Spain the team to beat? Chris Sutton predicts the last-16 matches at Euro 2024

Sutton's predictions

Eight of the 24 teams are heading home, but which of the sides left standing will make it all the way to the final of Euro 2024 at Olympiastadion Berlin on 14 July?

BBC Sport football expert Chris Sutton was right about one of the shock results from the final round of group games - he had picked Austria as his dark horses before the tournament started and backed them to beat the Netherlands - but overall he only got three out of 12 correct.

You fared even worse, with only two correct results, leaving you with a total of 15 out of 36 (42%) from the group stage compared to 16 (or 44%) for Sutton.

Can he or you do any better this time? You can make your predictions for the last-16 ties below, including England against Slovakia and Sutton's pick to win the European Championship, France, versus Belgium.



Switzerland v Italy

Switzerland 2-0 Italy

Match report

Switzerland ending up drawing with Germany in their final group game but they were ahead for a long time and it looked like they would top Group A.

I was speaking to Danny Murphy about this game because he is co-commentating on it for BBC TV, and he fancies Switzerland strongly, but I never really agree with Danny so I am going to go with Italy.

They are the holders and theyfound a way to get the result they needed against Croatia in their last match in Group B.

In fairness, although they only scored their equaliser in the 98th minute, they didn't deserve to lose anyway because they'd had the better chances.

I just have a feeling Italy will do the same here, and find a way to win, although it is going to very close.

Sutton's prediction: 0-1

Germany v Denmark

Germany 2-0 Denmark


I am covering this game with Vicki Sparks for Radio 5 live and I'm looking forward to seeing what Germany do next.

They started the tournament like a train against Scotland and played well again against Hungary but then found it more difficult against Switzerland. They fought back well to get a draw, though, and I am a big fan of Niclas Fullkrug who came on to score their goal.

Germany boss Julian Nagelsmann named the same starting XI for each of those three group games but he will have to make at least one change here because Jonathan Tah is suspended after picking up two bookings.

We saw against England that Denmark are stubborn and well organised, and their wing-backs play an important role in the way they are set up. They also have Christian Eriksen who can make things tick when they get on the ball.

I am still backing the hosts to get through this one, though, because they have got enough attacking firepower to get past the Danes' defence.

Sutton's prediction: 2-0


England v Slovakia

England 2-1 Slovakia

Match report

Some of the criticism of England and especially Gareth Southgate at these Euros has been way over the top.

There seems to have been an instant judgement made of them at this tournament despite them winning their group. Their performances have not been there yet but finishing top was the first objective, and they have achieved that.

Now we are into the knockout stages and the draw has really opened up for them with France, Spain, Germany and Portugal all on the opposite side.

If I was an England player now - and I do have some experience to call on here because I am thinking back to my one cap against Cameroon in 1997 - then I would be thinking that we have not played to our capabilities yet, and what an opportunity this is.

It is not always the team who starts a tournament the best who go on to win it - look at Portugal in 2016, who began with three draws against Iceland, Austria and Hungary.

We all know England can get better, and this is a game they should win.

I covered Slovakia in their first game at these Euros - their surprise win over Belgium - and they are well structured and well-drilled but lack the kind of standout individuals they have had in the past with players such as my old Celtic team-mate Lubomir Moravcik and, more recently, Marek Hamsik.

Slovakia will try to pick their moments but, if England score early, they should win pretty comfortably.

I'm expecting Southgate to make one change from the team that drew with Slovenia and choose Kobbie Mainoo instead of Conor Gallagher in midfield.

I actually want him to pick Cole Palmer, whose creativity in the 20 minutes he played in that game made England look a far more potent team, as his number 10... but I don't think he will.

Sutton's prediction: 2-0

Spain v Georgia

Spain 4-1 Georgia

Match report

I am at this game for Radio 5 Live with Ian Dennis and what a story Georgia have been - I love what they have achieved at this tournament, and the way they have done it.

They only finished fourth in their qualifying group - which by the way saw them lose 7-1 at home to Spain in September last year - but made it here via the Nations League and have surprised everyone.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is their one real star player but as a team they have been a real breath of fresh air with their approach in Germany. They are not bothered about possession but when they break they have amazing pace and a real cutting edge.

With their performances so far, Georgia have shown everyone what a good team they are - but the problem for them here is that Spain were THE outstanding team of the group stage.

Spain are well balanced, defensively disciplined and carry a real attacking threat. I am sticking with France as my pick to win these Euros but Spain are currently the team to beat.

Sutton's prediction: 3-1


France v Belgium

France 1-0 Belgium

Match report

Belgium boss Domenico Tedesco has been getting as much stick as Southgate after the way they have started this tournament.

France have been a big disappointment too, in that they have been pragmatic and boring to watch, and they only finished second in their group.

They often start slowly, though, and I am not changing my mind now about them going on to win the whole thing.

Sutton's prediction: 1-0

Portugal v Slovenia

Portugal v Slovenia

Frankfurt / 20:00 BST

Portugal were already through when they lost to Georgia, and made lots of changes. I am expecting a very different performance from them this time.

That might be despite Cristiano Ronaldo rather than because of him, however. I know you can't say a bad word about him in Portugal but he is detrimental to their team because he cannot move anymore.

He can still finish, of course, and he has adapted his game, but everyone else has to adapt their game around him.

Having said that, this game may actually suit Ronaldo if Slovenia play like they did against England when they lined up in a 4-4-2 shape and defended deep.

Slovenia are superbly organised, as we saw against England, but I do think Portugal will have the individual and collective quality to beat them.

Sutton's prediction: 3-0


Romania v Netherlands

Romania 0-3 Netherlands

Match report

I am backing Memphis Depay to fire the Netherlands into the quarter-finals, but they have not been very convincing so far.

The Netherlands look quite flaky to me, as Austria showed when they beat them last time out, and they only finished third in their group.

Romania topped theirs and have already exceeded expectations to get this far. They will give this a real go, but this will be the end for them.

Sutton's prediction: 1-3

Austria v Turkey

Austria 1-2 Turkey

Match report

I'd like to emphasise that Austria have always been one of my dark horses at Euro 2024.

I may have picked them to finish third in their group but as well as tipping them to beat the Dutch I chose them as a surprise package before a ball was kicked in this tournament.

After finishing above France and the Netherlands to top a tough group, Ralf Rangnick's side will feel they can climb any mountain and I am expecting more of the same here.

Turkey are an interesting team - not one of my dark horses mind you - and their support is unbelievable.

They have got some exciting players too and have scored some wonderful goals but I just think Austria's organisation and intensity will make the difference again.

Sutton's prediction: 3-1