A tipster's guide to round 23 of the AFL

Hasn’t the year flown by! The final round of the 2015 home and away season is already upon us and that can mean only one thing: finals footy is here. The top eight has already been finalised with only jostling for home finals left at stake.

Two things surprised us here at Sportsbet last week. Geelong failing to turn up on Friday night against Collingwood ended their hopes of September action, while Adelaide, their rivals for the eight, shocked nearly everyone by belting premiership hopefuls West Coast.

In the other big game of the round, the Doggies finally showed that they have what it takes to beat a team in the eight, by dismantling a Kangaroos side which had previously been running hot.

Here’s our take on round 23.

Richmond vs North Melbourne

As the only game between two top eight sides in round 23, this one looms as the standout fixture of the week. The Kangaroos will be looking to respond after a disappointing loss to the Doggies last week and a win here will be do wonders for their confidence heading into finals.

The Tigers on the other hand, still have a shot at making the top four and will be doing everything in their power to make that happen. North Melbourne head into the clash having won their last five matches against Richmond and also won the reverse fixture in round six. Despite the Tigers having more to play for, the Kangaroos at $4.00 represent fantastic value.

Geelong vs Adelaide

Last week this game was shaping up as a blockbuster battle for the eight. Geelong stepped all over that narrative with an insipid display against the Pies last week, going down by 48-points, while Adelaide smashed West Coast by 10 goals.

With form on their side and a home final to play for, the Crows at $1.50 look set to get the job done.

Brisbane vs Western Bulldogs

Brisbane has a chance to drag themselves off the foot of the table with a win at home here. Despite having a good record against the Western Bulldogs at the Gabba, this one looks tough. The Doggies themselves are full of confidence, amplified by a good win against North at the weekend, and have a chance at a home final if other results go their way. At $1.20, the Bulldogs should have too much for the Lions.

Port Adelaide vs Fremantle

It’s a case of too little too late for Port Adelaide this season. In the last several weeks they’ve come home with a wet sail and showed everyone what we all knew they were capable of. The Dockers, on the other hand, have taken out the minor premiership but look to be the least convincing side to do so in recent memory.

With Fremantle also having nothing to play for here, they may well look to rest a few players and that should give the Power, at $1.11, every chance of taking this one out.

Hawthorn vs Carlton

It’s been a forgettable year for the Blues, with things declining further on the weekend after an 81-point loss to the Giants. The year can’t wrap up soon enough for them. Hawthorn, despite not taking out the minor premiership as most predicted earlier in the year, still look the best side when they’re in full flight and will be looking to tune up here for a tilt at three flags in a row. At $1.01, the Hawks should enjoy a nice run out against those Navy Blue witch’s hats.

Sydney vs Gold Coast

Coming off the back of a couple of large wins, the Swans will be hoping to further sharpen up for what will inevitably be a tough game in the west against Fremantle next week. Buddy Franklin was subbed early against the Saints last round and Sydney will be hoping to get more precious miles into his legs here before finals.

Gold Coast will be bitterly disappointed with their performance this season after making a bit of headway last year and will want to finish the season with a good showing. Sydney has way too much though and at $1.04 should get the job done without too much trouble.

West Coast vs St Kilda

West Coast raised more than a few eyebrows last week when they were taken apart by Adelaide. The Eagles have put in some mightily impressive performances in the second half of the year and a win here would wrap up second spot and a home final. The Saints suffered their biggest loss of the year last week against Sydney and look to have run out steam.

West Coast has the perfect chance to bounce back before finals here and could very well give the 51.5-point line a workout.

Melbourne vs GWS

You almost have to admire Melbourne for their absolute refusal to improve. They were awful against Fremantle last week, awful against Carlton the week before and, in all likelihood, will be awful here too. The Giants have a different song to sing this year and have made great progress despite narrowly missing their first ever ticket to the big show. This poses as a great opportunity to finish the year off with a bang and they may well do so, with the 18.5-point line looking in serious danger.

Collingwood vs Essendon

After five rounds the Pies were sitting pretty in second place and looking very impressive indeed. Since then, they’ve overseen a steady decline which has seen them slip all the way out of the eight and miss finals for the second year running. Despite this, they’ve had some good wins mixed in with their failures as last round’s 48-point defeat of Geelong highlights.

The Bombers have had a more than forgettable year, culminating in the sacking of head coach and favourite son, James Hird. Essendon have been seeking the finish line for weeks and finally have it in their grasp. At $1.25, Collingwood should add the final nail to the coffin in a year Bombers fans would sooner forget.

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