NFL playoff picture, clinching scenarios for Week 15: What Vikings must do after Rams' win

nate davis, usa today

Fri, 13 Dec 2024, 3:00 pm·8-min read

Every week for the duration of the 2024 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the league's ever-evolving playoff picture − typically starting after Sunday afternoon's late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday's and Thursday's games or Saturday's, if applicable).

What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference's seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday, Jan. 5.

Here's where things stand with Week 15 of the 2024 season underway:

NFC playoff picture

x – 1. Detroit Lions (12-1), NFC North leaders: For the first time in their 95-season history, they've won 12 games in successive seasons – and snatching Week 14's night's nail biter from the Packers officially qualified the Lions for the 2024 postseason. Big game with Buffalo on Sunday afternoon in Motown, but – given its interconference nature – one that shouldn't necessarily be crucial in the tiebreaker department if Detroit and its depleted defense stumble. Remaining schedule: vs. Bills, at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings

x – 2. Philadelphia Eagles (11-2), NFC East leaders: It took a surprising effort to overcome the lowly Panthers on Sunday. But, despite some postgame grumbling, the Eagles prevailed for their ninth straight win – remaining right behind the Lions before officially locking up a playoff spot later in the day when Arizona lost. Philly can sew up the division title in Week 15 with a win plus a Washington defeat. Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Commanders, vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants

3. Seattle Seahawks (8-5), NFC West leaders: They just completed a season sweep of the Cardinals, effectively giving them a three-game lead over Arizona in the division. However the Rams are very much lurking, now just a half-game game back after Thursday night's triumph – and with a win over Seattle already in hand. Remaining schedule: vs. Packers, vs. Vikings, at Bears, at Rams

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6), NFC South leaders: Their weak schedule down the stretch, plus Atlanta's ongoing collapse, has finally done what many saw coming – the Bucs vaulting into first place last week by beating the Raiders as the Falcons crumbled in Minneapolis. Atlanta's season sweep of Tampa does mean the Buccaneers, who most recently finished out of first place in 2020, need to remain plus one in the win column. Remaining schedule: at Chargers, at Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints

5. Minnesota Vikings (11-2), wild card No. 1: Beating old friend Kirk Cousins and the Falcons keeps the Vikes, winners of six straight, hot on the Lions' heels in the NFC North and conference at large. Minnesota can clinch a spot by beating Chicago on Monday night – though a Seattle loss would secure it first. Remaining schedule: vs. Bears, at Seahawks, vs. Packers, at Lions

Dec 8, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) celebrates his touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the third quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

6. Green Bay Packers (9-4), wild card No. 2: Getting swept by Detroit pretty much relegates the Pack to wild-card status, but they'll have to wait at least another week to clinch. Remaining schedule: at Seahawks, vs. Saints, at Vikings, vs. Bears

7. Washington Commanders (8-5), wild card No. 3: A week off, good as it should have been for the roster's health, didn't help Washington's prospects otherwise – Philadelphia pulling away in the division while the Rams drew closer in the wild-card race. Remaining schedule: at Saints, vs. Eagles, vs. Falcons, at Cowboys

8. Los Angeles Rams (8-6), in the hunt: Win out, and the Rams – now a half-game behind Seattle – are NFC West champs. But they're also applying pressure on Washington, though can't pass the Commanders this weekend even after beating San Francisco. Remaining schedule: at Jets, vs. Cardinals, vs. Seahawks

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA - DECEMBER 12: Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams throws a pass against the San Francisco 49ers during the second quarter in the game at Levi's Stadium on December 12, 2024 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

9. Atlanta Falcons (6-7), in the hunt: Their margin for error is gone and so is first place in the NFC South after their losing streak extended to four Sunday in Minnesota, when the Falcons fell five spots in the conference standings. Still their season sweep of the Bucs means they only need to pull even with Tampa Bay to reclaim the division lead. Remaining schedule: at Raiders, vs. Giants, at Commanders, vs. Panthers

10. Arizona Cardinals (6-7), in the hunt: They could've moved back atop the NFC West by defeating Seattle. Instead, the Cards lost their third straight and have just about played themselves out of contention for anything. They also fell behind Atlanta, which has three more conference victories than Arizona. Remaining schedule: vs. Patriots, at Panthers, at Rams, vs. 49ers

11. San Francisco 49ers (6-8), in the hunt: Thursday's loss to the Rams was a near-fatal blow to the reigning NFC champs, who have better than a 99% probability of missing postseason, per NFL.com. Remaining schedule: at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Cardinals

12. New Orleans Saints (5-8), in the hunt: Their best shot is to somehow win the NFC South ... tough as that's probably going to be with QB Derek Carr injured. Remaining schedule: vs. Commanders, at Packers, vs. Raiders, at Buccaneers

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - DECEMBER 09: Micah Parsons #11 of the Dallas Cowboys reacts after a penalty against the Cincinnati Bengals during the first quarter in the game at AT&T Stadium on December 09, 2024 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images)

13. Dallas Cowboys (5-8), in the hunt: Another devastating home loss Monday to Cincinnati just about extinguished their flickering postseason hopes, especially given the teams Dallas will see down the stretch. The Cowboys even dropped below the Saints, who beat them in Week 2, after the defeat. Remaining schedule: at Panthers, vs. Buccaneers, at Eagles, vs. Commanders

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AFC playoff picture

y – 1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-1), AFC West champions: The Chiefs swept away the Chargers on Sunday night to win this division for the ninth consecutive season. Buffalo's loss earlier in the day was a huge bonus, giving the reigning champs breathing room as they try to steer the road to Super Bowl 59 through Arrowhead yet again. Remaining schedule: at Browns, vs. Texans, at Steelers, at Broncos

y – 2. Buffalo Bills (10-3), AFC East champions: That potentially pivotal tiebreaker against the Chiefs isn't worth a whole heckuva lot if the Bills, losers of that entertaining show with the Rams on Sunday, can't keep up with the reigning champs. Remaining schedule: at Lions, vs. Patriots, vs. Jets, at Patriots

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3), AFC North leaders: They remain relevant in the discussion for home-field advantage while taking a two-game lead over the idle Ravens, whom the Steelers have already beaten once, in the division. The strength-of-victory tiebreaker currently keeps Pittsburgh looking up at Buffalo. Remaining schedule: at Eagles, at Ravens, vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals

4. Houston Texans (8-5), AFC South leaders: Despite their struggles, they effectively own a three-game lead over Indy in the division due to Houston's season sweep of the Colts. A win Sunday coupled with another Indianapolis loss would sew up the lackluster division for the Texans. Remaining schedule: vs. Dolphins, at Chiefs, vs. Ravens, at Titans

5. Baltimore Ravens (8-5), wild card No. 1: Good to get a week off ... though it cost them more position in the AFC North, further diminishing any shot they have at hosting a postseason game this season. Remaining schedule: at Giants, vs. Steelers, at Texans, vs. Browns

6. Los Angeles Chargers (8-5), wild card No. 2: Despite getting dunked (and doinked) by the Chiefs again, they'll have to do a lot of "Charger-ing" to cough up a golden opportunity in Year 1 under HC Jim Harbaugh ... though they will face additional playoff-caliber squads the next two weeks. A win over Denver keeps them above the Broncos, though the Bolts fall behind the Ravens due to their loss to Baltimore. Remaining schedule: vs. Buccaneers, vs. Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders

7. Denver Broncos (8-5), wild card No. 3: They've got a great shot at their first postseason trip since winning Super Bowl 50 nine years ago. But messing around with Indianapolis could get them into trouble. Losses to the Ravens and Chargers currently keep them suppressed as the seventh seed. Remaining schedule: vs. Colts, at Chargers, at Bengals, vs. Chiefs

8. Indianapolis Colts (6-7), in the hunt: Win in Denver in Week 15, and they'd be one game out of a postseason slot. Remaining schedule: at Broncos, vs. Titans, at Giants, vs. Jaguars

9. Miami Dolphins (6-7), in the hunt: They barely survived the Jets to barely remain relevant on the periphery of the playoff discussion. A Week 7 loss at Indianapolis keeps Fins behind the Colts. Remaining schedule: at Texans, vs. 49ers, at Browns, at Jets