Advertisement

2025 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Preview: Yes, you can be patient in drafts

dalton del don
Fantasy analyst
·8-min read

When evaluating pitchers, it’s best to ignore ERA and instead focus on skills (K-BB%, CSW), as outside factors frequently lead to misleading results. Moreover, you should target pitchers in favorable situations (run support, Park Factors). As for the 2025 season, fantasy managers should be able to get away with remaining relatively patient when drafting SPs.

[Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league for the 2025 MLB season]

The days of 220+ innings and 300+ strikeouts may be gone, making SPs less likely to be worth first-round fantasy picks (with all due respect to Tarik Skubal). OOPSY projects just four pitchers to reach 200 innings in 2025, with none breaking 207.0. Six years ago Gerrit Cole recorded 326 strikeouts and was among eight pitchers to have more than 240 punchouts. No pitcher is projected to have more than 240 Ks in 2025.

If you prefer THE BAT’s projections, it has the season leader in innings at just 186.0 and the leader in Ks at only 224. In an era when fewer and fewer pitchers are throwing 200+ innings, fantasy managers can be happy with 160.

Pitching has always been taxing on the body, and that’s become even truer with hurlers throwing harder than ever. Because of the higher volatility with injuries and the way stats like ERA (and wins) are beyond a pitcher’s control, perceived performance can greatly fluctuate year to year — meaning SP fantasy ranks often don’t align with their true skills. Starting pitcher rankings also frequently look much different than the year before, especially compared to other positions. Drafters can take advantage of this by targeting multiple SPs in the middle of drafts who possess the upside to jump multiple rounds in 2026.

[Position Previews: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP]

Starting pitching remains as important as ever to winning fantasy baseball, and the position presents a strong opportunity to gain value (and beat ADP) in drafts.

deGrom hasn’t reached 100.0 innings pitched since 2019 and is 36 years old, so he carries obvious risk with his services costing a top-50 pick. After continuously missing time with arm troubles, deGrom finally underwent (a second) Tommy John surgery in June 2023. His velocity was a bit down after returning late last season, but the results remained dominant; deGrom’s 29.5 K-BB% and 33.1% CSW would have comfortably led the league. That came in a tiny sample, but deGrom figures to be fully recovered even more so in 2025.

Just like Chris Sale last season, deGrom is a former ace who’s older but coming off his first normal offseason in years. DeGrom owns a 2.07 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP and a 30.5 K-BB% since 2018, which all lead MLB starters by a wide margin. And his arm might be healthier now than during a big stretch of that span. DeGrom can still make a major impact on your ratios even if he’s limited to 100 innings, and he can win the Cy Young if he reaches 175.

Schwellenbach was a second-round draft pick, but he’s pitched like a top prospect since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2022. He experienced a big jump in innings last year, but Schwellenbach was especially impressive over the second half, when he posted a 2.73 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP with a 23.3 K-BB% that would’ve ranked fifth on the season. Schwellenbach offers six different pitches and owned a Chase% and BB% in the top five percentiles last season.

Schwellenbach will also benefit from pitching for the Braves for several reasons; Atlanta starters recorded 29% more wins than Detroit’s SPs last season despite both staffs finishing with similar ERAs (3.58 vs. 3.69). The Braves offense comically underperformed and/or got injured last season, so run support should be even greater.

Schwellenbach is the SP29 in early “expert consensus ranks,” but he’s a top-15 starter on my board.

Pfaadt’s 4.71 ERA last season ranked bottom-five among qualified starters, but it also came with a 3.65 SIERA that ranked No. 21 — ahead of new teammate, Corbin Burnes. Only one qualified starting pitcher owned a lower LOB% (64.5) than Pfaadt last year, and that should regress in 2025. Pfaadt started to pitch like an ace after the All-Star break, although his bloated 5.93 ERA in the second half certainly doesn’t show it (thanks to a .368 BABIP that led the league by a mile).

Pfaadt’s 22.1 K-BB% after the All-Star break would’ve ranked sixth-best among starters for the season. His 29.4% CSW ranked top 15 in the second half, one spot behind Paul Skenes. Chase Field remains a slightly favorable hitter’s park, but it’s decreased homers by 14% over the last three seasons (the fifth-most). The Diamondbacks may be due for some regression, but their offense scored 40+ more runs than the next-best team last year.

Pfaadt is the SP57 in ECR, but he’s a top-40 SP on my board.

Lodolo was 8-2 with a 2.76 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP and a 20.5 K-BB% that ranked top 20 among starters before suffering a finger injury during his 12th start of the season last year. He posted a 7.38 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over his final 50.0 innings after returning, when the injury still affected his ability to grip his curveball (even after the blister healed). Lodolo’s curveball suffered a dramatic decrease in vertical break as a result.

Lodolo hasn’t proven he can stay healthy, but none of his injuries have involved his arm, and his finger should be back to 100%. Great American Ballpark is without question a hurdle, but his LOB% should regress, and this is a former top-10 pick with elite stuff (especially when he can properly grip the baseball). Lodolo’s career 4.52 ERA comes with a 3.53 SIERA. He matched Paul Skenes’ CSW last year while pitching injured.

Lodolo is the SP67 in ECR, but he has top-20 starter upside. Go get him.

Arrighetti’s 4.53 ERA was accompanied by a 3.93 SIERA as a rookie last season. He suffered a few blowup outings, but Arrighetti also struck out 11 or more batters three times over a five-start stretch in August. He posted a 3.18 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and the seventh-best CSW (just behind Tarik Skubal) after the All-Star break. Helped by elite extension, Arrighetti had four different pitches induce a 10%+ SwStr%.

Arrighetti is laughably the SP69 in early ECR, but he’s a top-50 starter on my board (with upside for more).

Sasaki possesses a ton of fantasy upside with the ability to reach 100 mph while joining a Dodgers team that will help rack up wins. But fantasy managers need to be aware of the seemingly precarious health of his arm. Sasaki has said that a doctor recommended Tommy John surgery before his first season with Chiba Lotte. Rest may have solved the problem that he later attributed to his shoulder, but it’s also possible Sasaki will be more open to surgery now that he’s locked in with Los Angeles.

Sasaki has never reached 130.0 innings during his career, so his workload will be limited, at minimum. While Sasaki’s numbers remained incredibly strong, his K/BB rate fell from 7.94 in 2022 to 4.03 during his final year in Japan. Sasaki enters with too many unknowns to be a near top-100 pick.

Greene had an unlucky ERA over his first two seasons in the league, but he had an extremely fortunate one in 2024. Greene’s 2.75 ERA would’ve ranked fourth-best among qualified pitchers (he was just 10 innings short), but his 3.81 SIERA would’ve ranked 30th.

Greene’s .237 BABIP would’ve been the third-lowest among qualified starters, and his 80.5% LOB would’ve been the fourth-highest. Greene’s 6.9% HR/FB rate would’ve ranked as the second-lowest, and he entered last season with a 15.2% career mark. Great American Ballpark has increased home runs an MLB-high 28% over the last three seasons, and it also typically sports one of the league’s highest BABIPs. Greene was able to return for two starts at the end of last season, but he was sidelined in August with right elbow soreness.

Greene is an exciting young pitcher with legit stuff, but it’s tough throwing half his games in such a terrific hitter’s park. Greene’s ADP is inflated thanks to some misleading stats last season, so he’s a draft-day fade.

  • 1) Tarik Skubal

  • 2) Paul Skenes

  • 3) Jacob deGrom

  • 4) Garrett Crochet

  • 5) Zack Wheeler

  • 6) Logan Gilbert

  • 7) Chris Sale

  • 8) Blake Snell

  • 9) Corbin Burnes

  • 10) Yoshinobu Yamamoto

  • 11) Dylan Cease

  • 12) Cole Ragans

  • 13) Michael King

  • 14) Gerrit Cole

  • 15) Spencer Schwellenbach

Yahoo consensus starting pitcher rankings