Back to the hot seat? Jaguars, QB Trevor Lawrence putting Doug Pederson's job in jeopardy

One has to wonder if election fraud in the NFL might be legitimate, because it surely appears like that vote of confidence Doug Pederson just received might not count for much.

The head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars watched his team get wrecked 35-16 in London on Sunday by the Chicago Bears – just one day after Jags owner Shad Khan, in an exclusive interview with The Florida Times-Union, expressed confidence in Pederson and GM Trent Baalke.

“Every game is competitive. A loss is a loss, but (it's about) how you lose," Khan said. "To me, the three games we lost early in the season, it's disappointing, we could have won them."

Not so Sunday. After taking a 3-0 lead in the first quarter, Jacksonville scored seven of the game's next 42 points. When the dust settled, the Jaguars owned a league-worst 1-5 record.

It seems unlikely Pederson would become the second straight coach to be fired after losing in London – the New York Jets dropped Robert Saleh on Tuesday after owner Woody Johnson, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Kingdom, had seen enough – especially because the Jags will “host” the New England Patriots at Wembley Stadium next weekend.

Pederson said Sunday he still feels that he has Khan's backing. Yet asked to sum up his feelings in the aftermath of the latest defeat admitted he was, "Defeated, obviously. I feel for the players and the coaches."

Asked if the Jaguars are in must-win mode, Pederson replied: “I would say so. I would say everything here on out, quite frankly. ... I would say that, yeah, these games moving forward are just that.”

Jacksonville is a proper mess.

After looking like a solid bet to defend their 2022 AFC South crown last season, Pederson’s team has dropped 10 of its last 12. Jacksonville can forget about the playoffs. The offense is stagnant, the defense is at or near the bottom of the league in several metrics – notably against the pass after getting scorched anew Sunday – and all after Khan plowed hundreds of millions into the roster during the offseason.

And that’s really the main issue. The likes of Arik Armstead, Gabe Davis, Evan Engram, Darnell Savage, Mitch Morse and Ezra Cleveland haven’t made a difference. Pass rusher Josh Hines-Allen, now the NFL’s highest-paid defender (5 years, $141.3 million) not named Nick Bosa or Chris Jones, has been awfully quiet.

And then there’s Trevor Lawrence.

The quarterback, taken with the first overall draft pick three years ago and expected to make a Peyton Manning-adjacent impact in Duval County, was rewarded again for potential – not production – when Khan signed off on a five-year, $275 million extension in June. Rewarded to the tune of $55 million a year, Lawrence matched the Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow as the league’s best-compensated quarterback (until they were superseded by Dak Prescott, when the Dallas Cowboys gave him a four-year, $240 million pact prior to Week 1).

But it’s already fair to wonder if Lawrence was paid too much. And too soon.

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A Pro Bowler in 2022, when it seemed half the AFC’s quarterbacks begged out of the event, Lawrence has been decidedly average during his career. At best. Though Sunday’s stat line against Chicago wasn’t terrible (23-for-35, 234 yards, 2 TDs, INT), he consistently missed wide-open receivers and wasn’t able to sustain any momentum after a smooth and promising start that ended in a field goal and the Jags’ only lead.

That’s been a theme all season. Lawrence has been an inconsequential spoke in this offense but hardly the hub. The festering issue is exacerbated two times over because Khan not only minted him a year earlier (maybe two) before he really had to, but Lawrence was also completely outshone by this year’s No. 1 pick – Bears rookie Caleb Williams passing for 226 yards and four touchdowns in the same international showcase. Lawrence has one four-TD outing in three-plus NFL seasons. His career passer rating is 85.4. After a shaky start to his rookie year, Williams’ is already up to 92.5. Lawrence is 1-10 in his last 11 starts.

A few weeks ago, Lawrence admitted, “We suck right now.” But the problem could run much deeper. If the current pattern continues, his contract might loom as the league’s biggest hindrance outside of Cleveland. With $200 million guaranteed, he’s effectively tied to the organization through the 2027 season.

Which brings us back to Pederson.

As the league has repeatedly shown, it’s much easier to fire a coach than an enriched quarterback with an anchor of a deal. And it’s not like there’s a dearth of talent here given the presence of Hines-Allen, Engram, Travon Walker, Tyson Campbell, Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk and highly promising rookie wideout Brian Thomas Jr. But much like Saleh’s situation, the whole has been less than the sum of the parts under Pederson far too often – and the coach’s sometimes baffling game management hardly bolsters his case.

Khan bought the team in 2012 and, while he's proven to be one of the league's more patient bosses, has made two in-season coaching changes since – terminating Gus Bradley in 2016 and Urban Meyer, albeit under extenuating circumstances, in 2021.

Khan said before the season that "winning now is the expectation" and "this is the best team assembled by the Jacksonville Jaguars, ever. Best players, best coaches, but most importantly let's prove it by winning now.”

Then he doubled down Saturday, adding: "The coaches who are there, players who are there, they're coming here to win. And if they're not comfortable with that, they shouldn't be here.”

After getting blown out for the second time in four games – including 47-10 by the Buffalo Bills on "Monday Night Football" in Week 3 – no one should be experiencing more discomfort than Pederson.

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Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.

(This story has been updated to include new information.)

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Doug Pederson back to hot seat? Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence hurting coach