Daily Fantasy Football: Week 13 value picks and strategy
By Jordan Vanek
The basis for being successful in any daily fantasy sports contest, whether cash games or large-field GPPs, is finding value to build around. Using 4for4’s Yahoo DFS Value Report, we can uncover some of the best values at each position for the Week 13 slate.
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr, Raiders $31
Carr averages the most yards per game on passes 20+ yards downfield, and the Football Team has given up the fourth-most touchdowns on these throws. Overall, the Football Team gives up the most touchdowns per attempt and ranks 12th in yards per attempt allowed. Carr is leading the NFL in passing yards and is fourth in yards per attempt. This game also has a healthy 49.5 total, with a 2.5-point spread in favor of the Raiders.
Matthew Stafford, Rams $32
The Rams are 13-point favorites and in the games where they have won by more than seven this year, Stafford has thrown for over 300 yards in five out of six of them. The Jaguars haven’t given up a ton of passing touchdowns but are the fourth-worst team in yards per passing attempt allowed.
Running Backs
Alexander Mattison, Vikings $18
Dalvin Cook will be out this week, and in his last two games without Cook, Mattison saw 32 touches in each game. In both of these games, he had six receptions, and one of those games was against Detroit, where he scored 22.8 Yahoo points. On the season, Detroit has given up the second-most touchdowns, games over 80 rushing yards, and games over 20 points to opposing running backs.
Jamaal Williams, Lions $16
D’Andre Swift was playing extremely well lately, but he is now out with an injury, and Williams will be receiving most of his workload. The Vikings are the worst team in the NFL against the run, having the lowest stuff percentage, according to SportsInfoSolutions, and allowing the most yards per carry. The Lions are supposed to be at full strength on the offensive line, which has only happened twice this year — in those games, they ran for 229 yards and 168 yards.
Wide Receivers
Van Jefferson, Rams $14
Jefferson saw nine targets last weekend and came up with three receptions for 93 yards and a touchdown. This week the Rams take on the Jaguars, who run a Cover 2 at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. The Texans and Lions also run a lot of Cover 2. Against these teams, Jefferson had over 10 points while operating as the WR3 behind Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. Woods is out for the year, and his replacement, Odell Beckham, is nursing a hip injury.
DeVonta Smith, Eagles $18
The Jets run Cover 1 at the third-highest rate in the NFL, and on the season, Smith has 11 receptions for 221 yards and two touchdowns against Cover 1. Smith has run the most deep routes and accounts for the only deep touchdowns for the Eagles this season. Smith has run a route on over 90% of dropbacks in four straight games and has at least a 25% target share in three of the last four games.
[Play in Yahoo's Week 13 Million Dollar Baller DFS contest]
Tight Ends
Brevin Jordan, Texans $10
Jordan found the end zone last weekend, but more importantly, he led the tight end room in routes run and now plays the team that ranks 31st in 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position. The Colts are one of three teams to give up multiple 100-yard games to the tight end position and haven’t held a tight end under 10 fantasy points since Week 7 in a game that had terrible weather.
Logan Thomas, Football Team $19
In Thomas’ return from injury, he ran a route on 68% of the snaps and had a 17% target share. This week he takes on the Raiders, who have given up the third-most touchdowns to tight ends, and are tied for the most games allowing over 15 points to the position.
Defenses
Dolphins, $14
In three of the last four games, the Dolphins have two or more turnovers. They are also averaging four sacks a game in their previous four games. This week they will be taking on the Giants, who could have Mike Glennon as their starting quarterback. In his one appearance this year against the Cowboys, he threw two interceptions and one of them was for a touchdown.
Chargers, $10
Joe Burrow has been sacked at least twice in four straight games and thrown an interception in six of the last seven games. The Chargers get pressure at a 42.3% rate, top 10 in the league, and the Bengals have given up the 10th-most sacks in the NFL.