March Madness: A breakdown of North Carolina and the West region from an odds perspective

[Betting by region: East | South | Midwest | West]

There was little question about the first three No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament. There was some debate over the fourth.

North Carolina didn't win the ACC tournament and it seemed like Iowa State might steal the fourth No. 1 seed, but the committee chose UNC anyway (and had Iowa State as the fourth-ranked No. 2 seed, somehow).

Yahoo Sports' Frank Schwab and Scott Pianowski will break down each region from a betting and bracket perspective, with odds from BetMGM. Here is a look at the West:

Do you trust the favorite?

Frank Schwab: North Carolina is the favorite, and the most vulnerable No. 1 seed. UNC has a great guard/big combo in R.J. Davis and Armando Bacot, and they have some impressive wins. It’s not like they’re bad. But unless you like all four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four, this is probably the one you’re picking against. It’s hard to pick a No. 1 seed to lose in the second round, but if Mississippi State advances past Michigan State I could see them challenging UNC.

Scott Pianowski: The Tar Heels strike me as one of those tease rosters. Catch them on the right night, they look unbeatable — remember the 36-point pasting they put on Syracuse? And one month later they lost to the same Orange on the road, a game that Syracuse controlled for 40 minutes. UNC’s relatively low assist-to-basket ratio makes me wonder if this team has truly jelled. Nothing felt fluky about NC State’s defeat of the Heels in the ACC tournament.

Which non-No. 1 seed could make a run?

FS: It’s not like this is a bold pick taking the No. 2 seed, but there’s a lot to like about Arizona. Purdue’s first-round exit stole the headlines last year, but Arizona had its own first-round flameout and I think that'll motivate the Wildcats. They had some weird losses in a bad Pac-12 but they’re a well-balanced team. And don’t forget, the Final Four is in Phoenix this year.

SP: Arizona’s championship odds are a trifle shorter than North Carolina’s, which is telling — even if part of that story is the location of the Final Four. I suspect the Wildcats will get a little more love in Yahoo's bracket game, too. One thing that concerns me about Arizona is a tendency to play hero ball; sometimes the ball stops moving and someone (usually Caleb Love) takes a bad, contested shot. Granted, Love makes a lot of those heaves, too.

First-round game to watch

FS: Saint Mary’s vs. Grand Canyon is a fantastic matchup. Saint Mary’s almost ran the table in the WCC after an uneven start to the season. It's a familiar brand name among college basketball fans. Grand Canyon was good all season in the WAC. Tyon Grant-Foster is a fantastic story and a great college basketball player. He averages 19.8 points per game. Grand Canyon is a 5.5-point underdog, but we all know that No. 12 seeds are always good for an upset or two in the tournament.

SP: We both see North Carolina as potentially vulnerable, which means the 8-9 game between Mississippi State and Michigan State is a critical scouting watch. Both the Bulldogs and Spartans have been maddeningly inconsistent, to the point that none of their results look out of place. MSU is an analytics darling with a bunch of goofy results; this is a team that opened the year No. 4 overall but was out of the rankings before December.

Which long shot is being overlooked?

FS: When a No. 11 seed is favored in the first round, the committee probably made a mistake. New Mexico is a 1.5-point favorite over Clemson and maybe it should be more. Nevada has good guards and doesn’t have a glaring weakness. There’s no reason the Wolf Pack couldn’t upset Baylor in the second round either, considering the Bears aren’t the best defensive team.

SP: I had to triple-check the brackets to make sure New Mexico was actually an 11. It makes zero sense. The Lobos are 23rd in overall KenPom efficiency; they’re even one of the best teams against the spread in the country. I’d be surprised if they lost to an ordinary Clemson team, and New Mexico won’t be a heavy underdog against Baylor.