No. 7 USC at No. 4 UConn: What’s at stake in JuJu Watkins-Paige Bueckers showdown
Southern Cal head coach Lindsay Gottlieb collected her team in the locker room. Though the Trojans fell one win short of their first Final Four since 1986, Gottlieb’s message to the group that elevated USC onto the national scene again was positive. Such an explosion was not an easy feat, she told them last April.
“The way the country’s going to see USC women’s basketball is really different than it was four months ago,” Gottlieb said following an 80-73 loss to Connecticut in the Portland 3 region final. “That’s a powerful thing for the group here.”
USC (10-1) and UConn (10-1), led by national player of the year contenders JuJu Watkins and Paige Bueckers, respectively, will meet again Saturday (Fox, 8 p.m. ET) in an Elite Eight rematch under less acute circumstances. While there is no championship on the line (at least not yet), it will contribute significantly to NCAA tournament seeding. And for USC, it will serve as a barometer of how much further its program has come since climbing back onto the scene that UConn has long dominated.
The No. 7 Trojans, unlike this time a year ago, are national championship contenders fueled by sophomore generational star Watkins and a pack of transfers she compared to Marvel’s Avengers. They rank fourth in net rating, propelled by a third-best defensive effort (67.1). Few teams are better at protecting the rim or sharing the ball. Their sole loss is to defensive menace Notre Dame, a devastating blow on their home floor they can chalk up to a lack of early chemistry.
As USC treaded water on the West Coast the past three decades, UConn swam marathons around everyone. The country has viewed the Huskies as perennial title contenders who should do nothing except lift the final trophy in April. A 14-year Final Four streak and 11 national championships will do that to a program. Except, they haven’t won since 2016, and in Storrs, Connecticut, that is an eternity and a day.
Propelled by the senior Bueckers, the No. 4 Huskies are once again among the title favorites should their pack of top recruits remain healthy. That’s been a tough feat. In a continuation of the team’s health issues the last five seasons, shooting guard Azzi Fudd missed two games — including their lone loss to Notre Dame — with a sprained knee. She’s day-to-day heading into the USC matchup.
They're the best shooting team in Division I (51.6% overall, 60.6% inside the arc) and second in points per play (1.03), but defensively they’ve fallen slightly behind. Albeit, the Huskies have faced slightly tougher opponents than USC, taking wins against ranked squads North Carolina, Ole Miss and Louisville and previously ranked Iowa State.
The matchup features four of the five No. 1 recruits still in college: forward Sarah Strong (UConn ’24), Watkins (USC ’23), Fudd (UConn ’21) and Bueckers (UConn ’20). Center Lauren Betts (Stanford ’22) is at No. 1 UCLA.
Final Four preview?
It’s the second collegiate meeting between preseason AP All-America guards Bueckers and Watkins. It could be the last, unless they meet again in the NCAA tournament. UConn is third and USC is seventh in NET ranking, the primary metric for the NCAA tournament women’s basketball selection committee. UConn is a No. 2 seed in the Region 4 Spokane bracket with Texas, and USC a No. 3 seed in Region 1 Spokane with UCLA, according to ESPN’s bracketology projections released on Tuesday. They would meet in the Final Four.
Bueckers has said it’s her final year at Connecticut before becoming the projected No. 1 overall pick in the WNBA Draft. Watkins, whom talent evaluators have said is WNBA-ready, is not age-eligible until 2027.
The two finished with comparable stat lines in the Elite Eight game, though Bueckers was more efficient with her 28 points (11-of-23, 3-of-6 3s). Watkins scored a game-high 29 (9-of-25, 2-of-6 3s). UConn’s Aaliyah Edwards and USC’s McKenzie Forbes, each of whom scored 24 in that meeting, were drafted into the WNBA.
Player of the year race
The matchup will also serve as an early benchmark in the national player of the year conversation. Notre Dame sophomore Hannah Hidalgo, by virtue of her two-way performances in games against Bueckers and Watkins, has an early edge. By Sunday, all three will have played each other to set the non-conference foundation for decision-makers.
Bueckers became the first freshman to win major national player of the year recognition, sweeping the Wooden, Naismith, AP and USBWA honors in 2021. She’s averaging 20.6 points this season on career-high efficiency (65.9 EFG%). The rest of her per-game statistics are down slightly with more elite help around her than she’s had since that award-winning Final Four appearance.
Watkins, who set the record for points as a freshman, is averaging a third-best 24.7 points on 51.5% effective field-goal percentage. Her production has also dipped slightly with an elevated roster that’s led USC to its best AP ranking since 1986 and by far its most relevance in the last four decades.
UConn’s Fudd (10 ppg, 50 FG% in 19.2 mpg/five games) and USC transfers Kiki Iriafen (18.7 ppg, 9.2 rpg) and Talia von Oelhoffen (3.5 apg, 2.1 spg) are also on the Wooden Award top-50 preseason watch list. Strong, UConn’s second-leading scorer and 3-point threat, will likely make her debut on the midseason list in January.
