Hobbled Dawgs, surging Vols: What’s at stake in the biggest game of the weekend

Everyone who peeked at the 2024 college football schedule figured that on Nov. 14 would come a game of reckoning in the SEC. But almost no one expected whose reckoning it would be.

Tennessee travels to Athens this weekend to challenge the University of Georgia in one of only two games matching ranked teams. (The other is No. 23 Missouri at No. 21 South Carolina. Knock yourselves out, y’all.) It’s not a surprise that both the Vols and Dawgs are coming into the weekend highly ranked. It is, however, a surprise at where they sit.

One-loss Tennessee arrives in Athens with a clear path to the SEC championship and a first-round CFP bye. Head coach Josh Heupel and quarterback Nico Iamaleava have at last delivered a team worthy of the hue and cry of Neyland Stadium, and they’ve got the bones of Alabama buried in the checkerboard turf to prove it.

Two-loss Georgia, on the other hand, suddenly finds itself outside of the current (meaningless) playoff bracket and very much on the verge of missing the entire 12-team playoff. It’s quite the fall for the 2021-22 national champions, who had fully expected the Kirby Smart juggernaut to deliver title after title in the post-Nick Saban era.

And, of course, that could still happen. But it’s a whole lot harder for Georgia now, meaning it’s a whole lot harder for everybody. The transfer portal, NIL riches (which can have both positive and negative effects) and the absolute necessity of staying locked-in, every Saturday of every fall have all led to this: another Game of the Year in a season already full of them.

Heupel, like all SEC coaches in the 21st century, knows exactly how to craft the proper respectful-while-saying-nothing statement on his upcoming opponent. “Extremely talented, coached extremely well," he said earlier this week. "They play hard. They play fundamentally sound. They make you earn it in every way, and one that will be a great, great environment ... ”

You get the idea. Nobody puts motivational material on bulletin boards any more; social media handles that job just fine. Heupel understands how not to end up on an Instagram image with “We’re gonna kennel the Dawgs” or some other inflammatory line emblazoned in front of him. It’s wise strategy, even if it doesn’t make for thrilling content.

Smart, on the other hand, did a fine job of creating some social media heat this week, although he trained it on his own team rather than Tennessee. He called one of his own players an “idiot” for celebrating with Ole Miss (technically, with his friends wearing Ole Miss gear), then walked that back.

The big question for Tennessee is the health of Iamaleava. The Knoxville News reported this week that the electric quarterback is in concussion protocol, although no official announcement has been made. Heupel proclaimed Iamaleava in “great shape” on Monday, but a Wednesday report listed him as “questionable.” Iamaleava’s availability is likely the key reason behind oddsmakers’ 10-point-and-increasing line that’s favoring Georgia right now.

On the other side of the ball, Georgia faces significant questions about its identity. Which Bulldog squad will show up Saturday? The fearsome crew that eviscerated Texas and Clemson on the road and rallied from down 28-0 against Alabama? Or the tentative, directionless gang that struggled against Kentucky and looked lost against Ole Miss? Will Carson Beck look like the Heisman hopeful of his early season, or the interception provider of recent weeks? Beck’s 12 interceptions lead the SEC, and each one is a dagger in the Dawgs’ fading hopes of dominating the conference again.

So what’s at stake here? It’s tough to divine the CFP committee’s exact motives, but losses — regardless of opponent — will weigh heavily in their calculations. That’s bad news for Georgia, which can’t afford another L on the record and expect to make the playoff field. (Is a three-loss Georgia better than a two-loss program from another conference? Probably, but you are what your record says you are.)

For Tennessee, a defeat drops the Vols into the bubbling cauldron of two-loss SEC teams. Momentum and a current high ranking ought to be enough to carry Tennessee into the playoffs, and probably a hosting slot — assuming Tennessee wins out, of course, with Vanderbilt lurking. But a victory would almost certainly result in an SEC championship berth against the winner of Texas-Texas A&M — again, assuming that favorites win out.

So that’s what we’re looking at this weekend: A chance for one program to level up, a chance for the other to hold off the darkness. It’s exactly what we want out of a late-season college football game. How about that? The playoffs didn’t ruin the regular season after all.