10 March Madness tips for filling out your women’s tournament bracket
The ultimate separator in sports is consistency, and March Madness is perhaps the ultimate example of how that leads to success. Small sample sizes, clashing styles and a lower level of experience on a national stage lead to some of the most brutally beautiful moments of heartbreak and grandeur that sports can provide.
How can you best build and prepare your bracket for success despite the madness March will throw your way? I have 10 tips for yo to follow as you fill out your bracket. Download one here.
1. Have more than one
The first and most important tip: You can never have too many! As much as we try to reduce the game and understand it through advanced metrics, March throws so much of that out the door. Madness brings a simmer up to a boil in a matter of moments — a few 3s here, a clutch turnover there.
The first year I filled out a March Madness bracket, I religiously watched games for every team in the tournament for the whole year. I knew the players, the styles, the games … and my mom selected teams strictly off which logos she liked and won our bracket challenge! Make more than one.
2. Be unorthodox
Somewhat along those same lines, when building out a bracket, there needs to be an element of bucking the trends. Playing off of every situation you think will happen is a great recipe for an early exit in your bracket pool. There will be upsets!
3. Pick the right Cinderellas
How can you pick the right ones?
This is where doing your research matters most. Who gave top-seeded teams difficult games in nonconference meetings? Who plays a funky style that’s harder to solve?
Take a team like Middle Tennessee from last year, a No. 11 seed in 2024 that won its first-round game. The Blue Raiders provided difficulty for Michigan and Princeton early in the season and beat Tennessee.
With a 6-foot-6 center that blocked shots at a high level, and one of the best 3-point shooting offenses in the country, Middle Tennessee was a formidable threat for a Louisville team without a sizable low post player.
4. Who’s peaking?
In that same vein, Louisville was a team that I was a little unsure of heading into last season’s Big Dance. The Cardinals went 6-6 from the start of February through the end of their run in the ACC tournament, where they went out in the second game.
That’s not to diminish Louisville’s solid season but to acknowledge that momentum headed into the NCAA Tournament matters. It’s not often we see teams flip a switch and go on a run after a month of inconsistent play to close the regular season.
Take Ohio State from last season as well, a No. 2 seed who lost in the second round to Duke. The Buckeyes dropped the last game of their regular season and went out during the first game of the Big Ten tournament in disappointing fashion. The Buckeyes were booted from the NCAA Tournament in the second round.
Conversely, look at a team like NC State last season. The Wolfpack dropped back-to-back games in mid-February to UNC and Duke, but then went on to play wire-to-wire in the ACC championship game. The Wolfpack captured their momentum and advanced to the Final Four.
5. Nail the Final Four
The most important thing you can do when making your picks is to get it right at the end. Teams that go the furthest in March have the largest impact on your bracket. If you’re going to get a pick wrong, it’s better to get it wrong when it only hurts you in the first round.
6. Be wary of injuries
While this is an unfortunate part of the game and the bracket itself, it’s key to acknowledge and note the potential that recent injuries can have on teams. Take Virginia Tech last season, who wound up as a No. 4 seed.
That team was incredibly good, and the total body of work earned them that seed. But playing without program stalwart Liz Kitley made it difficult for the Hokies to play up to form. Fellow No. 4 seed, Kansas State, was in a similar position, having missed Ayoka Lee for much of Big 12 play and working to reintegrate her to the lineup near the end of the season. The Wildcats also lost in the second round as did the Hokies, the only No. 4 seeds that didn’t advance past the first weekend of play.
Should you take that into consideration as Lee returns from injury for this season’s tournament? How will you factor in LSU’s injuries?
7. Dive into play styles
Speaking of last year’s Virginia Tech team, it was a popular bracket pick for an upset in the first round against Marshall in the No. 4-No. 13 game. The Hokies handled Marshall comfortably in that game.
Though it made sense on paper that a team that forced a ton of turnovers and shot well from deep could get hot, picking the Herd for those reasons was a misevaluation of Virginia Tech.
Georgia Amoore was elite at handling pressing defenses last season (and this year at Kentucky), and the Herd pressed more last year than any other team in the country.
Understanding what works against various team and player styles can help you pick your upsets.
8. Bet on guard play
Elite post players are a cheat code in college basketball and define many of the best teams in the game. Obviously, UCLA center Lauren Betts will be a focal point in this season’s tournament.
However, when it comes to surviving and advancing, elite guards are the separator when sample size goes out the window.
Shotmaking and the ability to create are huge, but look at teams with elite decision-making guards. Who consistently makes good things happen when faced with pressure? Harmoni Turner and the Harvard Crimson are ready to prove this case.
9. Be careful with upsets past the first weekend
Thirteen of the 16 host teams advanced to the Sweet Sixteen in 2024. Of the three teams that wound up in the second weekend that weren’t No. 4 seeds or higher, two were No. 5 seeds (Baylor and Colorado) and the final team was No. 7 seed Duke.
Twelve of 16 host teams advanced in 2023, and the lowest-seeded team to reach the Sweet Sixteen was No. 8 seed Ole Miss.
Upsets happen, but largely in the first round. Be sure to pick your brackets accordingly.
10. Believe in experience
It may seem rather straightforward, but experience is invaluable. It’s easy to get caught up in the star power of young teams, but it’s important for those teams to be balanced out by some savvy veterans. The top four players in minutes who competed in last year’s national championship game had been in college for three or more seasons. LSU’s 2023 title team had three starters who had individually played in more than 100 college games before the NCAA Tournament even started. Talent is undeniable, but experience is everything in March.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
Women's College Basketball, Sports Betting, Women's NCAA Tournament
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