Bryce Young: Why it's too soon to call 2023 No. 1 NFL draft pick a bust
For now, Bryce Young goes down in the history books like no No. 1 pick before him.
The Carolina Panthers benched the former Alabama star this week, instead turning to veteran Andy Dalton when they face the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. It means Young, the top selection in the 2023 NFL draft, becomes the first quarterback picked No. 1 overall since 1967 to be benched for non-injury reasons, according to ESPN. If Young were not to regain the starting job in Carolina eventually, it would be the shortest stint between a quarterback and the team that chose him at No. 1 during the Super Bowl era.
Yes, not even the infamous JaMarcus Russell had this quick of a hook with the Oakland Raiders. He wasn’t benched until after the second game of his third season in the NFL after going No. 1 overall in the 2007 draft.
Though Russell never made it to a fourth season, there have been 36 quarterbacks taken No. 1 in the NFL draft and history suggests this setback won't necessarily cement Young as one of the biggest busts in league history. But it's obviously not a good sign, either.
Here's everything you should know about Young's benching with the Panthers, how he compares to other No. 1 picks in the NFL draft, and what this means for his future:
COLUMN: Bryce Young needs to escape Panthers to have any shot at reviving NFL career
Why Bryce Young was benched by Carolina Panthers
First-year Panthers coach Dave Canales announced Young would not be the team’s starting quarterback Monday after Carolina dropped to 0-2 with a 26-3 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Immediately after the game, however, Canales had indicated Young would remain the starter.
But the Panthers were outscored by 60 points in their first two games, with just one offensive touchdown, after an offseason in which the team believed it had upgraded Young’s supporting cast. Patience wore out when Young threw for just 84 yards against the Chargers.
"Certainly a lot of parties involved there, and ultimately this comes on me,” Canales told reporters about the decision. "My No. 1 responsibility is to help the Panthers win, and so this move puts us in the best chance to do that."
Young, 23, was 2-16 as Carolina’s starting quarterback after the franchise traded up in the 2023 draft with the Chicago Bears, and traded away what became the 2024 No. 1 pick, to get him. Young had the worst record through his first 18 starts of any quarterback taken No. 1 overall since Terry Bradshaw went No. 1 overall in the 1970 draft.
How Bryce Young compares to other No. 1 QB picks
Though the beginning to Young’s NFL career has been a nightmare, his early struggles aren’t an anomaly. Indeed, Carolina may be risking more turning away from Young this early than if it were to stick with him.
Bradshaw, the No. 1 overall pick in 1970, threw 46 interceptions and just 19 touchdown passes combined in his first two seasons before winning four Super Bowls with the Pittsburgh Steelers. He completed better than 50 percent of his passes just twice in his first seven years in the NFL.
John Elway, drafted No. 1 by the Baltimore Colts in 1983 before being traded to the Denver Broncos, went to the Super Bowl in year four and won NFL MVP in year five, but he still had more interceptions (23) than touchdown passes (22) during his third year in the league.
Troy Aikman, the No. 1 pick in the 1989 NFL draft, had a 3-15 record through his first 18 games as a starter in Dallas, just one win better than Young at the outset of a Hall of Fame career. Trevor Lawrence was also 3-15 with the Jacksonville Jaguars, and he made the playoffs in his second season.
Jeff George, the No. 1 pick in 1990, never got benched when he finished with a 1-15 record as a starter in his second season with the Indianapolis Colts. Neither did 1987 No. 1 pick Vinny Testaverde when he threw 35 interceptions in his second season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Neither did David Carr, the Houston Texans’ No. 1 pick in 2002, when he completed just 54.1 percent of his passes through his first two seasons as a starter.
Russell, the most notorious quarterback bust to go No. 1 overall in the NFL draft, had a 6-12 record in his first 18 games as an NFL starter in Oakland. Russell completed 52.1% of his passes for 4,083 yards, 18 touchdowns and 23 interceptions in 24 starts with the Raiders. Young was slightly more accurate and averaged more yards per game than Russell but was on track to finish with fewer touchdowns.
When do QBs taken No. 1 in NFL draft succeed?
Quarterbacks chosen No. 1 overall since 1970 have stayed with their original team an average of more than seven seasons. This trend demonstrates both how far Young has to climb to be a successful NFL quarterback and how shortsighted the Panthers’ move to bench him might be.
Of the 19 quarterbacks taken No. 1 overall over the 30 years prior to Carolina choosing Young, only Tim Couch (Cleveland Browns, 1999), David Carr (Houston Texans, 2002), Alex Smith (San Francisco 49ers, 2005) and Sam Bradford (St. Louis Cardinals, 2010) did not make the playoffs or Pro Bowl by their third season in the league. The best No. 1 picks all-time include Elway, Aikman, Peyton Manning (1998) and Eli Manning (2004).
There are also some redemption stories of No. 1 picks who didn't work out with the team to which they were drafted. Jim Plunkett left New England and won two Super Bowls with the Raiders. Testaverde made the Pro Bowl with the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets later in his career. Carson Palmer left Cincinnati and Oakland and made the playoffs in Arizona.
Smith was traded away from San Francisco and led the Chiefs to playoffs. Jared Goff made the Super Bowl with the Rams and then made the NFC Championship game with the Lions, who traded for him by giving up former No. 1 pick Matthew Stafford. Stafford, of course, won a Super Bowl with the Rams after leaving Detroit. Baker Mayfield, the No. 1 pick by the Cleveland Browns in 2018, is also in the midst of a resurgence with Tampa Bay.
Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals, 2019), Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals, 2020), Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars, 2021) and Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears, 2024) are the only active quarterbacks besides Young still with the team that picked them No. 1. Murray, Burrow and Lawrence have since signed lucrative contract extensions with their original team.
Will Panthers trade Bryce Young?
Young’s future in Carolina is uncertain, and there are playoff hopefuls like the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers who have already lost their starting quarterbacks due to injury through two weeks of the 2024 NFL season. But Canales told reporters this week that trading Young is “not something we’re really considering.”
Young signed a fully guaranteed 4-year, $39.86 million contract last year coming out of Alabama.
Bryce Young NFL stats
Career record: 2-16
3,122 yards
11 TDs
13 INTs
59.3% completion percentage
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Is Bryce Young a bust? How Panthers No. 1 pick stacks up
