March Madness upset picks: Ranking the No. 12 seeds to win in your 2025 NCAA bracket

tyler nettuno, for the win

Tue, 18 Mar 2025, 11:19 am·4-min read

Everyone loves a good upset during March Madness. Nothing beats the magic of watching a Cinderella run kickstarted with an improbable victory against a big-name program.

Even more than we like watching upsets, however, we enjoy picking them correctly in our brackets. And when it comes to upset picks, the most popular opening-round matchup is the one that pits the No. 5 seed and No. 12 seed against each other.

Why is this the case? Generally speaking, the 12 seeds are reserved for the most highly regarded mid-major teams. Often, they're better than many power conference teams and can be hypermotivated against a No. 5 seed, which is typically a solid team but comes from at least a tier or two outside the class of elite squads.

Since 2010 alone, we've seen 21 No. 12 seeds pull off the upset against No. 5 seeds. In 2024, Grand Canyon and James Madison knocked off St. Mary's and Wisconsin, respectively. Could another team join the list this year?

Let's take a look at the candidates. Here's how the No. 12 seeds in the 2025 March Madness bracket rank against each other.

4. Liberty Flames

UTEPâ€™s Corey Camper Jr. (4) dribbles the ball during a men's basketball game against Liberty on Saturday, Feb. 15, 2025, at the Don Haskins Center in El Paso, Texas.

Record: 28-6

Opponent: Oregon

The Flames boast respectable rankings of No. 60 in NET and No. 62 in KenPom. They had a mostly clean run to the Conference USA tournament title, though they narrowly avoided upset in a two-point win over Kennesaw State in the semifinals.

Liberty is a tough draw in Round 1 for an inconsistent Oregon team, but it will be by far its toughest test so far this season. The main thing working against the Flames' at-large chances before they locked up the automatic bid was a strength of schedule that ranks No. 141 and a nonconference strength of schedule that was even worse at No. 259.

They didn't play a single Quadrant 1 game during the regular season, and a 3-2 record in Quadrant 2 games with four losses in Quadrant 3 games doesn't exactly blow you away either.

3. McNeese Cowboys

Nov 11, 2024; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; McNeese State Cowboys guard Sincere Parker (21) shoots against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the second half at Coleman Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Will McLelland-Imagn Images

Record: 27-6

Opponent: Clemson

Led by former LSU coach Will Wade, McNeese locked up its second consecutive NCAA tournament bid with a win over Lamar in the Southland championship. Last year, the Cowboys were also a No. 12 seed but fell to Gonzaga in blowout fashion. Now, they face an Elite Eight team from last season in Clemson.

McNeese ranks just ahead of Liberty in both the NET (No. 58) and KenPom (No. 59). It also claims the No. 12 scoring defense in college basketball, holding opponents to just 64 points per game.

Like the Flames — who actually beat them by four points head-to-head on a neutral court back in November — McNeese doesn't have a Quadrant 1 win this year and is just 1-2 in Quad 2 games. But that win is an impressive one as it beat North Texas at home.

The Cowboys also gave No. 2-seeded Alabama quite a game early in the season, falling 72-64 — a defensive performance that stands out against a Crimson Tide team that led Division I by averaging 91 points this year.

2. UC San Diego Tritons

HENDERSON, NEVADA - MARCH 15: Hayden Gray #3 of the UC San Diego Tritons celebrates after a play in the second half of the Big West Men's Basketball Tournament Championship game against the UC Irvine Anteaters at Lee's Family Forum on March 15, 2025 in Henderson, Nevada. (Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)

Record: 30-4

Opponent: Michigan

The Tritons were perhaps the best story in college basketball this season, winning the Big West and securing a spot in March Madness in their first eligible season after transitioning up from Division II. This isn't just a feel-good story, either. UC San Diego has a legitimately impressive resume.

It ranks inside the top 40 in both NET and KenPom, and had the Tritons stumbled during the Big West tournament, they would have had a very real shot at making the tournament as an at-large. The metrics like them the most of all four No. 12 seeds, and while both their overall and nonconference strength of schedule ranks outside the top 200, they boast a pair of Quadrant 1 wins, which came against Utah State and UC Irvine.

UC San Diego is also a combined 11-3 in Quadrant 2 and 3 games, and it hasn't lost since Jan. 18.

1. Colorado State Rams

Mar 1, 2025; Fort Collins, Colorado, USA; Colorado State Rams guard Bowen Born (13) reacts with the bench after a play in the second half against the Utah State Aggies at Moby Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Record: 25-9

Opponent: Memphis

Colorado State ranks 12 spots behind the Tritons in NET and six spots behind them in KenPom, but these are holistic metrics that don't take one thing into account: This is one of the hottest teams in America right now.

The Rams' last loss came on Feb. 11 on the road against Utah State. Since then, they've won 10 in a row, and that stretch includes three Quadrant 1 wins, more than any other team on this list has all season. Colorado State also beat Boise State twice in that stretch, including in the Mountain West championship, to knock the First Four Out Broncos from the field.

The Mountain West has the highest average NET ranking outside the power leagues, helping give Colorado State a strength of schedule that ranks inside the top 90. Its out-of-conference schedule, which ranks in the top 130, wasn't too shabby either.

The Rams are battle-tested, making this a scary draw for a Memphis team that has struggled in the postseason under Memphis coach Penny Hardaway.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: March Madness upset picks: 12 seeds ranked to win in 2025 NCAA bracket