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NFL odds, betting: Jets are a key component of our teaser of the week

pamela maldonado
Betting analyst
·3-min read

Each week, the NFL presents a new storyline. Either teams are really dropping off from preseason expectations or are on the verge of a surge after early season tribulations. This is where teasing teams comes into play, by getting extra points with teams that could be on the verge of a breakout while fading betting favorites that could be inflated based on recent performance. Without having a huge list of options to pull from, the Week 7 NFL teaser presents a bit of a challenge.

As a reminder, here are some general guidelines to follow if you are wagering on NFL teasers to keep risk in check:

  • Stick to six-point teasers (you need to win more consistently to offset higher prices).

  • Keep it to a two-team teaser (the more pieces you add, the greater the risk).

  • Target lower-totaled games (the more points expected, the more variance involved).

  • Tease through the key numbers of three and seven (this approach is at the heart of all proven winning strategies).

GREEN BAY, WI - OCTOBER 16: New York Jets linebacker Kwon Alexander (9) celebrates a 4th down stop during a game between the Green Bay Packers and the New York Jets at Lambeau Field on October 16, 2022 in Green Bay, WI. (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Things appear to be looking up for the New York Jets. (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Current Week 7 teaser-leg options

Saints +8.5 at Cardinals, 43.5

Colts +8.5 at Titans, 42.5

49ers +8.5 vs. Chiefs, 48.5

Patriots -2 vs. Bears, 39.5

Jets +1.5 at Broncos, 38

Breaking down the landscape

I don’t love the above first four options. The Cardinals are getting back WR DeAndre Hopkins, which should help QB Kyler Murray, the 49ers are decimated by injuries on defense, and the Patriots could be rolling with QB Mac Jones behind center instead of Bailey Zappe. Jones over Zappe isn’t a bad thing, but I’m a believer in consistency, and changing the dynamics of an offense with a quarterback switch as big favorites is … for lack of a better term, spooky. So where does that leave us?

NFL Week 7 teaser bet: Jets +7.5/Colts +8.5

The Jets at Broncos offers the lowest point total of the week. With points at a premium, this immediately creates value for a Jets teaser. Denver QB Russell Wilson is dealing with a hamstring injury. Having been sacked 20 times this season — including 11 times in the recent three-game losing streak — if Wilson can’t create production in the air, he’ll try to do so on the ground. Wilson has rushed for at least 20 yards in three-straight legs. A hamstring injury could jeopardize that.

The Jets defense is why I like New York as a teaser leg. Head coach Robert Saleh finally looks to have a good thing going, at least defensively. The Jets held Packers QB Aaron Rodgers to just one passing touchdown with four sacks and forced four interceptions between Pittsburgh QBs Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky. An injured Wilson could certainly produce similar results.

For the Colts, QB Matt Ryan may finally be turning the tide. Ryan is coming off his best showing against the Jags in a 34-27 win, throwing three touchdown passes with no interception or sacks. The Titans are struggling defensively against the pass, allowing 13 total touchdowns — 12 via passing, the highest rate in the league. The Colts have an 80% passing touchdown rate, tied for second most in the league. Plus, the potential for a backdoor with the Colts is there, as the Titans are the only team in the NFL that has scored zero points in the fourth quarter.