A tipster's guide to round 20 of the AFL

Can you smell that? It’s finals footy and it’s just around the corner!

The top eight are really taking shape, with only a couple of teams outside that can realistically challenge for a spot.

Last week saw the Hawks remind everyone that they’re still flag favourites, while Collingwood broke their losing streak against the old enemy and Gold Coast refused the wooden spoon. Here’s the good oil on Round 20

Sydney v Collingwood

After being comfortably outgunned by Geelong on the weekend, Sydney has now lost three of their last four. Not exactly instilling fear in their finals opposition, they’ll want to get a few good wins under their belt in the coming weeks.

The Pies, on the other hand, finally racked up a win after their biggest losing streak since 1999 and will be looking to extend their unbelievable run against the Swans - which currently stands at 13 wins from the last 15 matches. At $1.33, the Swans should just do enough and get back to winning ways.

Essendon v Adelaide

The Crows were impressive last week against the in-form Tigers and now sit outside the eight by the narrowest of margins. They will certainly fancy their chances this week against an Essendon side that have now lost nine of their last 10 games and clearly look focused on 2016. With that in mind, the Crows should give the 27.5-point a real shake.

North Melbourne v St Kilda

North are in fine form at the moment. After racking up five on the bounce, they now find themselves in sixth spot. The Saints, on the other hand, seem to be running short of that youthful exuberance that has carried them further than most expected this year. The Kangaroos are scoring freely right now and at $1.22, should be too hot to handle for St. Kilda.

Port Adelaide v GWS

Port have been the disappointment of the season for many and this was only confirmed when the doggies gave them a 10 goal hiding last week. With the finals now out of the picture, the Power are left to fight for pride. The Giants, on the other hand, are in with a big shout for their first ever taste of September action and should be fired right up. At $2.90, the Giants represent outstanding value and should just edge it.

Geelong v Hawthorn

The Cats have put a good sequence of footy together leading into finals, having now won four in a row including a good win against Sydney last round. They’ll be keen to keep racking up the wins, with the Crows and Giants breathing down their neck for a spot in the eight.

The Hawks returned to winning ways last week in a tough encounter away to West Coast after reminding us all they are fallible the week prior by losing to the Tigers. Despite the vast experience the Cats have successfully drawn on recently, further enhanced by the return of Stevie J, the Hawks at $1.25 should have too much in what shapes up as a good game.

Brisbane v Carlton

The second battle of the cellar-dwellers in as many weeks, both Brisbane and Carlton will be desperate to avoid defeat in what will likely determine who receives the wooden spoon. Both teams are void of confidence and any semblance of form after losing to their respective arch rivals last round. In what looms as the least appetising match of the year, the Lions at 1.85 should sneak over the line due to their home ground advantage.

Richmond v Gold Coast

Have the wheels fallen off at Tigerland? Perhaps that’s a bit harsh, but last week’s loss to the Crows would surely have come as a huge blow considering their good form. Gold Coast are on the up and up (albeit too late) after knocking off rivals Brisbane last week, following on from their surprise draw against the high flying Eagles a week earlier.

Recent games between these two have been very close and current form suggests this could again be the case. With a lot more at stake however, Richmond at $1.18 should come out on top.

Western Bulldogs v Melbourne

The Doggies are running hot at the moment after dishing out a couple of absolute floggings in the last two rounds. If they’re not quite contenders for the flag this year, they’re certainly not far off. The Demons gave a good account of themselves last week against a good North outfit and will be hoping for another solid showing here. It’s hard to go past the Dogs though, and they look set to give the 27.5-point line a work out.

Fremantle v West Coast

Best. Derby. Ever. First versus second. There’s never been a western derby during the home and away season with this significance. The Dockers are getting back to their best form while the Eagles appear to be stuttering a little bit at the final hurdle. Although West Coast have improved since their loss to Fremantle in round three, the Dockers at $1.55 should earn bragging rights this time around.

Keep up to date on all AFL betting markets at Sportsbet.com.au.