NRL ladder predictor - Bad news for Broncos and Dolphins in race to play finals footy in 2024

There are just three games of the regular season left and the battle for NRL finals spot is getting intense. Round 24 saw a number of side's playoff hopes ended and Queensland sides the Dolphins and Brisbane Broncos also look set for finals disappointment in 2024. The situation is particularly disappointing for last year's grand finalists, the Broncos, considering the talent at their disposal such as superstar fullback, Reece Walsh, who could have played his last game this year after fracturing his hand.

Melbourne Storm went a long way to securing the NRL minor premiership after last week's top-of-the-table win against Penrith that gave Craig Bellamy's side a four-point cushion at the summit. It means the Storm should have the luxury of resting players before the finals series gets underway, which could benefit the likes of the Cowboys and Broncos, who both play Melbourne in the final two rounds.

Storm and Panthers wrap up top-two spots

The Storm play the Dolphins (home), Cowboys (away) and Broncos (away) in their final three games and two wins will guarantee them the minor premiership. The Panthers will be heavy favourites to beat the Raiders, Rabbitohs and Titans in their last three games before the finals, meaning the top two positions look to be a lock.

The battle for an all-important top four spot (and the double finals chance that comes with it) is set to go down to the wire, with the Roosters (34 points), Sharks (34), Bulldogs (32), Sea Eagles (31) and perhaps even the Cowboys (30) all hoping to cement a spot alongside the Storm and Panthers.

Roosters and Bulldogs favoured to finish in top four

The Roosters should have third spot sewn up and have a favourable draw with games against bottom-eight side's Gold Coast (away), Canberra (home) and South Sydney (away) to come. However, fourth spot - and a likely date with the Storm in week one of the finals - looks to be a three-horse race between the Sharks, Bulldogs and Sea Eagles.

Cameron Ciraldo's Bulldogs probably just edge it over their rivals in terms of the most favourable draw and will almost certainly go into their final three games against the Warriors (away), Sea Eagles (home) and Cowboys (home) as favourites. Manly plays both the Sharks (home) and Bulldogs after Thursday night's game against bottom club Wests Tigers and would likely need to win all of them to jump into the top four.

Cronulla Sharks tipped to drop out of the top four

The fourth-placed Sharks are currently in the box seat but face two tricky away fixtures against the Dragons this weekend and Manly in the final round, either side of a home clash against the Warriors. Craig Fitzgibbon's Sharks have dealt superbly with an injury list that includes former Dally M Medal winner Nicho Hynes and halves partner Brayden Trindall but only just scraped home against Newcastle in golden point last round and look to have run out of a bit of steam as the business end of the season approaches.

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Hynes suffered a complete syndesmosis rupture, plus a tibia fracture to his left ankle that sidelined him for two months. But the star halfback could return for Cronulla's final two games of the regular season, in what will be a massive boost for his side before the finals. But the Sharks may have to settle for a home elimination final against the 8th-placed side in the first week of the playoffs - that is if they finish the season in fifth.

Sea Eagles and Cowboys to secure top-eight finishes

Manly will back themselves to pick up at least two wins from their remaining three games in what would ensure their spot in the top-six and a likely home elimination final in week one. The seventh-placed Cowboys have their final bye in round 25 and will be guaranteed to stay at least two points ahead of the Dragons (possibly four points) after this weekend.

North Queensland finish the season with two tough games against Melbourne (home) and Canterbury (away), but if the Storm decide to rest players in their round 26 showdown, the Cowboys will back their chances of springing an upset. That seems unlikely considering the Storm can still be caught by Penrith in the race for the minor premiership and would only likely rest players in the final round, once it has been secured.

The battle for the eighth and final spot in the playoffs looks set to be the most fiercely contested though, with the Dragons (currently 8th on 28 points) looking the most likely to cement their finals status. The Dolphins (26), Broncos (24), Knights (24) and Raiders (24) are all mathematical chances of scraping into the playoffs but their prospects don't look as strong as the Red V's.

Dragons to play finals footy as Dolphins, Broncos miss out

In fact, if Shane Flanagan's Dragons can knock off the Sharks at home this weekend, they'll back themselves to beat the Eels (away) and Canberra (home) in their final two games and could finish as high as 7th, depending on other results. The Dolphins are just one win outside the top eight but play the Storm away this weekend so their position will likely remain unchanged.

Wayne Bennett's Dolphins finish their season with a home game against the Broncos in round 26 that will almost certainly end one team's finals hopes. The Dolphins play Newcastle in the final round but the Knights' finals hopes could very well be over by that point.

Newcastle are locked on 24 points with the Broncos and Raiders but all three sides would need to win three straight games and hope their nearest top-eight rivals lose their final three matches to scrape into the finals. The Broncos perhaps have the best chance of conjuring a miracle if they can beat the Eels at home and then the Dolphins away, before a final round clash against a Melbourne side likely to rest a host of players.

While Kevin Walters' Broncos side will be clinging to the hope they can still book a finals spot in 2024, it looks to be a bridge too far this season. One loss will all but end their chances, while more than one win for the Dragons will also make it a mathematical impossibility. It's a sad situation for Walters' Broncos, considering they came so close to winning the grand final last year.

Predicted top eight after round 27 of the NRL season

1. Storm (44 points)

2. Panthers (42)

3. Roosters (40)

4. Bulldogs (38)

5. Sharks (36)

6. Sea Eagles (35)

7. Dragons (34)

8. Cowboys (32)