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Arizona Diamondbacks 2024 offseason preview: After barely missing the postseason, what's next for the Snakes?

Injuries and underperformance on the pitching staff stopped the Diamondbacks from making another playoff run

fred zinkie
Yahoo Fantasy Contributor
·6-min read
Corbin Carroll's second season with the Diamondbacks was not as magical as his first. (AP Photo/Aaron Gash)
Corbin Carroll's second season with the Diamondbacks was not as magical as his first. (AP Photo/Aaron Gash)

Let’s take a look at the season that was for the 2024 Arizona Diamondbacks, the questions the team must address this winter and the early outlook for 2025.

Read more: 2024 MLB offseason previews: What's next for the White Sox, Cubs, Giants and more?

The D-backs were an offensive juggernaut, scoring 44 more runs than any other team. Their 886 runs were the most scored by Arizona since it tallied 908 in 1999.

Ketel Marte was the lineup’s driving force, leading the team in home runs and OPS. He had plenty of help, including Joc Pederson, who produced 23 homers and a .908 OPS despite playing almost exclusively against right-handers. Eugenio Suárez also had a remarkable season in which he had 32 RBI by the end of June before catching fire and driving in 69 runs over the final three months. There was a similar story with Corbin Carroll, who logged a .635 OPS in the first half before recording 17 homers and a .919 OPS after the All-Star break.

As good as the offense was, Arizona missed the postseason because of a pitching staff that finished 27th in ERA, which included posting the worst ERA in baseball (5.34) in September. The blame for that was equally split between the rotation and the relief corps.

The disappointments were everywhere within the starting staff, as no one who started a single game finished the year with an ERA below 3.65. Zac Gallen (3.65 ERA) was acceptable, as was Merrill Kelly (4.03 ERA), albeit across just 13 starts. Brandon Pfaadt (4.71 ERA) and Ryne Nelson (4.24 ERA) were disappointing, while the March signing of Jordan Montgomery (6.23 ERA) was disastrous. Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez combined for just 23 starts.

Paul Sewald was supposed to anchor the bullpen, but he missed April due to an oblique injury and struggled in July to the point that he permanently lost the closer’s role. The five relievers who led Arizona in appearances produced solid results, but Justin Martinez was the only one who has a case to be labeled dominant.

The D-backs are in a tough spot, as their elite offense is losing significant pieces, while their subpar pitching staff returns most members. In an ideal world, most of the position players are retained and the pitching staff improves via bounce-back seasons.

The infield has two glaring holes to fill this offseason. First baseman Christian Walker has been one of the team’s most consistent players in recent years, but he is heading to free agency, and the club has a tough decision on a $15 million option on third baseman Suárez. Things are more settled elsewhere, with Gabriel Moreno behind the plate, Marte at second base and Geraldo Perdomo playing shortstop. Adrian Del Castillo fared well when filling in for Moreno this year (.893 OPS) and could be part of a catching tandem.

Arizona is set at the corner outfield spots with Carroll (left) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (right). Jake McCarthy took over as center fielder down the stretch and could fill that role in 2025. There is a mutual option on the contract of Randal Grichuk, who will likely hit free agency. Pederson is in the same boat, though there might be interest on both sides to bring him back. Finally, Pavin Smith will return as a reserve 1B/OF. He excelled in 2024 (.895 OPS) and could carve out a larger role.

There is a surprising amount of stability in the rotation, assuming that a few arms can recover from down years. Gallen will be the ace, and Montgomery will almost certainly exercise his player option for 2025. The club will exercise a $7 million option on Kelly’s contract, and Rodriguez remains under contract beyond 2025. Pfaadt still has plenty of potential as the fifth starter, and Nelson is ready to step into the rotation when necessary after making 25 starts this year.

General manager Mike Hazen will need to make some important decisions about the bullpen, as Sewald is heading to free agency and the group wasn’t good enough overall in 2024. The main question surrounds Martinez. If Hazen believes he is ready to be the full-time closer on a contending team, the team can save some money by adding depth to the relief corps. If not, the wallet will need to be opened for an experienced closer.

The progress of some key members of Arizona’s prospect pool was slowed by injuries in 2024, and this is now regarded as an average group at best.

The sixth overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, Jordan Lawlar is still considered one of baseball’s best prospects, despite missing most of 2024 due to a series of injuries. The 22-year-old can do it all offensively, including reaching base often, hitting for power and stealing bases. He played in 14 games with the D-backs in 2023 and will challenge Perdomo for the starting shortstop job in spring training.

Druw Jones, the second overall pick in the 2022 draft, is the other jewel of Arizona’s farm system. The 20-year-old has terrific long-term potential and will eventually be the team’s center fielder, but he has yet to reach Double-A and is most likely to make his D-backs debut in 2026.

Yilber Diaz and Yu-Min Lin are not considered high-end prospects but should make starts for the D-backs in 2025. Diaz has already thrown 28 1/3 major-league innings and will be one of the top candidates to fill in when veterans suffer injuries next season. Lin is a bit further behind, having pitched only briefly in Triple-A, but he could be an option by next summer.

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Winning the NL West feels overly optimistic for Arizona, which hasn’t accomplished that feat since 2011. After all, the Dodgers have had a stranglehold on this division for many years, and the Padres are formidable contenders as well.

But qualifying for the postseason next year is a reasonable goal, with the hope that the Diamondbacks can repeat their 2023 Cinderella story, when everything clicked in October and they advanced to the World Series.

Although Marte was the team’s best player this year, it’s Carroll who will be the first Arizona player selected in 2025 fantasy baseball drafts. The 24-year-old will be a first-round draft pick in some leagues, thanks to his ability to post sizable totals in home runs, stolen bases and runs scored. Marte will be selected in the range of Rounds 4-6.

Gallen will be the first D-backs pitcher off the board, likely in the range of Rounds 5-7. Martinez, Kelly and Suárez will all be fine middle-round options. Walker will be picked in the range of Rounds 8-10, whether he returns to Arizona or signs elsewhere.