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Damaging winds, rain to hit one state

Max temperature - The chance of above median max temperature for October to December. Picture: BOM
The chance of above median max temperatures for October to December. Picture: BOM

Damaging winds and wild weather will lash parts of the country this weekend, with showery and cold conditions beginning in the east and moving west.

Cold fronts are returning to southern parts of the country this week, bringing showery and cold conditions to Perth on Father’s Day.

BOM senior meteorologist Dean Narramore told NCA NewsWire the fronts will impact SA, Tasmania, Victoria and southern parts of NSW over the next week.

“Those areas will see showers, gusty winds and cooler temperatures, while Northern Australia will return to that hot dry weather with elevated fire dangers,” he said.

Perth is the first to be hit just 48 hours after experiencing a warm 29C day, with severe weather warnings issued across the city.

WINDY WEATHER
Wild and cold weather is set to batter Perth. Picture: NCA NewsWire / David Crosling

The cold front will strengthen as it moves across WA overnight and into early SUnday morning.

“Strong to locally damaging wind gusts are possible with the front and for a few hours after its passage, particularly with squally shower activity,” the BOM said of Perth’s weather.

“Gusty westerly winds with isolated damaging wind gusts of around 90 to 100km/h are possible over the coast and adjacent inland between Jurien Bay and Bunbury, including Perth, from late this evening into the early hours of Sunday morning.”

Sydney will enjoy relatively clear skies and maximum temperatures in the low 20s over the next week, while Melbourne and Adelaide will likely experience showers on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday.

Brisbane will experience some cloud cover and temperatures from 14C to 30C, peaking on Tuesday.

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A surfer takes on the waves at Bondi on a cloudy August day during the warmest Australian winter on record. Picture: NCA NewsWire / David Swift

Maximum temperatures in Perth will reach 23C while the city is set to weather showers through to Tuesday.

Hobart will be cloudy with possible showers on Tuesday and again towards the end of the week, while Canberra will enjoy mostly sunny skies with minimum temperatures as low as -1C.

Darwin will be sunny every day with maximum temperatures ranging from 33C to 35C.

RECORD WARM SPRING

The news comes after Australia recorded its hottest winter ever, with spring also shaping up to be warmer and drier than normal.

A likely El Nino and “record warm oceans globally” will impact the months ahead, with above median maximum temperatures very likely for most of the country.

This comes after the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) recorded the warmest national mean temperature since observations began in 1910, 1.53 C above the 1961-90 average.

WINTER 2023

Queensland, NSW and Tasmania recorded their warmest winters on record at 2.23 C, 1.72 C and 1.30 C above average respectively.

Victoria and SA experienced their second-warmest winters ever while the season was in the top 10 hottest on record for both the Northern Territory and Western Australia.

Mean daily maximum temperatures over winter 2023. Picture: BOM
Mean daily maximum temperatures over winter 2023. Picture: BOM

Rainfall was more than 4 per cent below average across the country except for northern parts of the Northern Territory and Queensland which were wetter than normal.

Many stations had their highest mean maximum temperature for winter on record.

Mr Narramore said the warmer conditions were caused by a combination of two separate weather events.

“There were large high pressure systems bringing in sunny days as well as lack of cold fronts across southern Australia which normally bring the wintry conditions,” he said.

“Both worked together to bring us our warmest winter on record.”

In the context of winter temperatures, this could mean days that would typically be 13C were instead 14C or 15C.

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The dry warm weather patterns observed over winter are set to continue into spring. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Naomi Jellicoe

While El Nino and La Nina affect weather across northern and eastern parts of the country from late spring into summer, winter is more impacted by the Indian Ocean Dipole.

“The Indian Ocean Dipole is the El Nino/La Nina of the Indian Ocean,” Mr Narramore said.

“El Nino/La Nina are instead in the Pacific Ocean — it’s a similar pattern.”

SPRING 2023

The current warm dry pattern affecting most of the country will likely continue throughout spring, with there being a 70 per cent chance of an El Nino developing.

“For spring much of the country will be looking at below average rainfall and above average temperatures,” Mr Narramore said.

Max temperature - The chance of above median max temperature for September. Picture: BOM
The chance of above median max temperatures for September. Picture: BOM

“Those two combined mean we’ll see a hotter, drier spring.”

The meteorologist said these conditions will be driven by a likely positive Indian Ocean Dipole as well as the potentially developing El Nino.

“The last three springs have been cool and wet due to La Nina,” he said.

“We’ve been in a cooler weather phase and now we’re moving into its reverse, with those hot and dry conditions.”

Average spring temperatures can hit up to 40C in some parts of the country, such as inland areas in NSW and WA.

Sydney averages 20-24C across September to November while Alice Springs, for example, averages 30-34C.

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The meteorologist said it was ‘rare’ to experience an El Nino straight after a La Nina event. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Joel Carrett
Max temperature - The chance of above median max temperature for October to December. Picture: BOM
The chance of above median max temperatures for October to December. Picture: BOM

“The heat will keep building by the end of spring when we’ll see drier conditions and elevated fire dangers,” Mr Narramore said.

“Typically an El Nino, like a La Nina, will develop in late spring and last through to autumn, generally lasting 7-9 months.

“It’s pretty unusual to go straight from La Nina to El Nino as we normally have a couple of neutral years between, but we do normally go from one to the other every few years.

“We’ve just had La Nina for 3 years which was rare and has only happened twice before.”