32 things we learned in NFL Week 16: Second-guessing 'expert' thinking on top teams

The 32 things we learned from Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season:

1. It's a tale as old as time (or, at least, 105 years): Just when you think you've got the NFL figured out, a day like Sunday comes along and forces a mass recalibration of the landscape ... and "expert" thinking. Example: Who's the best team? A week after beating the Detroit Lions, the AFC East champion Buffalo Bills nearly lost – at home – to the New England Patriots.

2. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs – still very much alive to become the first team to achieve a Super Bowl three-peat – are the league's only 14-win team ... even though QB Patrick Mahomes is battered and rarely able to engineer a convincing win.

3. As for the Lions? Just when you thought they might have suffered one key injury too many, they literally toy with their food while steamrolling the Chicago Bears. Detroit very much remains in the driver's seat for the No. 1 seed and certainly benefited from the Philadelphia Eagles' loss Sunday.

4. As for Philly? The Eagles would have to lose their final two games – and the Washington Commanders would have to win out – for the NFC East crown to change hands going into the playoffs.

5. However the Eagles face the prospect of having to play QB3 Tanner McKee if starter Jalen Hurts doesn't clear concussion protocol and backup Kenny Pickett's tender ribs prove overly problematic.

6. Hurts' absence for most of Sunday's loss to Washington is also another data point as to why the MVP award has become synonymous with quarterbacks. Even with RB Saquon Barkley rushing for 150 yards and a pair of TDs, he couldn't carry Philadelphia past the Commanders.

7. However with a league-best 1,838 rushing yards, Barkley now needs 268 over the final two weeks to eclipse Hall of Famer Eric Dickerson's single-season record (2,105 yards during a 16-game season in 1984).

8. Barkley also became the first player ever with four rushing TDs covering at least 65 yards in a single season. Yet he really missed an opportunity to cut the Dickerson deficit Sunday, managing only 41 yards over the final three quarters after posting 109 in the first.

9. However, speaking of individual awards, Commanders QB Jayden Daniels probably locked up the Offensive Rookie of the Year hardware after passing for 258 yards and five TDs, including the game-winner with 6 seconds left to play in Washington's 36-33 triumph. Daniels also rushed for a team-high 81 yards.

10. The last Washington player to pass for five TDs? Try QB Mark Rypien ... for the 1991 team, the last to bring this franchise a Lombardi Trophy.

11. Daniels' heroics kept the Commanders alive in the pursuit of the NFC East crown and have certainly helped him outshine Denver Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix, who's in the midst of a middling December after playing so well in November.

12. The presumed 2024 MVP, Buffalo's Josh Allen, notched his 75th career win Sunday (barely) and needs one more to set the record for the most in a quarterback's first seven seasons. (It's important to note that Mahomes and Tom Brady both basically redshirted their rookie seasons.)

13. Back to the MVP award and the underappreciated Minnesota Vikings ... but how about a little love for QB Sam Darnold? Only Mahomes has led his team to more wins this season. If Darnold can notch two more, the Vikes get home-field advantage. The Vikings!

14. Regardless, league awards – and even much-deserved respect amid his career revival – will doubtless continue to elude Darnold. But you can bet the money won't for a man who might pull down more than any other pending free agent in 2025.

15. Some real NFL blue bloods won't be vying for the Lombardi Trophy this season, the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers eliminated from the playoff picture Sunday in the aftermath of Washington's comeback.

16. A few non-blue bloods will also be left by the wayside, the New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals also getting their walking papers Sunday.

17. The Cincinnati Bengals beat the Cleveland Browns 24-6 and are probably the team no one else in the AFC field wants to sneak into the bracket. QB Joe Burrow extended his franchise record with this 39th TD pass Sunday, while WR Ja'Marr Chase became the Bengals' first-ever 1,500-yard receiver.

18. Burrow is also the first player in league history to post seven straight games with at least 250 yards and three TDs through the air.

19. Browns DE Myles Garrett became the 45th NFL player since 1982 (when sacks became an official statistic) with 100 in his career after bagging Burrow on Sunday.

20. Garrett also joined legendary Hall of Famer Lawrence Taylor as the only players with at least 12 sacks in five consecutive seasons and became the first player to reach the century mark before turning 29.

21. However, New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers needed more than his lone TD pass Sunday to get to 500 for his career ... and the NYJ certainly needed it (and more) in a 19-9 loss to the NFC West-leading Los Angeles Rams.

22. But one's misfortune is another man's – well, how about a salute to Rams TE Tyler Higbee, who caught what proved to be the game-winning TD against the Jets in his 2024 debut. It's been nearly a year since Higbee, who also had offseason shoulder surgery, was waylaid by a knee injury in a playoff game that resulted in tears to his ACL, MCL and meniscus.

23. Somehow, the Jets never punted despite scoring only nine points. (How you ask? How about a pair of turnovers, a missed field goal and three failed fourth-down conversions.)

24. The Miami Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa became the fourth quarterback in franchise history to throw 100 regular-season TD passes.

25. Doesn't much matter who's playing quarterback when your defense generates three sacks and three turnovers (including a pair of pick-sixes) in a 34-7 drubbing.

26. But congratulations nevertheless to Atlanta Falcons rookie QB Michael Penix Jr., who, despite modest individual numbers (202 yards passing, INT, 3 yards rushing), "won" his starting debut against the hapless New York Giants on Sunday after replacing veteran Kirk Cousins earlier in the week.

27. And congratulations, too, to the Giants, who had avoided a 10-game losing streak ... until their 100th NFL season. They also now have the inside track to the No. 1 overall pick of the 2025 draft.

28. But shoutout to Big Blue's Malik Nabers, who has 97 receptions in his rookie season ... and, don't forget, he missed two games.

29. Chicago rookie QB Caleb Williams needs 729 passing yards over the final two weeks to become the first Bears player to reach 4,000 in a season.

30. And then there's the Las Vegas Raiders' Brock Bowers, who's basically having the best statistical season ever for a rookie tight end (101 catches for 1,067 yards). He needs 10 more yards in the next two games for the most ever by a rookie at his position.

31. Happy Holidays to CBS' No. 1 broadcast team of Jim Nantz and Tony Romo. Some broadcast quirks this week relegated you gents to covering 49ers-Dolphins, while FOX featured Steelers-Ravens (normally a CBS game) on Saturday afternoon. But trust me, fellas, you got to enjoy much better weather than Burkhardt and Brady had in Charm City.

32. Also, Happy Holidays to the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers and Texans. You've got to feel for the players and staffs of these teams, which are all playing three games over an 11-day span, simply so the league can stage a Christmas doubleheader on Wednesday. All were back at practice Sunday after playing on Saturday afternoon. Very tough ask of these clubs during the Holiday season – especially so given Baltimore and Kansas City both played on Christmas last year as well ... but apparently that Netflix streaming money going into the revenue pie makes the inconvenience sufficiently worth it for the greater good.

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Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL Week 16 takeaways: Jalen Hurts' injury, second-guessing experts