NASCAR betting: Kyle Larson is the Las Vegas favorite after his Auto Club win
How much did Auto Club Speedway foreshadow for Sunday’s race at Las Vegas?
The first intermediate track race of the season ended up with 2021 Cup Series champion Kyle Larson in victory lane. But it was hardly a dominating Larson win like we saw so often in 2021 at bigger tracks. Larson didn’t lead consecutive laps until the final quarter of the race and the top five was dominated by drivers like Erik Jones and Tyler Reddick for much of the race.
Larson enters Las Vegas (3:45 p.m. ET, Fox) as the favorite to win again and with good reason. He scored his first win with Hendrick Motorsports at Vegas a year ago and should have another fast car. And if Larson doesn’t win on Sunday, a driver with low odds likely will. It’s hard to see an upset happening.
But it’s also worth going through the field and looking for value. Daytona 500 winner Austin Cindric is at +3300 while his two other Team Penske teammates are under +1000. Cindric finished 12th at Auto Club with a damaged car after he won the pole.
Chase Briscoe is at +5000 to win at Las Vegas. He led 20 laps at ACS and finished 16th after a bad pit strategy call late in the race put him on the wrong tire sequence.
Kurt Busch started last at ACS and had to do a pass-through penalty right after the race started. He passed the most drivers of anyone throughout the race and finished eighth. He has +2500 odds to win on Sunday.
What’s the takeaway from those stats? Spread out some small-dollar bets in the midfield. Again, a favorite is likely to head to victory lane. But there were enough flashes from numerous drivers throughout the field to take a few fliers.
Here’s what you need to know below. All odds are from BetMGM.
The favorites
Kyle Larson (+450)
Chase Elliott (+700)
Joey Logano (+800)
Ryan Blaney (+900)
Denny Hamlin (+1000)
Expect to hear a lot during the race about the contact between Larson and Elliott at ACS if they’re running up front near each other again. Blaney and Logano have been fast at Vegas before and Hamlin finished 15th at Auto Club.
Good mid-tier value
Kyle Busch (+1200)
Martin Truex Jr. (+1600)
How often can you get Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. at odds like this at an intermediate track? All four Joe Gibbs Racing cars finished outside the top 12 at Auto Club but we think they’ll be much better this weekend.
Don’t bet this driver
Erik Jones (+2200)
Jones finished third and was fast throughout the weekend at Auto Club Speedway. While it won’t be terribly surprising to see him run in the top 10 again on Sunday, his odds are way too low to bet on a win.
Looking for a long shot?
Daniel Suarez (+4000)
Suarez started 15th and ran in the top 15 for most of the day at Auto Club before making a late charge to the lead and finishing fourth.
