Melbourne Cup punters lose big as 11-year trend continues in iconic $8.5 million race

Pre-race Melbourne Cup favourites Vauban and Buckaroo have continued an eye-opening trend after coming up well short in Tuesday's $8.5 million feature race at Flemington. 100/1 outsider Knight's Choice handed Irish jockey Robbie Dolan his first victory on any horse on Melbourne Cup day after shocking onlookers by making a late surge to pip Noboru Takagi's Warp Speed in a photo finish, with Aussie jockey Jamie Kah's Okita Soushi taking third.

For the top-rated Vauban and Buckaroo though, it was yet another Cup race that saw the raging favourites fail to live up to their top billing. The Chris Waller-trained Buckaroo could only manage ninth, while Irish master Willie Mullins' Vauban flopped for the second straight year after entering the great race as favourite. It means Fiorente's triumph 11 years ago is still the last time a favourite has won the Cup.

Damien Oliver claimed his third Cup on the Gai Waterhouse-trained Fiorente in 2013 and it's been a long time between drinks for connections of a race favourite to toast victory in the great race. Punters have typically lost big money after studying the form guides or landed on the favourites after listening to the myriad of experts and 2024 was no different.

When it comes to the top-rated horses in Flemington's iconic race on the first Tuesday in November, the stats around the favourites make for ugly reading. In fact, since Makybe Diva stormed to her unprecedented third straight Melbourne Cup as favourite in 2005, Fiorente has been the only other favourite to win the great race in that time.

In fact, just 32 favourites have won the Melbourne Cup since it was first run and won by the legendary Archer in 1861. That's just 32 favourites in more than 160 years that have gone on to claim the famous trophy, plus the prizemoney and prestige that comes with it.

Not that the jockeys, trainers, owners and connections to the favourites would pay any attention to those damning statistics. Their horses enter the Melbourne Cup as the top-rated contenders for a reason and one look at the form guide explains why so many punters will invariably back them in the betting markets.

Vauban flops for second straight year after going in as favourite

In Vauban's case though, 2024 represents another failure after the Willie Mullins-trained seven-year-old entered last year's Melbourne Cup as the favourite but became the latest to fall well short of expectations after finishing in the back half of the field. Connections for Vauban were hoping they'd learned the lessons from last year but the horse flopped again on Tuesday after coming in 11th to be just three spots better than its 14th-placed finish in 2023.

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Buckaroo also fails to live up to Melbourne Cup favouritism

The other pre-race favourite for this year's race was Buckaroo, the top-rated horse of the five that legendary Winx trainer Chris Waller has running. Buckaroo's wide barrier draw of 21 put plenty of punters off but Waller's Caulfield Cup winner fared slightly better than Vauban.

Ridden by internationally renowned Brazilian jockey Joao Moreira, Buckaroo ended up finishing three-and-a-half lengths back from Knight's Choice in ninth place. He was the second of Waller's five runners past the post, marginally behind Land Legend.

Waller said he'd hoped Buckaroo's impressive second at the Caulfield Cup would bode well for its prospects at Flemington on Tuesday. But the brutal truth is that 2024 represents yet another Melbourne Cup day when the favourites promise so much and enjoy the backing of punters all around the country, only to fail to live up to expectations.