Though Gane deconstructed Derrick Lewis perfectly in capturing the interim heavyweight title, the Frenchman hasn’t faced nearly the opposition that Ngannou has in his storied UFC career.
Ngannou is 16-3 with 16 finishes in his MMA career, which began in 2013. Gane is 10-0 with seven finishes.
Ngannou, though, has KO wins over four former UFC heavyweight champions — Andrei Arlovski (1:32 of the first); Cain Velasquez (26 seconds of the first); Junior dos Santos (1:11 of the first) and Stipe Miocic (52 seconds of the second) — while Gane has a TKO of dos Santos.
But Gane is favored at BetMGM by an increasing margin. As of early afternoon Wednesday Pacific time, Gane was a -150 favorite, with Ngannou at +125.
Much of that is because of the style Gane uses. He’s probably the most athletic heavyweight the UFC has ever seen, and he used his quickness and footwork to maximum advantage against Lewis. Lewis is the UFC’s all-time knockout leader, but he barely touched Gane in their fight at UFC 265.
Gane’s performance was reminiscent of the many shutouts that superstar boxer Floyd Mayweather pitched, where he remained patient while breaking down his opponent and avoiding damage.
When Gane had sufficiently worn Lewis down, he attacked and the fight was stopped with Lewis slumping along the cage at 4:11 of the third round.
Ngannou’s advantage is that he’s the hardest puncher in UFC history and it only takes one punch for him to end a bout. He’s 11-2 in the UFC and has won eight of his 11 UFC bouts by first-round finish. One of those, though, was a submission of Anthony Hamilton. The other seven were KOs.
And they weren’t garden-variety KOs, either. They were violent, vicious knockouts in which observers had to hold their breath to make sure the opponent got up.
It’s enticing to get a guy with that kind of power at +125. But there’s a reason that boxers usually win the boxer versus slugger matches that occur. It’s because, as Muhammad Ali would say in his “Float Like a Butterfly” fight poems, your hands can’t hit what your eyes can’t see.
Gane knows how to use his range and he has strong kicks that should enable him to keep Ngannou from swarming him and throwing big shots.
The more big shots Ngannou throws, the more his chance of landing one increases and the more he lands, the more likely it is he’ll end the fight.
So Gane will have to limit Ngannou’s output and tire him out. Ngannou’s only gone two rounds twice in his career, and both of them were losses, to Miocic and Lewis in 2018.
I’ll lay the $150 and play Gane to win, hoping for a $100 profit.
Other UFC 270 bets
• I love the flyweight title fight between champion Brandon Moreno and former champion Deiveson Figueiredo. They drew in the first one and Figueiredo kept the title, but Moreno submitted Figueiredo in the second fight and won the belt.
Figueiredo’s biggest issue at flyweight has always been making weight, but he looks incredible in photos he posted. He’s been training with ex-champion Henry Cejudo and looks as fit as he’s ever been.
Moreno is now up to -175 and that’s getting a bit much. As I see it, this is much closer to a pick 'em fight, so I’ll take Figueiredo at +145.
• I will take Andre Fialho (+250) in his UFC debut to defeat Michel Pereira, who is -300.
• I like Kay Hansen (-245) to win over Jasmine Jasudavicius (+200).