NRL fans left shell-shocked after ambitious Wests Tigers premonition comes true

Stats guru Aaron Wallace correctly predicted the Wests Tigers to pull off a dramatic one-point victory over the Eels.

It was the easy collect staring punters in the face. Yet, the majority ignored a vital stat and did our dough as Wests Tigers pulled off the seemingly impossible to beat Parramatta 17-16 at CommBank Stadium on Easter Monday.

Down 14-6 and with a man in the bin, the visitors fought their way back to hit the lead via an Aidan Sezer field goal 45 seconds from full-time. The Tigers then had to sweat through an after-the-siren penalty attempt from Eels skipper Clint Gutherson before pocketing the precious two points. And here's where punters will be kicking themselves.

Pictured Dylan Brown left and right Wests Tigers celebrate NRL win
NRL stats guru Aaron Wallace correctly predicted Wests Tigers dramatic one-point victory over the Eels. Image: Getty

Fox Sports stats guru Aaron "Wally" Wallace was telling anyone who'd listen that the Tigers winning by one point was almost pre-ordained. It was all because of a remarkable trend at CommBank Stadium – one of the club's many home grounds.

Four days before the game, Wallace told the Vossy and Brandy show on Radio SEN: "The Tigers are going to be buoyed by that massive win over the Sharks. "You'd have to think the Tigers are a chance of springing the upset.

"If they do that, I'm going to say it’s going to be very close (because) four of the Tigers' last five wins at CommBank have been by exactly one point. So let's hope if they do win, we get a one-pointer and what a way to close out the weekend."

TAB say only one punter backed the tip and it wasn't Aaron Wallace

TAB spokesman Rohan Welsh confirmed only one punter copped the tip and backed the Tigers to win by a point at the juicy price of $41, placing a modest $25 bet for a $1025 return. Sadly, the man who basically predicted the outcome didn’t get on.

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 01:  Justin Olam of the Tigers celebrates with team mates after scoring a try during the round four NRL match between Parramatta Eels and Wests Tigers at CommBank Stadium, on April 01, 2024, in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
TAB spokesman Rohan Welsh confirmed only one punter copped the tip and backed the Tigers to win by a point at the juicy price of $41, placing a modest $25 bet for a $1025 return and it wasn't Aaron Wallace. (Matt King via Getty Images)

"I don’t really bet on games very often – and I can’t really claim any kind of amazing insight, it was just a lucky find," Wallace told Yahoo Sport Australia. "The Tigers had come off the big win, so they were some hope of an upset, and being a big Sydney event on a Sydney radio show it was one of the games I wanted to talk about.

"This was one of those times that the numbers just jump out at you. Wests had a couple of one-point wins against the Eels at CommBank, so the next logical step - for my strange brain at least - is to look at their overall record at CommBank.


"It isn’t great but four of their last five wins there are by exactly one point. Vossy loves strange sequences like that, so there is the talking point I was looking for… and as it turns out, a genius prediction."