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Premier League relegation battle: Who will stay up?

Everton's demoralising 6-0 thrashing at Chelsea on Monday keeps them right in the middle of the Premier League's relegation battle.

While they still have a game in hand on almost every team around them, Everton's goal difference took a huge dent - and now puts them level with relegation rivals Nottingham Forest on -16.

Everton defender James Tarkowski, speaking to Sky Sports, said the defeat left him the "most embarrassed I have felt" and the result "shows where we are at today".

He added: "We can only apologise to the fans who supported us. It is on the players. It is not on the manager and the staff. No excuses on our behalf, we need to brush ourselves down as we have a big few weeks coming up.

"I have had dark times here but the fans stick by us in the next game so hopefully they'll be there for us again."

Despite the heavy defeat by Chelsea, Everton, who have appealed against their latest two-point deduction for breaching Premier League financial rules, still only have a 5% chance of relegation, according to data analysts Opta.

BBC Sport breaks down the relegation battle statistics...

Premier League table

14. Crystal Palace

32

33

-17

DDLLW

15. Brentford

33

32

-11

LDDDW

16. Everton

32

27

-16

LLDWL

17. Nottingham Forest

33

26

-16

DDWLD

18. Luton

33

25

-24

DLLWL

19. Burnley

33

20

-35

WDDLD

20. Sheffield United

32

16

-54

DDLDL

BBC Sport takes a closer look at the state of play at the bottom of the Premier League.

Time running out for Burnley & Sheffield United?

The stats suggest Sheffield United and Burnley's chances are very slim, with Opta giving them both approximately 99% chance of relegation.

Opta's model suggests the battle is really between Forest in 17th and Luton in 18th, with everyone else given less than 6% chance of survival or relegation depending on their current position.

Predicted Premier League final table - Opta

14. Crystal Palace

0

14th - 33 points

15. Brentford

0

15th - 32 points

16. Everton

5

16th - 27 points

17. Nottingham Forest

35

17th - 26 points

18. Luton Town

61

18th - 25 points

19. Burnley

99

19th - 20 points

20. Sheffield United

99

20th - 16 points

The run-in

Crystal Palace: 21 April v West Ham (home); 24 April v Newcastle (home); 27 April v Fulham (away); 6 May v Manchester United (home); 11 May v Wolves (away); 19 May v Aston Villa (home).

Brentford: 20 April v Luton (away); 27 April v Everton (away); 4 May v Fulham (home); 11 May v Bournemouth (away); 19 May v Newcastle (home).

Everton: 21 April v Nottm Forest (home); 24 April v Liverpool (home); 27 April v Brentford (home); 4 May v Luton (away); 11 May v Sheffield Utd (home); 19 May v Arsenal (away).

Nottingham Forest: 21 April v Everton (away); 27 April v Manchester City (home); 4 May v Sheffield Utd (away); 11 May v Chelsea (home); 19 May v Burnley (away).

Luton Town: 20 April v Brentford (home); 28 April v Wolves (away); 4 May v Everton (home); 11 May v West Ham (away); 19 May v Fulham (home).

Burnley: 20 April v Sheffield Utd (away); 27 April v Manchester United (away); 4 May v Newcastle (home); 11 May v Tottenham (away); 19 May v Nottm Forest (home).

Sheffield United: 20 April v Burnley (home); 24 April v Manchester United (away); 27 April v Newcastle (away); 4 May v Nottm Forest (home); 11 May v Everton (away); 19 May v Tottenham (home).

But it's complicated...

While Forest's four-point deduction for breaching profit and sustainability rules (PSR) has been applied, they have appealed against the decision, which could complicate matters.

Everton had a 10-point deduction imposed in November, which was reduced to six on appeal in February, for PSR breaches in the three-year period up to and including 2021-22.

However, in January, they were charged again over alleged breaches in their accounts up to 2022-23 and the outcome of that was another two-point deduction. Everton have appeal against the decision.

Despite previous concerns that this PSR process could run beyond the final day of the season, the Premier League have now said that they want all appeal verdicts decided before 19 May.