Nathan Lyon cops massive new blow as Gabba pitch reveal could see Aussie spinner dropped

The Gabba curator has predicted the pitch for the third cricket Test against India will be back to its fast and bouncy best with plenty on offer for the seamers, but that might spell bad news for Nathan Lyon. Ricky Ponting and Brett Lee reckon Scott Boland will miss out, while Tim Paine and Simon Katich have suggested the Aussies should keep Josh Hazlewood on ice for one more Test.

But could selectors pull a massive curve-ball and drop Nathan Lyon? Hazlewood is racing the clock to prove his fitness for the match at the Gabba after missing the second Test due to a minor side strain. The right-armer was Australia's best bowler in the first Test and would walk back into the XI if he's fully fit.

But his return would spark a brutal call from selectors as it would mean someone else would be desperately unlucky to miss out. Boland was brilliant while filling in for Hazlewood in Adelaide, taking 2-41 and 3-51 while grabbing the key scalps of Virat Kohli, Yashasvi Jaiswal, Shubman Gill and Rohit Sharma.

His performance has sparked calls for the Victorian to remain in the team when Hazlewood returns, and some have suggested Lyon might actually miss out. The quicks were so good in Adelaide that Lyon was only required to bowl one over in the first innings and none in the second, taking 0-6.

In the first Test in Perth he took 0-23 from five overs, and 2-96 from 39 overs. He was used more in the second innings as India amassed 6-487, but if the seamers dominate again in Brisbane he might find himself struggling to get a bowl.

Gabba pitch reveal might spell bad news for Nathan Lyon

And comments from the Gabba curator on Wednesday suggest the Aussies might be tempted to go all-out pace for the third Test. David Sandurski predicted a return to the pre-Christmas window will bring with it more life and bounce, after the Gabba Test was played at the end of January the last two summers.

The last Gabba Test to be played in December saw Australia beat South Africa on a 'green monster' of a pitch in which the quicks dominated. The pitch to be used from Saturday also has a rather green look, and Sandurski reckons the pacemen will be in paradise.

"Different times of year definitely makes it different, it can be a slightly different pitch," Sandurski said. "Pitches later in the season might have a bit more wear and tear while ones early in the season usually are a bit fresher and might have a bit more in them.

"Generally speaking we still prepare the pitch the exact same way every time to try and get the same good carry, pace and bounce that the Gabba is known for. We are just trying to make a traditional Gabba wicket like we do each year."

Some bad weather in Brisbane over the last few days might also add some extra spice to the pitch, and there will likely be a bit on offer if it remains overcast on Saturday. It all adds to intrigue about whether the Aussies might be tempted to drop Lyon and play a four-headed pace monster of Hazlewood, Boland, Mitchell Starc and Pat Cummins.

Because he was used so sparingly in Adelaide, some have suggested the Aussies can afford to do without Lyon. Travis Head and even Marnus Labuschagne could provide some overs of spin if need be, and India's decision to overlook Ravi Ashwin and Ravi Jadeja in Perth proved the right one. Ashwin came back into the team in Adelaide, but only took 1-53 from 18 overs as India lost.

Nathan Lyon's good record at the Gabba

So with spin not having much effect on the series so far, could the Aussies do the unthinkable and drop their 532-wicket veteran Lyon? The Gabba has been a fast bowler's paradise as it always offers plenty of bounce for the pacemen, but that has actually played into Lyon's hands as well.

Statistically, the Gabba is Lyon's second-best ground in Australia, with 51 wickets in 13 Test matches in Brisbane. The only ground where he's performed better is the Adelaide Oval with 63 wickets in 14 matches. He averages 28.31 at the Gabba and has a strike-rate of 60.59.

And he's also performed well in recent Tests in Brisbane. Last summer against the West Indies he took 2-81 and 3-42, and in 2022 against South Africa he snared 3-14 and 1-17. The last time Australia played India at the Gabba in 2021, he took 1-65 and 2-85. However he's never taken a five-wicket haul in Brisbane despite his success, with his best figures 4-69.

Could Nathan Lyon be overlooked for MCG and SCG Tests?

Curiously, Lyon has a worse record at the MCG and SCG than on the faster, bouncier pitches in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide. His success lies in the extra bounce he gets from over-spin, rather than lower side-spin that is usually on offer in Melbourne and Sydney. It seems unlikely that Lyon will be dropped for the third Test, but if he doesn't have much impact in Brisbane it will spark huge question marks heading into the final two matches of the five-Test series.

Nathan Lyon's record at major Australian grounds:

• Adelaide Oval - 63 wickets at 25.37

• Gabba - 51 wickets at 28.32

• Perth Stadium - 29 wickets at 20.86

• MCG - 35 wickets at 32.13

• SCG - 48 wickets at 39.63