Simon Marshall previews Derby Day

Derby Day is arguably the finest day’s racing on the Australian calendar, with every race at Flemington at Group level, including four Group 1s. 7 Racing expert Simon Marshall analysis all the Group 1 races and has an early special for punters in Race 1.

Race 5: Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m)
It’s a cracking race full of exciting colts but I’m sticking with No. 3 Astern. His first-up win in the Run to the Roses at Group 2 level was terrific and he then won the Group 1 Golden Rose. Last start, when he was freshen up back to the 1200m, jockey James McDonald (by his own accord) overdid it and allowed Russian Revolution to pinch the race, but his sectional times were outstanding in flashing home for 2nd. He’ll sit off a nice genuine speed, he’ll be close enough down the straight and he’s an exciting colt.

Extreme Choice beat the older horses first up over 1000m in the Group 1 Moir Stakes at Mooney Valley and that’s extremely good form. He’s a 1200m Blue Diamond winner as a two-year-old, he trialled nicely coming into this and he’ll be the one to catch out in front.

I also have a lot of respect for No. 5 Star Turn, who was beaten a short half-head by Astern first up. He was then freshened before beating the older horses, including Group 1 winner Malaguerra over 1100m, so it’s hard to leave him out.

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The only undefeated runner is No. 6 Russian Revolution. If they let him freewheel out in front he’ll be mighty tough to run down.

Simon’s Tips
3. Astern
2. Extreme Choice
5. Star Turn
6. Russian Revolution

Race 6: Meyer Classic (1600m)

The proven horse at Flemington and also over the mile is Don’t Doubt Mamma. She’s won her last two at Group 2 level in fine fashion, the most recent of those at Mooney Valley in the Stocks Stakes where she sat of a nice, hot speed and used her beautiful acceleration to beat Kaniana who has since won as well. Barrier 13 suits as she’s a big girl and likes a bit of galloping room. Pilot Dwayne Dunn will give her every opportunity from about midfield with cover and I’m sure she’ll burst out of the pack at some stage and look the winner.

I also like a roughie in this, Pure Pride. I saw her last run but couldn’t quite believe what I was seeing. She missed the kick and was tailed off last, she ran up behind them with Patrick Moloney in the saddle and she then got squeezed halfway down the straight. But the way she burst out and hit the line over 1400m was eye-catching. She’s at bolter’s odds with Craig Williams taking over the ride and will provide great value fourth-up in this.

Simon’s Tips
7. Don’t Doubt Mamma
5. Heavens Above
2. First Seal
13. Pure Pride

Race 7: AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m)
The big field (20 runners) will cause problems because two-thirds of the runners won’t run out a strong 2500m. So the question is, where will the stronger chances fit into the speed chart? My concern for Sacred Elixir, who I have on top, is that he needs galloping room with around the 650m mark to show his true wares. But he’s the best horse in the race, he has the best CV, he’s an ideal derby type (bold and leggy) and his win last start in the Vase was an ideal lead-up to the Derby.

Swear comes over from Sydney but Flemington should suit him. He ran second to Yankee Rose, who placed in the Cox Plate behind Winx last start, and that’s pretty good form. He’s has a quiet preparation and ran out the 2000m quite well and gets a good barrier with Tommy Berry in the saddle. His stablemate Inference intrigues me as he hasn’t been able to gallop out in his past two runs. He was held up at Mooney Valley in the Stutt Stakes two starts back and then in his last start over 2000m it was a muddling race with a big headwind and he was over-racing. He was crowded at the top of the straight when wanting to make room and the gear change here (blinker near side off) should help him see to the inside, meaning hopefully he won’t want to run in. If he gets some cover and runs into a slipstream he’ll be a good one to throw in at long odds.

Wine Bush is back at Flemington where he won two starts back, and this will suit him a lot better. He beat Rocketeer on that occasion, who has since franked the form. He got squashed at Caulfield last start but he was OK there and I can forgive him for that. He’ll run the 2500m out in any case.

Simon’s Tips
1. Sacred Elixir
3. Swear
6. Inference
9. Wine Bush

Race 8: Cantala Stakes (1600m)
I’m not worried about Palentino carrying 57kg under handicap conditions here. He won the Makybe Diva carrying 58.5kg and that’s weight-for-age form for mine and pretty impressive. He’s undefeated over the mile (two from two) and you just have to put a line through his run in the Epsom. It was a bit of an afterthought from the team to run him there with the blinkers on first up and the change of direction for the first time. He’s had plenty of time since October 1 to be freshened up and be right for this. He’s drawn perfectly in barrier 7 to get cover, he’ll be held up nicely by Mark Zahra and he grows an extra leg at Flemington. A danger and good odds is No. 9 Good Project, who’s already a Group 1 winner at the mile winning the Railway Stakes in Perth. We haven’t had much of a guide from his two runs in this prep. The 1200m was too short for him first up and second up he was fourth at Caulfield when he led, which he doesn’t like to do. He carried 58.5kg and 59.5kg in those two starts and now drops to 54kg and he’ll be tough to beat from barrier 1 if he can get out at the right stages.

Mackintosh is also a danger. He’s had just the two light runs and was terrific in the Epsom last start behind Hauraki. He gets nice cover from barrier 12 and at 53kg he’s a great chance.

And it’s hard to leave out He’s Our Rokkii because his profile is perfect. He was peaking to win the Group 1 Toorak Handicap third up last start and he’ll get a nice run just off the speed from barrier 11.

Simon’s Tips
1. Palentino
9. Good Project
11. Mackintosh
4. He’s Our Rokkii

Simon’s Early Special
A little quinella in the first race of the day, the Carbine Club Stakes, with No. 7 Acatour (to be ridden a little quieter) and No. 11 So You Too. So You Too is stepping up from the six furlongs to the mile for the first time. He was pretty impressive when pricking his ears and coming from behind to win recently, so could be one to follow.