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Fantasy Football Fades: Fins down for Tua Tagovailoa in Week 16

kate magdziuk
Yahoo Fantasy Contributor
·8-min read
Houston Texans defensive end Danielle Hunter (55) sacks Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) forcing a fumble in the first half during an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec 15, 2024 in Houston. (AP Photo/Maria Lysaker)
Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa could disappoint fantasy football managers in a crucial week. (AP Photo/Maria Lysaker)

Another week, another round of crucially important start/sit decisions. To help you make them, here's a look at six players with bust potential in Week 16.

Something to keep in mind as you're reading: a "fade" or "bust" designation doesn't automatically mean you should sit a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or available options on your waiver wire.

Tagovailoa has been on a bit of a hot streak of late (aside from Week 15's road dud against the Houston Texans), having scored 23+ fantasy points in each of the four games prior — the longest streak of such fantasy production in his career. Even though he'll be headed back to Hard Rock Stadium in Week 16 for a matchup against the San Francisco 49ers' injury-riddled defense, his fantasy outlook isn't so appealing.

Tagovailoa has two big concerns this week, the first being the matchup. Per Fantasy Points, San Francisco is allowing the second-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game over the past five weeks, giving up the second-lowest explosive pass play rate (9.0%) and second-lowest YPA average (6.22) in that span per PFF. Since Week 10, the 49ers haven't allowed a single QB to exceed 225 passing yards, having faced Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith, Jordan Love, Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford in that span, holding all but Josh Allen to fewer than 16 fantasy points.

The second issue at hand in this game is the likely absence of WR Jaylen Waddle, who's currently dealing with a knee injury suffered in Week 15. Despite some inconsistent usage of the fourth-year Alabama product, Tagovailoa's production with and without him on the field is startling:

  • Yards per attempt: 7.6 (with), 5.9 (without)

  • Completion percentage: 74.2%, 71.8%

  • EPA per dropback: 0.21, -0.08

  • TD:INT ratio: 13:2, 5:5

  • Passer rating: 107.9, 81.2

Heat check 🔥 Fantasy managers in one-QB leagues can undoubtedly find better options in Week 16 with far less volatility. I'm sitting Tagovailoa where I have better options.

The Steelers are headed to Baltimore for their second annual meeting with the Ravens this week, which means fantasy football managers should be on high alert about his potential low floor in a must-win week. Pittsburgh's coming off an abysmal offensive output against the Philadelphia Eagles — a game in which the Steelers didn't hold a single lead and RB Najee Harris saw his lowest offensive snap share of the season at just 33%. Unfortunately, fantasy managers should expect more of the same again in Week 16, which could lead to another dud from Harris in a crucial spot.

Not only will the Ravens' stout rushing defense give Harris fits — a top-seven unit in terms of YPC, yards after contact and explosive run rate allowed — but the game script will also likely be an issue. Though the Steelers kept it close in their Week 11 meeting with Baltimore (final score 18-16), the team is dealing with a number of injuries on both sides of the ball that could change both their defensive outlook (DeShon Elliott, Donte Jackson) and ability to keep pace on offense (George Pickens).

Per Sport Radar, Harris has played just 37.2% of offensive snaps (when trailing at the snap) dating back to Week 10, compared to teammate Jaylen Warren who leads the team with a 50% offensive snap share in such circumstances. In that span, Warren has run 89 routes to Harris' 62 as the preferred passing down back.

Heat check 🔥 Harris is not a must-start RB as more of a touchdown-dependent option in Week 16, having exceeded 12 fantasy points just once dating back to Week 9.

I'm not here to downplay the level of success we've seen from Rico Dowdle this season; once the Cowboys committed to him as RB1 and put the Ezekiel Elliott experiment to an end, he flourished. Dowdle leads all running backs in rushing success rate through 15 weeks and is coming off his third consecutive game of 100+ rushing yards. All of that is to say, he's playing some really solid football. However, Week 16's matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could be a spot for regression.

Though the Bucs have been a fairly average run defense unit this year, opponents have generally had a challenging time establishing the run — mostly due to game script. The Buccaneers have faced the third-lowest run rate in the league at 36.2%, giving up the third-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs on the ground this year. Don't be surprised if the Cowboys are playing from behind for most (if not all) of Week 16, which could impact Dowdle's workload, lowering his overall ceiling in a critical week for fantasy managers.

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Heat check 🔥 Dowdle is averaging just under 10 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) in losses this year, and the Cowboys are 4-point home underdogs with the possibility that things get out of hand rather quickly against this Buccaneers offense. Dowdle has a relatively safe floor, but if you're expected to be a big underdog in your matchup, he might be better left on the bench if you have a higher-ceiling option elsewhere.

Watch out, DK Metcalf. There's a new sheriff in town, and his name is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. After a relatively disappointing rookie campaign for JSN, he's shined in the second half of the 2024 season, having taken over as Seattle's primary target. Since Week 8, JSN leads the team with 57 targets, catching 48 of them for 675 receiving yards and 4 TDs — the WR4 in fantasy points per game in half-PPR scoring formats in that span.

Unfortunately, between JSN's breakout and a knee injury Metcalf has worked through this season, Metcalf's fantasy ceiling has been much lower than what managers would typically hope for. Metcalf hasn't scored more than 10.5 fantasy points since returning from the injury, with single-digit performances in seven of 12 games this year. Since the bye, JSN has been targeted on a higher percentage of his routes run (20.4%) than Metcalf (17.6%) with a near-perfect passer rating when targeted (140.1) while catching 92.6% of his targets.

Further complicating matters for the Seahawks receivers in Week 16 is any potential limitation for Geno Smith, who was forced from last week's game with a knee injury. Though he's off the injury report, if he's dealing with any lingering physical limitations, it could affect the overall game plan, favoring the quick passing game to avoid any extra risk of unnecessary hits. JSN would be the biggest beneficiary of that type of game plan, usually targeted closer to the line of scrimmage (9.3 yard aDOT) than Metcalf (13.8).

Heat check 🔥 Given Metcalf's track record since JSN's breakout and question marks about the health of his QB, consider him as a low-end flex play/borderline unstartable in most fantasy leagues, despite his high-end name value.

Every interception Cleveland Browns QB Jameis Winston had thrown up through Week 15 had fantasy football managers holding their breath; after all, how many can he throw before he's benched in favor of Dorian Thompson-Robinson? The answer is 12, apparently, as Cleveland has officially announced that DTR will start in Week 16 — heartbreaking news for the fantasy managers who have benefitted from Winston's signature, mostly inadvisable YOLO balls ... and for Jerry Jeudy.

Jeudy's already surpassed his previous career highs in receptions (70), receiving yards (1,052) and receiving success rate (56.8%) per Pro Football Reference. There have been two big contributors to that success (aside from the traits that made Jeudy a top prospect to begin with): the departure of Amari Cooper in a trade to Buffalo in early October as well as Winston's notoriously aggressive style of play.

Though giving DTR the start in Week 16 gives the organization a chance to evaluate his future with the team (assuming they've seen enough from Winston), his track record of production hasn't been any better, averaging 3.7 YPA on 146 career attempts with 1 TD and 7 INT to show for it.

Heat check 🔥 While Jeudy's matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals is an absolute dream, fantasy managers should consider him more of a flex option than a must-start in Week 16, knowing his floor is particularly low with DTR under center.

Since T.J. Hockenson has returned from a torn ACL that ended his 2023 campaign, he has generally underwhelmed, notching just two top-12 weekly finishes at the position over seven games. He's ranked 10th in targets per game (6.1) since Week 9, but a lack of touchdowns has him ranked as the TE17 in fantasy points per game behind names like Noah Gray, Mike Gesicki, Theo Johnson and Austin Hooper, for crying out loud.

It doesn't help that both Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison have flourished in that span, combining for 39 red-zone targets and 11 end-zone targets since Week 9 compared to 10 and three for Hockenson, respectively.

In Week 16, the Vikings get a matchup with the Seattle Seahawks, which could pose some challenges, especially for those working over the middle like Hockenson. Since the acquisition of LB Ernest Jones, the middle of the field has been a bit of a no-go for opposing units; Seattle's ranked 23rd in fantasy points per game to opposing TEs and the fourth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points over the past five games per Fantasy Points.

Heat check 🔥 Most fantasy managers won't have the luxury of sitting Hockenson this week, but if you've got other options like a Jonnu Smith, Brenton Strange or another waiver wire gem, they may just offer more upside.