NRL finals: The 'miracle' scenario that means 11 teams are still alive heading into Round 27
The Dolphins, Knights, Sharks and Dragons can all still make the NRL finals.
Heading into the final round of the NRL regular season an incredible four teams can still scrape into eighth place. After round 26, the Dolphins, Newcastle, Canberra and St George Illawarra all have a chance of clinching the final spot available in the NRL finals, although for the Raiders and Dragons they need a lot to go their way.
Eighth place is ultimately set to come down to the outcome of Sunday's match between the Knights and Dolphins at McDonald Jones Stadium - the final home-and-away game of the season. Coincidentally, the Dragons and Raiders also play in round 27, although the winner of that game would need the Dolphins and Knights to draw for their game's result to factor in the NRL finals. For the Knights and Dolphins, the equation is far simpler: win and you're in.
Away from the battle for eighth, home finals are on the line for several sides. Of the last eight games of the regular season, an incredible six have implications on the NRL finals series as the league braces for a hectic weekend.
Fifth-placed Canterbury and sixth-placed North Queensland will play for a home final at Accor Stadium on Saturday night, with the winner likely to lock up fifth. However, the loser can drop down as far as seventh if Manly defeats Cronulla.
In that scenario, the Sea Eagles can clinch sixth spot and a home final at Brookvale Oval - a massive plus as they have beaten the likes of Melbourne, Penrith and the Sydney Roosters at home this season. While losses in round 26 have dented the Sharks and Roosters' hopes of finishing in the top two and securing hosting rights in week one. Both are now at risk of finishing fourth and needing to travel to Melbourne to face the ladder-leading Storm at AAMI Park.
Penrith would lock up second place if they beat Gold Coast on Saturday but if not, the Roosters can leapfrog them if they are to beat local rivals South Sydney. To make their way to second place, the Sharks would need to beat the Sea Eagles and hope the Panthers and Roosters lose. Cronulla could also slip as low as fifth if they suffer a hefty loss and the Bulldogs thrash the Cowboys.
In the two games that have no finals implications, Melbourne take on Brisbane. The Storm have already wrapped up the minor premiership and the Broncos' round 26 loss to the Dolphins ended their finals aspirations. While in the other game, the Wests Tigers and Parramatta will face off, with the winner avoiding the wooden spoon on Friday night.
RELATED:
Sam Walker in horror update as Roosters rocked by triple injury blow
Channel 9 responds amid storm over Brad Fittler's 'gross' interview
South Sydney slammed by fans over huge backflip on Latrell Mitchell
What round 27 means for NRL sides in finals contention
1. MELBOURNE (42 points, +205) v Brisbane at Suncorp Stadium on Thursday night
Highest/lowest possible position: 1st
Melbourne wrapped up the minor premiership with a round 25 win with Craig Bellamy's only decision this week being the same as last week. How many players do I rest? Early indications are unlike last week most of their star players will play.
2. PENRITH (38, +180) v Gold Coast at BlueBet Stadium on Saturday night
Highest/lowest possible position: 2nd-4th
A win over the Titans will wrap up second spot and a home final. But a loss would leave them with a potential road trip to Melbourne to start the finals if both the Sydney Roosters and the Sharks register round 27 wins.
3. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (36, +267) v South Sydney at Accor Stadium on Friday night
Highest/lowest possible position: 2nd-4th
Will only manage to secure a home final if they can beat South Sydney and Penrith slip up against Gold Coast. A win against the Rabbitohs is important not just to get one up over their local rivals but also will save them travelling to Melbourne in the first week of finals.
4. CRONULLA (36, +202) v Manly at 4 Pines Park on Sunday afternoon
Highest/lowest possible position: 2nd-5th
The Sharks' chances of a home final are all but gone but still technically is a possibility. To finish second they need the Panthers and Roosters to lose and the Sharks to beat Manly. But their top four spot looks safe, with only a big Canterbury win and heavy Sharks seeing them drop out of the top four.
5. CANTERBURY (34, -134) v North Queensland at Accor Stadium on Saturday evening
Highest/lowest possible position: 4th-7th
The Bulldogs need a 78-point for-and-against swing in their favour to snare a top-four spot. They need to not only win big but for Cronulla to be hammered to enter the top four. More realistically, a win over the Cowboys will give them a home final, while a loss would see them drop to seventh if Manly beat Cronulla, which would mean they would travel to Brookvale next week, a disaster away trip given last weekend's defeat to them at their home.
6. NORTH QUEENSLAND (34, +51) v Canterbury at Accor Stadium on Saturday evening
Highest/lowest possible position: 5th-7th
A win over the Bulldogs will put the Cowboys in fifth spot and see them secure a home final in Townsville. A loss will leave North Queensland facing Manly in week one of the finals if they beat the Sharks. And that as mentioned above is a trip you don't want to make.
7. MANLY (33, +133) v Cronulla at 4 Pines Park on Sunday afternoon
Highest/lowest possible position: 5th-7th
Manly could theoretically finish fifth if Canterbury and North Queensland draw on Saturday night. However, most likely they will play the loser of the Bulldogs and Cowboys in week one of the finals. A win over Cronulla will see them host, while a loss will mean they have to travel.
8. DOLPHINS (28, +7) v Newcastle at McDonald Jones Stadium on Sunday afternoon
Highest/lowest possible position: 8th-12th
The equation for the Dolphins is simple, win and they finish eighth, lose and they could finish as low as 12th. A draw could also theoretically be good enough if the Dragons and Raiders also draw, a long shot but not impossible.
9. NEWCASTLE (28, -48) v Dolphins at McDonald Jones Stadium on Sunday afternoon
Highest/lowest possible position: 8th-12th
The same situation as the Dolphins, a win and they finish eighth. However, a draw or a loss and they are out.
10. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA (28, -124) v Canberra at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium on Saturday afternoon
Highest/lowest possible position: 8th-12th
Last week's 44-40 loss to Parramatta has taken their finals aspirations out of their hands. The Dragons can now only advance if they beat Canberra and the Dolphins and Newcastle draw. Alternatively, if they win by 76 more points than Newcastle do (or 131 more points than the Dolphins) they could go through.
11. CANBERRA (28, -129) v St George Illawarra at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium on Saturday afternoon
Highest/lowest possible position: 8th-12th
The longest shot of the four sides in the running for eighth. Canberra need to beat the Dragons and then hope the Dolphins and Newcastle draw. Otherwise, need to win by 81 more points than the Knights (or 136 more points than the Dolphins).
with AAP
