Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya prediction, pick: Champ must make UFC 305 headliner ugly – or else
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 305 main event between middleweight champion [autotag]Dricus Du Plessis[/autotag] and former champ [autotag]Israel Adesanya[/autotag].
Dricus Du Plessis UFC 305 preview
Staple info:
Record: 21-2 MMA, 7-0 UFC
Height: 6'1" Age: 30 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 76"
Last fight: Decision win over Sean Strickland(Jan. 20, 2024)
Camp: Team CIT (South Africa)
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ UFC middleweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Black belt kickboxing (2nd degree)
+ Amateur kickboxing accolades
+ 9 KO victories
+ 10- submission wins
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ 16-1 as a middleweight
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Awkward but effective timing
+ Favors striking in combination
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Serviceable wrestling ability
+ Aggressive grappling game
^ Uses submissions to transitions
Israel Adesanya UFC 305 preview
Staple info:
Record: 24-3 MMA, 13-3 UFC
Height: 6'4" Age: 35 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 80"
Last fight: Decision loss to Sean Strickland (Sep. 9, 2023)
Camp: City Kickboxing (New Zealand)
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC middleweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Professional kickboxing experience (76-5-2)
+ Professional boxing experience (5-1)
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 16 knockout victories
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ Knockout power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
^ Good cardio and conditioning
+ Superb feints and footwork
+ Creative striking flow
^ Variates well to the body
+ Dynamic kicking arsenal
+ Improved counter wrestling
^ Underhooks, getups, separations
+ Active and attacking guard game
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya point of interest: Striking with the 'Stylebender'
Known as “The Last Stylebender,” Adesanya took to martial arts at a young age and is no stranger to dealing with power on the big stage. A cunning martial artist, Adesanya earned his moniker with a creative striking flow that helped him accrue titles in both the boxing and kickboxing arenas.
Seamlessly moving through space, Adesanya will intelligently use feints and footwork to help establish his reads and set up his shots accordingly. The former UFC middleweight champ keeps whipping right hands and crushing check hooks on a hair-trigger, while offering pinpoint counter-crosses when cleverly shifting to his southpaw stance on retreat.
When feeling in stride, the 35-year-old talent will unleash a dynamic array of kicks, whether they’re powerfully thrown from the rear or sneakily delivered off of his lead. And when Adesanya smells blood in the water, he will celebrate his reach by varying his punches, using extended hands to hide the kill-shots to come.
Adesanya's "sticky" jab:
Rather than immediately retracting his jab, he leaves it in Pereira's face to blind him against the follow up, frame to keep and measure distance, or hand trap to strip the guard. pic.twitter.com/dRYp4UOXhJ— Miguel Class (@MigClass) April 4, 2023
From hand traps that parlay into elbows, to clinches that lead to knees, Adesanya shows solid answers at multiple ranges that will come in handy for this contest – particularly as time wears on. But for as talented as Adesanya is, he, too, is not beyond bested by a fighter with a better game plan and tactics.
Enter Du Plessis.
A marauding madman from South Africa, Du Plessis is a deceptively well-prepared fighter who possesses a style that can be difficult to get a beat on.
Fueled by unbridled confidence and an insane athletic drive, discouraging Du Plessis appears to be a near-impossible task. Whether he’s looking to counter off a high guard or is blitzing forward spastically, Du Plessis always appears to be focused on the task at hand.
The current middleweight champion is also competent in both stances and will regularly shift to southpaw, which only further flusters opponents who are already struggling to get a grasp of his awkward timing.
Nevertheless, Du Plessis is not beyond being taxed down the centerline for his aggressiveness, so he'll have to be on his best behavior against Adesanya.
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya breakdown: Potential grappling threats
Considering the potential for chaos on the feet, no one should be shocked if this fight hits the floor on Saturday.
Although takedowns from the former champion’s side of the equation shouldn’t be overlooked, Du Plessis is the man more likely to engage in the grappling realm on paper.
Coming from a background in both judo and wrestling, Du Plessis is no stranger when it comes to scoring takedowns in mixed martial arts.
Sure, there are certainly some failed lateral drop highlights that aren’t the most flattering for Du Plessis if you dig deep enough, but the 30-year-old has his head in the right place in regards to timing and tactics.
For example, Du Plessis may not prioritize position over submission in the classic sense, but the South African fighter is good about using said submissions to transition into superior positions that allow him to get off damage.
Should the South African come into the fight with the intention to take Adesanya down, then I believe his best chances will be in open space via superior setups and well-timed counters.
Aside from learning how to better fight to his frame, Adesanya has always had a solid presence in the clinch.
Parlaying his kickboxing experience into mixed martial arts, Adesanya has shown a surprising amount of clinch savvy in regard to his counter grappling, all while maintaining the proper headspace to help keep strikes chambered off the breaks. From slick elbows to intercepting knees, Adesanya will possess plenty of threats that could stifle the approaches of Du Plessis.
Even when revisiting his first professional MMA bout back in 2012, Adesanya was already demonstrating a surprising amount of clinch awareness, hitting hip tosses and displaying a basic understanding of whizzers and underhook leverage.
Since that time, Adesanya has made steady improvements to his defensive grappling, smartly fighting grips and protecting his hips while seeking separations, typically while using the cage for assistance. That said, when Adesanya is grounded, there hasn’t been much progress to speak of outside the same half-guard retentions and options he’s been relying on – but it’s also been a while since we’ve seen him fight for prolonged periods off of his back.
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya odds
Despite the oddsmakers opening the former champ as the favorite, public money has come in on the South African and pushed this fight to a pick'em. As of this writing, FanDuel lists both Du Plessis and Adesanya at -110.
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya prediction, pick
Considering that I initially came into this fight leaning toward the sitting champion, I can completely understand why money came in early on Du Plessis.
Not only does Du Plessis have the ability to make this fight ugly (in more ways than one), but his training camp appears to prepare him well when it comes to game planning and tactics. Say what you will about Du Plessis' awkward style, the man is an effective fighter who is nearly impossible to discourage from his objectives.
If Du Plessis can get Adesanya down early and often, then don't be shocked if he's able to get enough damage to change the trajectory of this fight. That said, I still find myself being swayed the other way.
Although part of me suspects that this has to look like Adesanya's win over Derek Brunson for "The Last Stylebender" to be successful, I can't help but see some things in Du Plessis' game that could be exploited this Saturday.
Although Du Plessis likes to shift and counter off of his opponent's kicks, the South African's kick defense, in general, leaves a lot to be desired.
I'm not sure if Adesanya will shelf some of his kicks given the looming takedowns of Du Plessis, but the native of Nigeria, to his credit, has shown to trend upward with his City Kickboxing stablemates in regards to his wrestling and scrambling abilities. It's also important to note that Adesanya has spent multiple camps with wrestling coaches like Frank Hickman, so I suggest leaving some room to be surprised.
And if a majority of this contest remains standing, then I believe that Adesanya's jab and consistent bodywork will prove to be stylistically hazardous for the porous defense of Du Plessis (with or without a heavy leg-kicking presence).
It's hard to be confident considering all the stakes, emotional and otherwise, but I'll take Adesanya to remind the masses that his skills are enough to overcome any perceived hills that both his opponent and pundits alike are claiming he's over.
The pick is Adesanya to build off effective bodywork and force a stoppage by strikes in Round 2.
Prediction: Adesanya inside the distance.
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya start time, where to watch
As the main event, Du Plessis and Adesanya are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 12:30 a.m. ET. The fight streams live on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 305.
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya prediction, pick: Champ must make UFC 305 headliner ugly – or else
