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Lions playoff picture: Scenarios, chances for Detroit to clinch NFC No. 1 seed

jacob camenker, usa today
·4-min read

The Detroit Lions have been perched atop the NFC for most of the 2024 NFL season. However, one of their top challengers has finally caught up to them.

The Minnesota Vikings have been within striking distance of Detroit since the Lions beat them in Week 7 but after defeating the Green Bay Packers 27-25 in Week 17, the Vikings briefly moved ahead of the Lions in the race for the NFC's No. 1 seed.

The Lions retook the lead in the conference standings with a 40-34 win over the San Francisco 49ers on "Monday Night Football." That will set up a critical Week 18 matchup between the divisional rivals to determine the winner of the NFC North and the conference's No. 1 seed.

How can the Lions clinch the No. 1 seed? Here's a look at the scenarios for Detroit to clinch a first-round bye in Week 18.

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Lions playoff scenarios

The Lions have already clinched a playoff berth and will be either the No. 1 seed in the NFC or the No. 5 seed. It all depends on whether they can stave off competition from the Vikings in the race for the NFC North.

Detroit will be the NFC's No. 1 seed if they beat or tie the Vikings in Week 18. The Lions will be the NFC's No. 5 seed if they lose to the Vikings.

As such, the Lions' Week 18 game against the Vikings will function as a winner-take-all matchup for the NFC's top seed.

Lions vs. Vikings tiebreakers, explained

There are only one way for the Lions and Vikings to end up tied in the standings at season's end: a tie in their Week 18 matchup.

The Lions would have the tiebreaker advantage should either situation unfold. Detroit beat Minnesota 31-29 in Week 7 when Jahmyr Gibbs racked up 160 total yards and a touchdown on 19 touches, so if the Lions win or tie the Vikings in Week 18, they will have a superior head-to-head record.

Had the Packers defeated the Vikings in Week 17, the tiebreaker scenarios could have been more complex. Detroit and Minnesota could have ended up tied in the standings with a Vikings win. That would have forced the NFL to go further down the tiebreaker list, as both teams would have identical head-to-head, division and conference records.

However, the Vikings handled the Packers in a 27-25 victory to render that possibility null and void. As a result, the NFL won't have to go beyond the first tiebreaker (head-to-head results) to find the winner of the NFC North – if tiebreakers have to be used.

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Lions potential playoff opponents

If the Lions are the NFC's No. 1 seed, they will get a much-needed first-round bye after which they would play the lowest-remaining seed in the NFC bracket.

If Detroit ends up as the No. 5 seed, it will go on the road to face one of the following three teams:

The Buccaneers are currently projected to be the NFC's No. 4 seed, and they need only to win or tie against the New Orleans Saints in Week 18 to clinch a playoff berth. If the Rams win or tie against the Seattle Seahawks, that would lock Tampa Bay into the No. 4 seed.

If the Rams lose to the Seahawks and the Buccaneers beat the Saints, Tampa Bay would become the No. 3 seed, and Sean McVay's Los Angeles squad would become the No. 4 seed.

The Falcons can only be the No. 4 seed if they claw their way into the playoffs. They will only get in with a win over the Carolina Panthers and a Buccaneers loss.

The Lions beat the Rams 26-20 in Week 1, lost to the Buccaneers 20-16 in Week 2 and didn't play the Falcons during the regular season.

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NFL playoff picture

Below is a look at how the NFL playoff picture looks ahead of Detroit's "Monday Night Football" game against San Francisco:

AFC

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winners, No. 1 seed)*

  2. Buffalo Bills (13-3, AFC East winners, No. 2 seed)*

  3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*

  4. Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South winners)*

  5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card No. 1)*

  6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, wild card No. 2)*

  7. Denver Broncos (9-7, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Miami Dolphins (8-8), Cincinnati Bengals (8-8).

NFC

  1. Detroit Lions (14-2, NFC North leaders)*

  2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3, NFC East winners, No. 2 seed)*

  3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West winners)*

  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7, NFC South leaders)

  5. Minnesota Vikings (14-2, wild card No. 1)*

  6. Washington Commanders (11-5, wild card No. 2)*

  7. Green Bay Packers (11-4, wild card No. 3)*

In the hunt: Atlanta Falcons (8-8).

An asterisk (*) denotes teams that have clinched a playoff spot. Teams that have clinched division titles are noted accordingly.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Lions playoff scenarios: How Detroit can clinch NFC's No. 1 seed