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NASCAR at the Charlotte Roval betting preview: Can anyone beat Chase Elliott?

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Will things get stupid at the Charlotte Roval?

Sunday’s race (2 p.m. ET, NBC) at the road course/oval hybrid track is the final race of the second round of NASCAR’s playoffs. And something dumb is bound to happen.

There have been at least eight cautions in each of the first three races at the roval. And they tend to come in bunches. Each race has had at least one green-flag run of 18 laps or more and multiple cautions within a couple laps of a restart.

It seems inevitable that a playoff driver(s) will be involved in a crash during the race. At least one playoff driver has finished outside the top 20 in every roval race and there’s going to be some desperation on Sunday. Christopher Bell, William Byron and Alex Bowman all pretty much have to win to make the third round of the playoffs because of their position in the points standings.

Hopefully you don’t bet a driver who gets caught up in a crash. Here’s your weekly NASCAR betting guide below. All odds are from BetMGM.

[Roval starting lineup]

The favorites

  • Chase Elliott (+200)

  • Kyle Larson (+450)

  • Martin Truex Jr. (+600)

  • Denny Hamlin (+1200)

  • Kyle Busch (+1200)

Elliott has won the last two races at the Charlotte Roval and is one of five drivers with two top-five finishes in the three races on the layout. Larson’s average finish at the track is 19th but those two races came with Chip Ganassi Racing.

Truex has finished in the top 10 twice and could have a win if it wasn’t for a last-lap spin by Jimmie Johnson. Hamlin has the benefit of starting first and has an average finish of 15.3, though he’s failed to finish in the top 10. Kyle Busch doesn’t have any top 10s at the track either. And his average finish is 33rd. He needs to turn it around on Sunday to advance to the third round.

Good mid-tier value

  • Ryan Blaney (+1800)

  • Alex Bowman (+2500)

Blaney was the beneficiary of Truex’s misfortune in 2018 and won the inaugural race at the track after he started the final lap in third. Both he and Bowman have finished in the top 10 in all three races at the Charlotte Roval and each have an average finish of 4.7. Only Elliott has a better average finish.

Don't bet this driver

  • Bubba Wallace (+35000)

It may be tempting to bet Wallace at these astronomical odds after his win at Talladega. Don’t do it. He laughed in his post-race news conference about how bad he is at the Roval. His average finish is 27th in three starts.

Looking for a long shot?

  • Tyler Reddick (+6600)

Reddick is starting outside the top 25 but has proven to be a pretty good road course racer so far in 2021. He was 12th in his first start in the track in 2020.

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