Aryna Sabalenka three-peat, Carlos Alcaraz ‘slam’ and Australian Open storylines

The Australian Open returns with Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka looking to defend their titles and a number of other storylines to watch out for in the opening grand slam of the tennis season.

Novak Djokovic’s partnership with Andy Murray has dominated the headlines and will be a subject of focus in Melbourne as the Serbian bids for a record-extending 11th title.

World No 1 Sinner makes his first defence of a grand slam while Sabalenka bids for a third title in a row on Rod Laver Arena. But Carlos Alcaraz and Coco Gauff will be leading the challenge.

Aryna Sabalenka eyes rare Australian Open three-peat

Ever since the intense drama of Aryna Sabalenka’s big breakthrough at the Australian Open in January 2023, the Belarusian has largely been dominant at the hard-court grand slams. The two-time defending champion in Melbourne lost just one match at the Australian Open and US Open in the past two years, and that was the Flushing Meadows final that she definitely should have won against Coco Gauff in 2023.

Overall, Sabalenka stands with a 27-1 combined record on the hard-court grand slams, as stressful, tense battles have developed into more comfortable progress. Last year, she won a second Australian Open title without dropping a set and overcoming Jessica Pegula to win the US Open despite a near-wobble will only imbue the new World No 1 with more confidence as she looks to maintain her dominant form.

As she begins her bid for a three-peat, a feat not achieved at the Australian Open since Martina Hingis won three in a row between 1997 and 1999, it is the American Gauff who perhaps stands as her closest rival for the title. Gauff saw a strong end to last season and defeated Sabalenka to win the WTA Finals in Saudi Arabia. A repeat of last year’s thrilling semi-final between Gauff and Sabalenka looks likely.

Carlos Alcaraz makes first bid at career slam

All eyes have been on the Australian Open ever since Alcaraz captured his first Roland Garros title at the French Open last June. In Melbourne, the 21-year-old Spaniard will have the first of three opportunities to break Rafael Nadal’s record and become the youngest man to achieve the career grand slam, a feat his legendary compatriot achieved at the age of 24.

Alcaraz is already the youngest man in history to win grand slams on the three different surfaces, and he added a second Wimbledon title to his French Open and US Open triumphs in July. The Australian Open is what is missing, with the opening grand slam of the year the tournament where Alcaraz has had the least success so far in his career.

Last year, Alcaraz went down to an inspired Alexander Zverev in the quarter-finals. This year, the draw puts him on a collision course with Novak Djokovic in the last eight, with Zverev a potential opponent in the semi-finals and Jannik Sinner on the other half of the draw. It’s as tough a draw as it gets, with even Britain’s Jack Draper a threat in the fourth round.

It’s safe to say a player of Alcaraz’s ability has a very good chance of winning the Australian Open at some point. But, with a new serving motion on display following the pre-season, that will invariably need some work, is it too early to shatter the career slam record?

Will there be a first-time men’s grand slam winner?

The 2024 tennis season signalled the end of the ‘Big Three’ era. For the first time since 2002, none of Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal won a grand slam, with Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz splitting the majors. While Djokovic’s performances in winning Olympic gold suggested he is not quite done yet, do Sinner and Alcaraz dominate the grand slams once again in 2025 - or will someone else get a look in at long last?

Alexander Zverev got even closer to a grand slam breakthrough last year, reaching the French Open final as well as the semi-finals of the Australian Open and quarter-finals of the US Open. If there is a first-time winner, the German’s consistency marks him as favourite among the non-grand slam champions, but the tough defeats continue to leave their mark: last year, Zverev was beaten by rival Daniil Medvedev from two sets up, and similarly blew the French Open final against Alcaraz. This year’s draw does him no favours, either.

Taylor Fritz, meanwhile, was impressive in his run to the US Open final, only for Sinner to find a different level. There is potential for a rematch in the semi-finals, and it will be a test of Fritz as the No 4 seed to see if he can reach that point. Three-time Australian Open finalist Daniil Medvedev struggled for form over the second half of last year and Fritz can display some authority against up-and-coming threats such as Ben Shelton and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Sinner, though, is a different calibre.

Can Iga Swiatek win the battle with herself?

Iga Swiatek remains the undisputed queen of clay after winning her third French Open title in a row in 2024. However, the five-time major champion lost her position at World No 1 to Aryna Sabalenka and under-performed at the other grand slams, particularly on the hard courts at the Australian Open and US Open.

Since then, Swiatek’s turbulent off-season was dominated by her one-month suspension for a doping violation, but it also brought a change of coach. The Australian Open will see her work with Wim Fissette, a former coach of Naomi Osaka and Kim Clijsters, and the first test will be improving her record at Melbourne Park - where the Polish star has lost in the fourth and third round in the last two years.

The good news for Swiatek, though, is that the draw has been fairly kind and Coco Gauff has landed on the same side as Sabalenka, as well as Qinwen Zheng and Jessica Pegula. There was a time not too long ago where the 23-year-old Swiatek was the favourite for every tournament she entered. The dynamic is different now, which may suit her, but Swiatek is likely to face a battle with herself as much as those who stand in front of her.

The contest for British No 1

Katie Boulter enjoyed a strong 2024 season by winning two titles and reaching another final on the WTA Tour to climb to a career-high ranking of 23. The 28-year-old is the highest British seed on the women’s draw, but improving her showings at the grand slams will be a big target ahead of 2025. Last season, Boulter did not progress past the second round of a major, but she did run into eventual finalists Qinwen Zheng last year at the Australian Open.

Emma Raducanu’s run to the Wimbledon fourth round and performances for Great Britain at the Billie Jean King Cup, where she outshone Boulter despite playing as the team’s No 2, suggests the 22-year-old can be confident of putting results together on the biggest stages. Raducanu’s fitness and ability to commit to a full schedule remains a concern. Either way, Raducanu and Boulter should look to push themselves by competing for the British No 1 position.

It can be a healthy rivalry but Raducanu has the harder draw and was the only British player to land a seeded opponent, in Ekaterina Alexandrova, with Amanda Amisimova a potential second round match-up. Boulter can be more confident of reaching the fourth round, starting with an opening match against Rebecca Marino. There are over 1,000 ranking points between Boulter and Raducanu, who is 60th despite last season’s disrupted schedule.