NFL player props: Kyler Murray spams the juke button vs. Patriots

When the 4-8 Arizona Cardinals host the 6-6 New England Patriots on Monday night, Bill Belichick will be fighting to get into the playoffs, while Kliff Kingsbury will be fighting to keep his job. The Patriots opened as 1.5-point favorites. That line jumped a full point this morning, pushing New England up to -2.5. Here are three player props on BetMGM I like in tonight's game:

Hunter Henry over 29.5 receiving yards (-110)

Jakobi Meyers leads New England's pass-catchers in targets, but has been ruled out of this game due to a concussion sustained in last week's loss to the Bills. Henry is the second-most targeted pass-catcher for the Patriots, and gets the pleasure of playing against the league's worst defense versus tight ends. There have only been two games this season where a tight end didn't cash this prop against an Arizona team surrendering 73.3 receiving yards per game to the position.

Kyler Murray over 35.5 rushing yards (-120)

As Kingsbury and the Cardinals become increasingly desperate for wins, Murray's schemed runs and rushing numbers are going up like the club on a Tuesday. That's more correlation than coincidence — much of Murray's value as a quarterback rests in his legs and it's negligent coaching to not exploit his advantage as a runner. In addition to schemed runs in Monday night's game, we should also see a good amount of scrambles versus a New England defense that leads the league in QB pressures per game (10.3). Murray is averaging 54 rushing yards over his last six contests and has hit this prop in five of them.

James Conner under 61.5 rushing yards (-110)

When it comes to backfield production, the Patriots defense is stingier than Ebenezer Scrooge. They're surrendering the eighth-fewest yards per carry on the season (4.2) and just 2.9 yards per carry over their last three outings. New England has allowed a running back to go over this number in only three games this season. Arizona runs the ball at the eighth-lowest rate (38.6%) and ranks 27th in success rate when they do run it. Conner has eclipsed 55 rushing yards in just two of nine games this year.

Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, CBS Sports, and rbsdm.com (garbage time removed).