NBA Power Rankings: Rampaging Cavs + X-Factors for each team

Welcome back to another installment of HoopsHype’s power rankings. Last time, we made New Year’s resolutions for each team. This week, we’ll look at an X-Factor for each team, someone or something that will have a disproportionate impact on their future success.

I take into account record, net rating, advanced metrics, a dash of recency bias, injuries, a little haruspicy, and common sense when doing these rankings, which is how I manage to make them objectively correct every time. I’m sure no one would disagree.

The trade deadline is less than a month away, so things might look different next time we do this.

1. Cleveland

X-Factor: Dean Wade

The Cavaliers are simply unstoppable when Dean Wade plays. This year, the team is 27-2 with Wade and 6-3 without him.

A meaty 6-foot-10 with surprising lateral quickness, Wade is a superb team defender with more than enough shooting to keep teams honest despite a microscopic 10 percent usage rate. The Cavs have outscored opponents by +13.6 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the court, a monster number.

Wade’s historical issues have always been health-related. If he can stay mobile, the Cavaliers may very well rampage through the playoffs like they have the regular season.

2. Oklahoma City

X-Factor: The Holmgren/Hartenstein lineups

The Thunder have had no problem steamrolling opponents so far this season even without the services of Chet Holmgren. Still, they have shown a small weakness going against bigger lineups, particularly those with scoring power forwards. They could find themselves facing several such teams in the Western gauntlet.

The Holmgren/Hartenstein lineups have yet to be tested, but the vision is clear. Hartenstein and Holmgren would provide fierce rim protection and should be capable of shoring up the Thunder’s porous defensive rebounding. On the other end, Hartenstein’s playmaking and Holmgren’s shooting and face-up game may require an adjustment period to fire on all cylinders, but the Thunder don’t need to concern themselves much with a regular season in which they already have a 6.5-game lead in the West.

3. Boston

X-Factor: Jrue Holiday

Quietly, Holiday is having a subpar year for a suddenly vulnerable-looking Celtics squad. His defense has regressed (from All-Defensive-level to merely very good, to be fair), his touches are down, his assists and rebounds have declined, and he can’t buy a basket from outside, partially due to a bum shoulder.

Teams don’t fear punishment when they put a center on Holiday, an increasingly popular tactic:

The Celtics’ struggles are interconnected. The team’s shooting is down across the board, and Boston hasn’t fully integrated Kristaps Porzingis back into the fold (the starters with KP instead of Horford have a woeful net rating). They also clearly lack the same focus they showed last season.

It’s likely that some of those problems resolving themselves will also put Holiday in a better light. The whole Boston team is in a bit of malaise right now. Until then, I’ve got my eye on his performance.

4. Houston

X-Factor: Jalen Green

This isn’t exactly a hipster pick, but if coach Ime Udoka continues giving Green big minutes, the young guard simply has to deliver more on offense.

Green has notably improved his defense year-over-year, a must for any Udoka rotation player, but the shotmaking hasn’t materialized. He’s shooting 38 percent on wide-open threes, which is fine (if not particularly great), but he’s also shooting a surprisingly high volume of three-pointers that are considered closely contested – nearly two per game, and he’s making just a quarter of them.

I applaud the confidence, but that’s just too many difficult shots. This is all too common:

Green typically surges in March, but for the Rockets’ sake, he’ll need to figure things out sooner than that… or risk getting bumped down the pecking order.

5. Memphis

X-Factor: Ja Morant’s health

Despite following through on promises to fly a little lower to protect himself (Morant’s dunk rate this season is barely more than half of his next-lowest rate), Morant has still missed a ton of time while dinged up.

It’s a shame because the rest of the Grizzlies have been fantastic, no matter who is on the court. Morant needs a solid stretch of time to gain some chemistry with his teammates (particularly rookies Jaylen Wells and Zach Edey; lineups with those three have decimated the league in a small sample) and find his shot. Morant has never been a strong three-point shooter, but his rim finishing is down a tick this year, too.

Morant will find his way again – if he can consistently find his way onto the court.

6. New York

X-Factor: Tom Thibodeau

Perhaps you think the Thibsian minutes narrative is overblown, but the Knicks have the two players averaging the most minutes per game, three in the top eight, and all five starters in the top 30 (as originally pointed out by Tommy Beer).

Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart can take the abuse, but OG Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns have troubling injury histories. At this rate, Jalen Brunson’s tires will need an air compressor to keep him rolling into the postseason.

It’s not just a minutes thing, though. The way Thibodeau handles the eventual return of Mitchell Robinson will be fascinating. The Knicks may be better defensively with Robinson next to Towns, but they’ll almost certainly be worse offensively. To what degree that seesaws and how Thibodeau reacts to the data will play an outsized role in the Knicks’ success down the stretch.

Finally, can Thibodeau find a little more offensive variety? It hasn’t hurt him in the regular season, but the playoffs are about counters, adjustments, and flexibility. He must disprove a shaky track record on those axes for New York to meet their potential.

7. Denver

X-Factor: Russell Westbrook

I just went into disgusting detail about Russell Westbrook’s fit on the Nuggets here, so I’ll let that do most of the talking. But the short version is that Westbrook has somehow further elevated the Jokic-on minutes while short-circuiting the Jokic-off lineups.

He’s been an individual positive, particularly given expectations (and his contract), but whether his unique fit on Denver survives the playoff crucible remains to be seen.

8. Dallas

X-Factor: Quentin Grimes

Grimes is having the best season of his young career in Dallas, cranking 40% from deep and posting career-best defensive advanced metrics.

What’s most exciting to nerds like me, however, has been Grimes’ burgeoning playmaking. A fourth or fifth banana on the Mavericks will never have many assists; too much of the offense runs through Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. But these recent games without those players have given more opportunities for everyone else to empty their pockets of all those dimes they’ve been carrying around. Grimes has had more loose change than I expected:

Grimes had three straight games with six assists in early January, and while he won’t post that every night, it’s encouraging to see that he can handle a greater offensive burden beyond just shooting.

9. Orlando

X-Factor: Health

The Magic are starting to reach Memphis levels of winning no matter who is on the court. Right when they get Paolo Banchero back, they lose Jalen Suggs to a back strain. Franz Wagner remains on ice as he recovers from his torn oblique.

There’s no reason to think the Magic are in danger of falling to the play-in given the incredibly stubborn success they’ve had thus far, but man, it would be fun to see this team play, like, a dozen games with its best players healthy before the playoffs begin.

I’ll also be watching Banchero closely over the next few weeks to see if he can pick up where he left off to start the year: in the midst of a third-year explosion. More to come on that.

10. Minnesota

X-Factor: Rotations

Coach Chris Finch has his hands full trying to find the optimal lineups for the Timberwolves. The team has plenty of talent, but finding the right fits has been awkward. Finch has already had to adjust to early-season struggles by benching Mike Conley for a surging Donte DiVincenzo.

DiVincenzo, Anthony Edwards, and Julius Randle are all capable secondary playmakers, but none are a point guard (as Edwards himself noted, he’s wired to score first, second, and third). Randle, Rudy Gobert, and Jaden McDaniels present major spacing issues when played together. Naz Reid, last year’s Sixth Man of the Year, has taken a step back defensively. Conley has declined.

I’m not as out on the Wolves as many seem to be, but right now, they have much to figure out before they can think of winning a playoff series.

11. Indiana

X-Factor: Andrew Nembhard

Anyone who watches the Pacers understands why Andrew Nembhard is so important. No, he doesn’t put up crooked numbers in the box score. But the stereotypical glue guy label doesn’t feel so tired when applied to Nembhard.

He sets mean screens. He moves the ball. He applies more rim pressure than you’d expect, and he defends like a second-rounder already looking for his next contract.

Add it all up, and lineups with Nembhard are outscoring opponents by a whopping 12.0 points per 100 possessions, in the 93rd percentile. He has one of the league's highest on/off point differentials.

I must note that part of his sterling statistical profile is due to Nembhard missing the beginning of the season, when Tyrese Haliburton struggled so badly. But Nembhard’s presence also amplifies Haliburton, and it’s no coincidence that the Pacers are 17-8 with him this season and just 5-10 without him.

12. LA Clippers

X-Factor: Kawhi Leonard

First, to anyone reading this in the LA area, I hope you’re doing okay!

No point in being cute here. The Clippers have been a fun story this season, riding a backbreaking defense to a solid 21-17 record, but you can reach the ceiling on a James Harden-led team in the year of our basketball lord 2025 without a stepstool.

Leonard’s return has gone under the radar, given all of the fire-related news coming from California, and he understandably looked rusty in his first few games back. But his play is an important storyline over the next few weeks. The Clippers themselves could be a feisty playoff team if he can regain something approaching All-Star form (he made an All-NBA team just last year!), and there’s even a tiny chance some creative and/or desperate team makes an offer for him the Clippers can’t refuse.

13. Sacramento

X-Factor: Doug Christie

Mike Brown was and is a good coach, but it’s evident in hindsight that the team needed a new voice. Christie’s has come through crystal clear. Now, the Kings are in the middle of a seven-game winning streak that appeared driven by opposing injury luck until they stomped a full-strength Boston Celtics team.

Keon Ellis has finally been granted the large role Kings fans have been clamoring for (including a whopping 49 minutes in a double-overtime win over Miami). First-round pick Devin Carter has made his debut and looked like a defensive dynamo, and Keegan Murray has rediscovered how to shoot (okay, so those last two can’t be directly attributed to Christie).

The new-look Sacramento squad is forcing a ton of turnovers and has shown a renewed focus on attacking the offensive glass, tactics you can attribute to Christie. We’re still in small sample-size territory, but there’s an increasingly large body of evidence that Christie has the Kings back on track for the postseason.

14. Detroit

X-Factor: Tobias Harris

Tobias Harris is loving the Year of the Snake. The much-maligned Pistons forward is averaging 16 points and seven rebounds on 52/48/95 percent shooting splits in eight January games, helping lead the Pistons to wins in seven of them (with only a three-point loss to Golden State marring their record).

Anecdotally, Harris has looked spryer defensively, too. I'm not sure whether that’s my lying eyes, small sample bias, or plain old truth.

The Pistons, as a whole, deserve your attention at 10-2 in their last 12 games. They’re making a strong push for the play-in and are just a half-game out of the sixth seed. For them to get there, though, they need this version of Tobias Harris to sustain.

15. Phoenix

X-Factor: Bradley Beal

It’s unclear whether Beal will remain a part of the Suns post-trade-deadline or not. Either way, though, his play as a reserve has been encouraging to see.

Beal hasn’t played fewer than 30 minutes per game, and while the scoring has been up and down (25, then 10, then 25, then 12, then 15), inconsistency tends to come with a move to the bench. Beal has kept his chin up despite clear displeasure with not being a starter, and it’s paid dividends: the Suns have won four of their last five, albeit against very weak competition. Like a slumping shooter using a free throw to find his stroke, sometimes a team just needs some easy ones!

Is this move permanent? Will Beal be used as ballast for a Jimmy Butler trade? The future is uncertain, but Phoenix looks like they’ve steadied themselves for the time being.

16. Milwaukee

X-Factor: AJ Green

Green has been a blast to watch in Milwaukee, finally earning some trust from Doc Rivers and a relatively steady role in the rotation. Shooting 45% from deep will get you on a Doc Rivers court, but playing defense will keep you there, and Green has been a stalwart on that end.

He’s probably a little overtaxed as a primary stopper, but he can do it in short stints, and he’s more than good enough to hold his own against a typical player. In traditional Bucks fashion, Green never creates turnovers, but he moves his feet well:

True 3-and-Ds are rare in the league. Most are lacking one part of the equation or another. This year, Green has lived up to the billing; there is a reason he leads the team in on/off point differential.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is doing his part, and Damian Lillard has been an All-Star offensively. The supporting cast has been up and down all season, though, which is why Green’s emergence has been so important.

17. LA Lakers

X-Factor: TBD

The Lakers are who they are at this point. They aren’t bad, but they aren’t likely to win even one playoff series. While the trade for Dorian Finney-Smith helps, he’s not quite a needle-mover. That’s why it feels like the Lakers will make one more move before the deadline.

I’m not sure it’ll be a move I would’ve made, though. Is Jonas Valanciunas or Jusuf Nurkic going to make a difference, or do they have their sights set on something juicier? To be decided.

(I wouldn’t count on Jarred Vanderbilt being the guy to flip the switch for the Lakers, but adding another defender will help!)

18. San Antonio

X-Factor: Devin Vassell

Despite so many obvious avenues for growth, current-stage Victor Wembanyama is already a top-10 player in the league. Understandably, the rest of his supporting cast has some catching up to do.

That starts with Vassell. After returning from injury, Vassell started the season off on fire from outside the arc, bolstering a bench unit otherwise light on shooting. But the Spurs rightfully view him as a core piece of the future, and they eventually reintroduced him to the starting lineup.

Although the team’s starting lineup has thrived (the Chris Paul/Vassell/Jeremy Sochan/Harrison Barnes/Wembanyama group has outscored opponents by 14.9 points per 100 possessions), Vassell has struggled individually, shooting just 40 percent from the field and 32 percent from deep in 12 games as a starter (although he did have a strong performance last night). His defense has also looked lackluster sometimes, although he may not be 100 percent physically.

Vassell won’t shoot this poorly forever, but the Spurs do need to find a way to integrate him more cleanly into the offense.

On a more positive note: Vassell has been on a campaign to tear the rim off the backboard this season, posting a number of surprisingly violent dunks. I thought I may have misremembered his athleticism from previous years, but he’s posting the highest dunk rate of his career. Jams like this have become almost commonplace:

19. Miami

X-Factor: Jaime Jaquez

Okay, the honest answer is Jimmy Butler, whose increasingly boring standoff with the Miami Heat (insert guy poking with stick meme) has the team in stasis. But Jaquez has the keys to let a Butler-less Miami out of jail, and he’s surged in a post-Jimmy world.

In his last five games, Jaquez has averaged 15/6/5 with two steals per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor. He’s made six of his 15 triples in that stretch, although volume remains an issue.

And although we didn’t see as much of it to start the season, Jaquez still can juke defenders out of their shoes the old-fashioned way, with footwork and pump fakes:

Butler is rumored to return at the end of his suspension, but the Heat would be wise to continue letting Jaquez cook, even if only for smaller stints.

20. Atlanta

X-Factor: The Lakers’ record

The Hawks are in a surprisingly optimistic place now compared to expectations after last year’s discouraging play-in exit. Jalen Johnson has been a monster, a 20/10/5/1/1 Swiss Army Knife seemingly finding new tools in his handle every game. Trae Young is leading the league in assists by a mile, and rookie Zaccharie Risacher has shown a high-level feel and connective tissue (although he needs to make a shot eventually). Dyson Daniels’ offense is worrying, but the defense has been sublime.

Atlanta feels like a team on the rise once again, but they’re not ready to make major playoff noise yet. That’s why fans are so excited about the unprotected Lakers pick coming their way in a loaded draft.

Right now, Los Angeles is 20-17, but they have a negative net rating despite excellent health from LeBron James and Anthony Davis. They’re just 1.5 games ahead of the San Antonio Spurs, who are out of the play-in. There’s a very real possibility of a late-season Lakers crash that allows the Hawks to add another talented young piece as they rebuild on the fly.

21. Golden State

X-Factor: Jonathan Kuminga

A nasty ankle sprain will sideline Kuminga for a few weeks, which is particularly poor timing for a Warriors team struggling to find its footing.

Kuminga had put together a very strong stretch for Golden State, scoring 34, 34, 18, and 20 points while attacking the boards in the four games before he was hurt.

Whether as a trade piece or as a part of the team’s core, Kuminga holds an outsized importance in the Warriors’ immediate future.

22. Philadelphia

X-Factor: Paul George

George is coming off two straight strong showings, scoring 25 in each to go along with double-digit rebounds and excellent efficiency numbers. Unfortunately, the team lost both those games, highlighting what’s been a disappointing season to this point.

There’s still time for Philly to turn things around. The 76ers are just two games out of the play-in, and their fate is ultimately tied to the availability of Joel Embiid, who is out now with a foot strain.

But even a full-strength Embiid can’t carry the playoff burden alone, and Embiid is far from full-strength. The 76ers brought George in because they believed he and Tyrese Maxey could save the team in the non-Embiid minutes.

Despite early struggles, that’s actually panned out to a degree: the Maxey/George lineups without Embiid have outscored opponents by 6.0 points per 100 possessions, a solid mark (although one I had to triple-check, as I would have never guessed that from watching the games). If George can consistently sustain this level of play, the 76ers should be able to make up ground in the standings.

23. Chicago

X-Factor: Arturas Karnisovas

Zach LaVine has been fantastic this year – 24 points per game on 52/45/82 shooting splits while playing some surprisingly solid on-ball defense (don’t ask about the off-ball stuff).

Nikola Vucevic is playing the best ball of his Chicago career, including 43% shooting from deep on nearly five attempts per game.

Yet the Bulls are still mediocre. While Vooch and LaVine had more trade value in past years, Karnisovas mustn’t anchor to that. He needs to move them for whatever he can get.

LaVine and Vucevic have done everything they can to boost their trade value. With a Top 10 protected pick owed to the Spurs this year, Chicago has to move their productive vets as soon as possible. Beggars can’t be choosers, and as we saw with the Alex Caruso/Josh Giddey trade, it’s not like they were particularly good choosers anyway.

All that said, I’ll believe AK moves his guys when I see it.

24. Portland

X-Factor: Deni Avdija

The Basketball Internet was largely confused when the Blazers traded Malcolm Brogdon, two firsts, and two seconds to acquire Avdija (and, let’s not forget, duck under the luxury tax – the Blazers have had a shockingly expensive roster despite their rebuilding status).

Avdija’s slow start to the season fanned the flames keeping haters warm, but he has found his way. Since November 17th, Avdija has averaged 16 points on blistering 50/40 percent shooting while putting up nearly five triple attempts per game. That he’s been so efficient for so long is even more impressive considering the less-than-ideal offensive environment around him.

Avdija has always been a stud positional defender, but now he’s averaging more steals and blockers per possession than ever before. He’s shown a little more gumption defensively:

Turbo turned 24 a few scant days ago. He’s a two-way player who just started the first year of a ludicrously cheap descending contract that sees him paid less than $12 million annually in 2027-28. Portland’s had plenty go wrong this year, but at least Avdija is looking more and more like a key part of their future.

25. Brooklyn

X-Factor: Tosan Evbuomwan

Truthfully, everyone on the Nets has a “pick me” sign hanging around their necks, and it’s hard to know who will still even be on the team in a month.

Cam Thomas is the likeliest player to assume the role of tank commander when the dust has settled, but he’s been good enough that the Nets certainly won’t be rushing him back from the various injuries and ailments he’s already accumulating.

So why not pick a player like Evbuomwan, someone fighting for his NBA career? In his five games this season, he’s 5-for-14 from deep and has had a few defensive moments. He also unveiled one of the more unusual push shots in the league:

Look at that thing! Magnificent.

I’m not sure a single Net on the roster right now will still be here in two seasons, so I’m more than a little intrigued by the guys like Evbuomwan, Ziaire Williams, Jalen Wilson, Tyrese Martin, and others who are fighting to carve out a future for themselves.

26. Utah

X-Factor: Brice Sensabaugh

The Jazz are a mess of cantankerous old veterans and unproven youngsters. However, as they give more minutes to their Padawans, they will have some interesting moments. Sensabaugh has caught my eye of late.

The stocky 6-foo-6 sophomore has shot well from nearly everywhere: 42 percent from deep, 73 percent at the rim, and 47 percent from the short midrange. He doesn’t do much else yet besides shoot, but that’s a solid foundation for a guy looking to make a name for himself on a rebuilding team. Sensabaugh dropped 34 and 27 points in two straight games recently; he certainly isn’t shy getting them up.

27. Toronto

X-Factor: Scottie Barnes

At just 9-31, any dreams of a Cinderella play-in run are deader than a vampire with a stake in its heart (I just watched Nosferatu, sorry).

The return of Bruce Brown is interesting, but this season is purely about figuring out how good Barnes can be. Developing some chemistry between him, oft-injured point guard Immanuel Quickley, and RJ Barrett would be nice, too.

While Barnes hasn’t had the shooting leap people wanted to see, he’s setting career highs in steals, assists, and two-point percentage. Some sloppy turnovers are a concern, but he’s also often in talent-bereft units.

There’s danger in letting a player like Barnes do whatever he wants in a zero-consequence system. I hope that coach Darko Rajakovic can keep Barnes focused while trying to develop him into the all-devouring monster Toronto thinks he can be.

28. New Orleans

X-Factor: Zion Williamson

Williamson’s injuries and immaturity (he was suspended for a game after repeatedly showing up late to flights and team events) have dogged another cursed season for the Pelicans.

It’s unclear if a healthy Williamson is even worth a maximum contract anymore. Incredible dunks aside, Williamson has shot just 48% from two-point range, an ugly figure for any power forward, much less a player of his pedigree.

Williamson has had some lovely defensive moments, which is encouraging. And he certainly could revert to his old form with more playing time to get in shape. But that’s why he’s the X-Factor: everything the Pelicans do this offseason will be a reaction to how Williamson plays (if he plays much at all) for the rest of this season.

29. Charlotte

X-Factor: Mark Williams

I believe in Mark Williams. The shot blocking and rim protection can be elite, the touch around the basket and in the air is real, and the jumper has potential. Williams is also an underrated passer when he gets a chance to sling the rock:

But at some point, all those skills must coalesce into something tangible. He never seems to get everything firing at the same time. Right now, lineups with Mark Williams are unbearably bad –  fourth (4th!) percentile in net rating.

Much of that is not his fault. His return to the court coincided with LaMelo Ball entering a prolonged cold streak, and Williams is still working his way back into game shape. Now in his third year, Williams has only played 76 total games – fewer than one full season.

Charlotte desperately needs an athletic rim runner. A healthy Williams has always looked the part in pieces, but he needs to put the puzzle together to contribute to winning – or at least respectability.

30. Washington

X-Factor: Alex Sarr

Don’t look now (it’s the Wizards; you probably won’t), but the second pick in the draft has been much more comfortable offensively since mid-December, particularly from deep.

Sarr still goes up hesitantly in the paint, but he’s 26-for-62 from deep in those 13 games, and he certainly looks confident and comfortable letting it fly.

Sarr’s a nifty passer with solid rim-protection instincts. He still needs to adjust to NBA physicality (the two-point finishing is abominable), and his game has many rough parts. He will have major clunkers, like a recent 1-for-12 performance against Houston. But the encouraging thing is that the bad nights haven’t clouded his aggression or attitude. He’s not afraid to fail (which is great, considering how often he and the Wizards have failed this season).

I’ve said it here before, and I worry it may have come off as a joke. But I’m completely sincere when I say that with another top draft pick coming, the 27-28 Wizards are on track to be a menace.

That’s it! If you liked what you just read (or want to hate-read some more), check out my newsletter Basketball Poetry for player deep-dives, statistical analysis, random basketball minutiae, and far more.

This article originally appeared on Hoops Hype: NBA Power Rankings: Rampaging Cavs + X-Factors for each team