What are the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history?

christian d'andrea

Sat, 8 Feb 2025, 10:30 am·2-min read

Giants receiver David Tyree catches a pass while in the clutches of Patriots safety Rodney Harrison en route to New York's 17-14 victory over New England in Super Bowl XLII.

Sportsbooks expect a close game when the Philadelphia Eagles meet the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 59. The betting public has pegged Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid as 1.5-point favorites to be the first team in NFL history to ever three-peat at the big game.

That means the Eagles won't have the chance to join the ranks of historic Super Bowl upsets that have helped make the game a phenomenon. While we've had few double-digit spreads with a world championship on the line, it's worth noting that the underdog has wound up lifting the Vince Lombardi Trophy each of the last three times someone has been favored by 10 points or more.

What are the five biggest upsets in Super Bowl history? Thanks to some data from BetFirm, we know exactly who the least likely world champs are.

SUPER BOWL PREDICTIONS:

5. Super Bowl XXXII: Denver Broncos (11.5 point underdogs) 31, Green Bay Packers 24

Jan 25, 1998; San Diego, CA, USA; FILE PHOTO; Denver Broncos running back Terrell Davis (30) carries the ball past Green Bay Packers linebacker Bernardo Harris (55) and defensive tackle Santana Dotson (71) during Super Bowl XXXII at Qualcomm Stadium. The Broncos defeated the Packers 31-24. Mandatory Credit: Peter Brouillet-USA TODAY Sports

John Elway cemented his spot as a legend and made the Broncos something more than a Simpsons punchline by preventing Green Bay's bid to repeat as world champions. Well, Terrell Davis did, at least. The Hall of Fame running back scored three touchdowns and made sure the fact Elway threw for just 123 yards didn't matter in a seven-point victory.

4. Super Bowl IV: Kansas City Chiefs (12 point underdogs) 23, Minnesota Vikings 7

Jan 11, 1970; New Orleans, LA, USA; FILE PHOTO; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback (16) LEN DAWSON in action against the Minnesota Vikings during Super Bowl IV at Tulane Stadium. Dawson was named the games most valuable player pass 12 of 17 for 142 yards and a touchdown. The Chiefs defeated the Vikings 23-7 as the AFL won its second consecutive Super Bowl Title. Mandatory Credit: Tony Tomsic-USA TODAY NETWORK

The early Super Bowl spreads showed little regard for the upstart AFC, which is how two of the first four games wound up on this list (spoiler alert). Len Dawson delivered Kansas City's first world title, three years after losing the first Super Bowl but becoming a cigarette-smoking, Fresca-drinking icon in the process.

3. Super Bowl XLII: New York Giants (12-point underdogs) 17, New England Patriots 14

Feb 3, 2008; Glendale, AZ, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Jabar Gaffney (10) and wide receiver David Tyree (85) celebrate with the rest of the New York Giants after defeating the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII at the University of Phoenix Stadium. The New York Giants defeated the New England Patriots 17-14. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Patriots' dream of a 19-0 season died in Arizona thanks to Plaxico Burress's 13-yard touchdown catch with 35 seconds left in the game. Of course, that's not the catch folks remember most from Eli Manning's perfection-ruining day.

2. Super Bowl XXXVI: New England Patriots (14-point underdogs) 20, St. Louis Rams 17

Feb 3, 2002; New Orleans, LA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) in action against the St. Louis Rams during Super Bowl XXXVI at the Louisiana Superdome. The Patriots defeated the Rams 20-17. FILE PHOTO; Mandatory Credit: USA TODAY Sports

A scrappy second-year quarterback named Tom Brady took over for an injured Drew Bledsoe and led New England from a 1-3 start to the Super Bowl. In his way stood the Greatest Show on Turf. But Bill Belichick shut down the Rams' explosive offense and a dynasty began in Foxborough.

1. Super Bowl III: New York Jets (18-point underdogs) 16, Baltimore Colts 7

Jan 12, 1969; Miami, FL, USA: FILE PHOTO; New York Jets quarterback Joe Namath (12) against the Baltimore Colts during Super Bowl III at the Orange Bowl. The Jets defeated the Colts 16-7. Mandatory Credit: Dick Raphael-USA TODAY Sports

Joe Namath guaranteed it and whatever deal he made with the football gods has kept the Jets from returning to the Super Bowl since. This was the second-largest spread in the game's history behind Super Bowl XXIX's 18.5-point tilt in a game the favored San Francisco 49ers won easily over the San Diego Chargers.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: What are the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history?