Did Josh Allen's NFL MVP win leak on Polymarket? Last-minute odds shift raises questions
Josh Allen capped off a spectacular 2024 season with an historic NFL MVP win on Thursday night.
Many assumed MVP would go to Lamar Jackson, who was named first-team All-Pro, especially considering the same voters award both MVP and All-Pro teams. Instead, Allen became the first quarterback to beat out the first-team All-Pro QB for MVP since John Elway in 1987.
It should've been a stunning moment. But those following the action on Polymarket seemed to know about the result well ahead of time, leading to some serious questions about Allen's win leaking early.
Polymarket is an unregulated cryptocurrency-based prediction marketplace that allows users to bet against each other on everything from elections to Los Angeles wildfire damage. And unlike regulated sportsbooks, which closed betting on NFL awards weeks ago, Polymarket was still taking action.
Shortly before the NFL Honors show kicked off, Allen's odds to win MVP skyrocketed from 53 percent to 94 percent, alerting bettors that something was up.
Josh Allen has gone from 53% to 94% to win the MVP in the last hour on Polymarket… pic.twitter.com/br1w04Mu86
— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) February 7, 2025
According to Ryan Glasspiegel of Front Office Sports, much of the betting action was coming from a single user:
Over the course of the last month, the Polymarket whale is believed to have bet over $600,000 on Allen to win MVP as Jackson’s All-Pro nod gave him the edge. It’s not clear if the gambler had a supremely fortunate hunch, or somehow had inside information as to what the 50 AP voters collectively decided.
About $3 million total had been wagered on Allen to win MVP, according to the website, meaning the whale placed a fifth of all bets on the Bills QB.
Voting on NFL awards is completed at the end of the regular season and before the playoffs, meaning the alleged bettor here was hammering Allen's odds after the votes came in.
The NFL did not immediately respond to Front Office Sports for comment, but it wouldn't be surprising for this to raise some alarms within the league. News leaking out of the NFL is nothing new, obviously. But news leaking out that leads to hundreds of thousands of dollars in wagers on NFL Awards could indicate the process has been compromised in some way.
It's a tricky spot for the league. We've seen bettors outwit reporters before when it comes to things like the draft. We're not used to seeing bettors scoop the league when it comes to annual awards.
Maybe this was a one off or just a lucky gambler. It would be worth the NFL's time to find out for sure.
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This article originally appeared on For The Win: Did Josh Allen's NFL MVP win leak on Polymarket? Last-minute odds shift raises questions
