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The Fantasy Football Numbers Do Lie: Don't let Justin Herbert’s QB21 rank fool you

dalton del don
Fantasy analyst
·4-min read

A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn't always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.

Yes ... The Numbers Do Lie.

Ridley has averaged 10.7 targets, 6.7 catches and 100.0 receiving yards while scoring two touchdowns over three games since DeAndre Hopkins was traded. He’s been fantasy’s WR5 in points per game over that span. Ridley sports a 32% TPRR (targets per route run), 3.03 YPRR and a 41% first-read target rate since Hopkins left, which are WR1 numbers.

It's a small sample, but it’s also encouraging Ridley maintained production after Will Levis returned last week. Moreover, Ridley has the third easiest remaining schedule for wide receivers after having the league’s toughest until now.

Ridley’s impressive rates will regress some, and this is still an offense with a lowly 16.75-point implied total this week (when Levis may struggle versus Minnesota’s blitzing). But Ridley’s usage with Hopkins gone has been undeniable, and he suddenly looks like a top-20 WR down the stretch (even if some duds are sprinkled in).

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Herbert has been fantasy’s QB21 in points per game, but he’s been the QB9 over the last four weeks. He’s getting a career-high 7.8 YPA with an 11:1 TD:INT ratio, but volume has been a problem for his fantasy production. The Chargers rank 25th in pass plays per game. Los Angeles has allowed just 13.1 points per game, which would be top 15 in NFL history if the season ended. The Chargers’ red-zone defense (38.9%) is likely to regress.

Moreover, L.A.’s favorable schedule has been loaded with low projected totals, but the Chargers’ upcoming matchups should feature many more shootouts. Herbert’s had the 10th hardest QB fantasy schedule so far, but he has the sixth easiest rest-of-season. The Chargers are one of just nine teams with a positive pass rate over expectation over the last month, as Los Angeles has thrown decidedly more since its bye. Herbert has also run more since L.A.’s bye, which is possibly a sign his foot is feeling better.

Different upcoming game scripts will help Herbert’s terrific performance translate more into fantasy production. His season rank is highly misleading.

Brown played a career-high 89% of the snaps last week when he saw all 24 RB opportunities. Newcomer Khalil Herbert played two snaps and botched a handoff resulting in a fumble, leading to a Leonard Fournette workout Monday. Brown had a season-high 75% route participation and saw a career-high 11 targets. He’s seen 100% of the Bengals’ RB touches over the last two weeks, including a whopping nine opportunities inside the 10-yard line. With Zack Moss out for the season, Brown has Cincinnati’s backfield to himself.

Brown has been fantasy’s RB3 since Moss went down despite a matchup in Baltimore last week against a Ravens’ defense allowing just 56.8 RB rushing yards per game. Joe Burrow has looked fantastic, so Brown is in a terrific situation. He gets a tough matchup on the road against the Chargers this week and then a bye, but Brown should be treated as a top-12 back down the stretch.

Jennings ranks 50th among pass catchers in receptions this season, but his volume will continue to increase with Brandon Aiyuk out for the season. Jennings led San Francisco in routes run, targets, catches, air yards and receiving yards during his first game without Aiyuk last week. He had the league’s sixth-highest first-read target share (38.5%) last week, and Brock Purdy owns the league’s fourth-best Passer Rating (134.5) when targeting Jennings. He ranks second in the NFL in yards per route run, eighth in fantasy points per route run and 10th among 117 pass catchers in ESPN’s Receiving Score.

Jennings owns a 32% TPRR with Aiyuk off the field, and he’s now replaced BA as the 49ers’ “X” receiver. Jennings erupted for 41 fantasy points in Week 3 with Deebo Samuel Sr. out — the only other game in which he’s acted as SF’s WR2. Jennings isn’t Terrell Owens 2.0, but he can clearly play; he’ll now see a much bigger opportunity on a potent offense due for major red-zone regression.

The 49ers’ offense looks crowded with Christian McCaffrey back, but Samuel Sr. has been slowed by multiple injuries, and George Kittle is dealing with hamstring irritation. Jennings’ range of outcomes suddenly includes him being a top-12 WR down the stretch.