PFL Championship 2024 predictions, odds, full card picks: Will Dakota Ditcheva become PFL's next superstar?

Another year, another set of PFL champions. To close out promotion's 2024 season, PFL crowns its best with six $1 million tournament finals Friday starting at 1 p.m. ET from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

PFL is offering a healthy Thanksgiving-size meal this year with a 16-fight championship card. Whether or not you believe that's a little too much Black Friday chaos, the six-fight main card has plenty to like, particularly in its final two bouts.

Perennial PFL star and 2022 tournament champion Brendan Loughnane is back in another featherweight final with hopes of snapping Timur Khizriev's 18-fight win streak. Loughnane has been a big success story for PFL and one of the better 145-pound fighters outside the UFC. Khizriev has obviously done quite well for himself, but has yet to make that big splash; a win like Loughnane could be exactly that.

Before a new featherweight champion is crowned, the women's flyweights take center stage with the best fight of the MMA weekend. Homegrown superstar Dakota Ditcheva faces undeniably her stiffest test to date when she battles one-time UFC title challenger Taila Santos in Ditcheva's second career five-round affair. If anyone can play spoiler in the Englishwoman's thus far perfect career, it's Brazil's Santos.

Those are just two of the six title fights on tap.

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

145 pounds: Brendan Loughnane (+260) vs. Timur Khizriev (-350)

The oddsmakers are showing a serious lack of respect for the former champion Loughnane against the rising talent out of Dagestan.

As unbeatable as Khizriev has been, he hasn't looked unstoppable and last fought to a narrow split decision against Gabriel Braga. Names like Daniel Weichel, Enrique Barzola and Brett Johns are the most impressive on Khizriev's résumé and showcased that he has the ceiling to be a major player within the division. However, Loughnane is no stranger to tough competition.

Loughnane, 34, also isn't a stranger to that historically strong Dagestani wrestling. His 2021 season ended with a semifinals loss to eventual tourney winner Movlid Khaybulaev, but via a close split decision. Loughnane and Khizriev are both tremendously well-rounded competitors and Loughnane has proven to be the better finisher of the two. That's with frequency and competition level.

Khizriev, 29, has only four finishes in his 17 career wins and will need to outlast the 35-fight veteran for 25 minutes in a surely grind-heavy clash. Expect a coin-flip decision win or Loughnane to wear down Khizriev over time with strikes.

I understand the oddsmakers' belief in Khizriev. The Brit just has more paths to victory.

Pick: Loughnane

125 pounds: Dakota Ditcheva (-400) vs. Taila Santos (+300)

How the PFL didn't make this the main event is beyond me.

Ditcheva has been one of the promotion's proudest developmental successes since she arrived in 2022. But when we talk about levels of competition, this matchup is universes apart — Santos has Ditcheva beat with ease, even despite Santos' pre-UFC record being arguably one of more padded of all time, with her first 14 opponents' owning a meager 19 combined fights of experience at the time of their bouts.

Santos, 31, is essentially the more evolved version of what Ditcheva, 26, can become and the odds are reflective of how strong the PFL marketing machine has been in boosting Ditcheva. Santos' Muay Thai is fierce and technical, accompanied by an incredibly sound grappling game that led her to wins over strong wrestlers Liz Carmouche and Roxanne Modafferi. Additionally, many thought Santos beat Valentina Shevchenko for the UFC flyweight title in June 2022, however the judges scored the bout in favor of the champion via split decision.

Santos is still one of the best in the world, but Ditcheva is legit despite still having been largely untested. She's defeated her opponents with performances she should be delivering relative to the skill gaps. Ditcheva is as "Dangerous" as her nickname suggests, utilizing soul-shattering knees in the clinch, powerful punches, and an improving, patient defensive grappling game.

Realistically, the odds should be flipped in this fight. You can't teach killer instinct though. Ditcheva has that and will come through to propel her superstardom to a new level.

Pick: Ditcheva

205 pounds: Impa Kasanganay (-185) vs. Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov (+150)

If you don't like Impa Kasanganay's story then you're just tough to please.

The turnaround the 2023 PFL light heavyweight champion has undergone is still a marvel to behold since finding himself on the wrong end of an all-time knockout loss in 2020. You know the one.

Kasanganay has gone 8-1 in the PFL with his lone loss coming via a close split decision to Bellator middleweight champion Johnny Eblen. He's an all-around athlete who can fight anywhere the fight goes and packs a knockout shot in either hand to boot. However, the same can be said for Bellator veteran Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov.

"Yag-Nasty" has gained serious momentum since his two-fight losing skid in 2021. He's won six straight since and continues to impress, overcoming former champions like Rob Wilkinson and Rafael Carvalho.

As a natural light heavyweight, Yagshimuradov will have the size advantage in this one, which will catch up to former welterweight Kasanganay eventually. Kasanganay has fit into his 205-pound division well, but certain hitters will still be a lot to deal with throughout 25 minutes. It won't be easy, as both are evenly matched, but Yagshimuradov has been putting things together as of late and I like his chances.

Pick: Yagshimuradov

170 pounds: Shamil Musaev (-250) vs. Magomed Umalatov (+200)

Somebody's zero has to go in the welterweight finals.

This is a pretty crazy fight to see happen. In battling their way through the 2024 season, Shamil Musaev and Magomed Umulatov remained undefeated with 17 wins apiece. The only blip on either's résumé is Musaev's majority draw with Michal Pietrzak from his final KSW appearance in 2022.

Since that Petrzak draw, Musaev has scored impressive knockouts of Logan Storley and Alexey Kunchenko as well as back-to-back wins over Murad Ramazanov. Holding an extensive Wushu Sanda background, Musaev has been a high-caliber finisher on the feet, but Umulatov matches his opponent identically in victory methods with his combat sambo base. Each fighter owns 11 knockouts, four decisions, and two submissions. I had to do a double-take when I first saw it. Talk about bizarre stuff.

Ultimately, Musaev is no slouch on the ground either and is defensively sound enough to halt Umulatov's offense. This is a highly competitive matchup no matter how it's sliced, but stylistically, I like what we've seen more from Musaev and the oddsmakers agree.

Pick: Musaev

155 pounds: Brent Primus (+400) vs. Gadzhi Rabadanov (-550)

Brent Primus has had an interesting career as one of the sport's most underrated grapplers.

Anyone you speak to who knows Oregon's Primus and trained with him will tell you just how insane he is on the mat, and he's proven that with submissions as rare as the unicorn-esque gogoplata. It's been a bit of a resurgent run for the former Bellator champion in his first PFL season, which has seen him submit Bruno Miranda and Solomon Renfro then dispatch Clay Collard with a unanimous decision.

There are some parallels to be made between this fight and Ditcheva vs. Santos. Gadzi Rabadanov has accrued a deeper résumé than Ditcheva comparatively, but against Primus, he'll face a decent step-up in name value and competition level. His nine-fight winning streak isn't to be taken lightly, though; Rabadanov earned his role as the betting favorite with impressive showings against Koji Takeda, Jay-Jay Wilson, Daniel Carey and Michael Dufort, in particular.

Although the odds gap might feel a little large, we've seen Primus' kryptonite be strong wrestlers who can match him in that department and stifle submission threats from the top. Rabadanov was choked out once in 2016, but has improved significantly since then and will cruise to his first PFL title.

Pick: Rabadanov

265 pounds: Denis Goltsov (+110) vs. Oleg Popov (-135)

Denis Goltsov is a PFL OG, competing in the promotion since its transformation from World Series of Fighting in 2019. Unfortunately for the big man, he's yet to win a heavyweight title.

Oleg Popov carries strong momentum heading into this title tilt, owning just one career loss that came eight years and 17 fights ago. Should he choose to employ a wrestling-heavy, grind-out game plan, he'll give Goltsov problems over 25 minutes. But Goltsov is a dangerous giant, and for him, the fourth crack at $1 million will be the charm.

There isn't ever much rhyme or reason at heavyweight, especially in the PFL. It's not a technical or complex prediction, I'll admit it. Goltsov is just a big, rangy, and consistent finisher, whether by knockout or submission. He'll catch Popov for a feel-good moment to start the main card.

Pick: Goltsov

Preliminary notes

Along with the PFL season championships taking place, the promotion also added the PFL MENA finals bouts to the lineup. While most of those fighters will be completely foreign to audiences who didn't follow the MENA events, some notable Bellator and PFL veterans are competing at the start of the night.

Costello van Steenis and Mansour Barnaoui competing so early into a fight card feel odd after the careers they've built. That just means we get to see them sooner, which can be viewed as a win. Ultimately, Jesus Pinedo vs. Jeremy Kennedy is far and away the best fight on the prelims.

Quick picks:

Abdalrahman Alhyasat def. Abdullah Al-Qahtani

Mohammad Alaqraa def. Omar El Dafrawy

Hattan Alsaif def. Lilya Osmani

Ali Taleb def. Rachid Haiz

Mohsen Mohammadseifi def. Georges Eid

Mansour Barnaoui def. Alfie Davis

Slim Trabelsi def. Abraham Bably

Jesus Pinedo def. Jeremy Kennedy

Asaël Adjoudj def. Jose Perez

Costello van Steenis def. João Vitor Dantas