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Fantasy Football Panic Meter: CeeDee Lamb's slow start is frustratingly familiar, but offers hope

dalton del don
Fantasy analyst
·5-min read

It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have a very limited amount of time to witness and analyze a player's performance. But never fear — Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be — if at all.

Lamb has yet to record eight catches or 100 receiving yards in any game this season after being drafted as the WR1 in most fantasy leagues. He’s the WR17 in fantasy points per game, behind Allen Lazard and Garrett Wilson, who’s been a frequent guest on the panic meter this year. Dak Prescott has struggled this season, when the Cowboys have scored almost five fewer points per game compared to last.

Still, signs point to bigger stats coming for Lamb. The Cowboys have a high PROE (pass rate over expectation) and the fourth-highest pass rate inside the 10-yard line this season. Prescott is averaging the second-most pass attempts per game, and Lamb remains the clear alpha on a Dallas offense that can’t run. The Cowboys are dealing with a bunch of defensive injuries, so volume should be there.

Lamb saw a 37.5% first-read target rate last week, and for what it’s worth, he got off to a similarly slow start last season (WR20) before exploding as fantasy’s WR1 after the team’s Week 7 bye. Dallas’ upcoming schedule (@SF, @Atl, Phi, Hou, @Was) looks like a dream for passing stats, including the fantasy playoffs (@Car, TB, @Phi).

Now looks the right time to offer trades for Lamb, especially with Dallas not playing this week.

Murray hasn’t thrown for 215 yards or more than one touchdown during all five games not facing the league’s worst passing defense (LAR) this season. He’s averaging a career-low 197.7 passing yards despite the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. Murray’s rushing has increased a bit another year removed from knee surgery, but he has zero carries inside the 10-yard line this season. Murray has been a disaster outside of scripted plays; he’s getting 9.6 YPA with seven of his eight touchdowns coming on pass attempts 1-10. Murray is getting 5.6 YPA with a 1:2 TD:INT ratio on attempts 11-plus.

Murray has been fortunate seven of his 13 pass attempts in the end zone have gone for touchdowns; Geno Smith has converted just 2-of-15. Harrison Jr. isn’t separating in a role that isn’t conducive to putting up big stats, and his status is in question after suffering a scary concussion last week.

Life won’t get easier for Murray with or without Harrison Jr., as Arizona easily has the league’s toughest upcoming pass schedule (LAC, @Mia, Chi, NYJ, Bye). The Cardinals don’t face a defense ranked outside the top six in QB fantasy points allowed until Week 12. Murray’s rushing helps his floor, but those expecting him be a top five fantasy QB have every reason to be panicked.

Ridley was held catchless over eight targets in a prime matchup last week, and he’s totaled just 14 receiving yards since Week 2. He owns by far the lowest targeted Passer Rating (34.3) in the NFL this season. Ridley also has seen the second-most uncatchable air yards per game, as Will Levis has struggled mightily.

The game broadcast team shared that Levis required a painkilling shot to play through his sprained AC joint last week, and he was clearly compromised. The Titans are toward the bottom of the league in pass rate over expectation, and Tennessee’s offense is getting the third-fewest yards per play (4.4). Ridley shouldn’t sniff starting fantasy lineups right now, and his panic level is extreme.

Jacobs is coming off a disappointing performance in a highly favorable matchup, and he’s stuck on just one touchdown all year. But volume has been there, as Jacobs saw 21 of the 26 RB opportunities before Green Bay’s last drive last week (he rested the final 11 minutes of the blowout). His Utilization Score (7.1) suggests Jacobs should be at least an RB2 moving forward, with upside for more on an offense averaging 400+ yards per game.

Jacobs ranks top 10 in carries inside the five-yard line and is due for touchdown regression. He’s a buy-low candidate in fantasy leagues.

LaPorta finally scored his first touchdown last week, but it required trickery and was his only target of the game. His 10.1% target share ranks 27th among tight ends, and his target rate (12.7%) ranks 32nd. He has just two red-zone targets on the season and is the TE26 in expected fantasy points, sandwiched between Mike Gesicki and Greg Dulcich, who’s been benched in Denver. LaPorta’s Utilization Score (5.1) puts him in low-end TE2 territory. Outside of the matchup with Tampa Bay, Jared Goff has averaged just 23.5 pass attempts this season. Volume will remain a problem for LaPorta on a run-heavy team that’s seen Jameson Williams emerge.

There’s obvious cause for concern with LaPorta, who was drafted as the No. 1 fantasy tight end in many leagues but looks like his team’s fifth option on offense. That said, Vikings opponents have by far the league’s highest pass rate (73%) and have averaged the third most passing yards. Minnesota has also been vulnerable to tight ends, so next week might be a good time to shop LaPorta after he posts his best game of the season.